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Author
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Topic: Method of Madness: post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias.
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Gilgamesh
Inactive Member
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Message 61 of 253 (114337)
06-11-2004 2:08 AM
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Reply to: Message 60 by jar
06-11-2004 1:30 AM
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There is some stuff here in your post that one could really get their claws into. Tell me to sod off if I'm scratching too deep. Jar wrote:
Remember, for those of us that believe, GOD really does look out and over us. IMHO, he watches over not just Christians, but Jews, Atheists, puppies and particularly children. It's perfectly believable to me that God might have intervened even if unasked. So I could subsititute pretty pink pixies for God as the target of my prayers and expect the exact same outcome? How does one distinguish this sort of entity from the normal laws that govern the universe? or, Would our experience in the universe be any different if this God you describe, did not exist?
But let's look at the issue of unanswered prayer. First, for a believer, that never happens. The answer may not be what one expects, but it is answered. And that is an important point. It’s probably not testable. It will unlikely ever be quantified. But it works
I'm sorry but, from the outside looking in, it really doesn't seem to work at all. Case in point: my nephew (brought up in an evangelical Christian church since birth) tragically contracted insulin dependent diabetes at the age of 11. I know he prayed for healing. I know his family prayed for his healing. The answer was a lifetime condemned to dicing with death, managing his own health on a daily basis (with life threatening consequences), seriously reduced quality of life, shortened life span, accelerated aging, and blindness. Intolerably heavy stuff for an 11 year old. I'm sure he didn't pray for that. I'm sure the church would have fed him the usual bullshit: it's God's challenge for him, he will get greater rewards in heaven and, I dread to think, telling him that his faith was inadequate or his sin too great. So tell me about a scenario, imaginary if you will, where it could be demonstrated that God did not respond to a prayer... in anyway, shape or form?
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 60 by jar, posted 06-11-2004 1:30 AM | | jar has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 62 by jar, posted 06-11-2004 4:56 AM | | Gilgamesh has not replied |
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jar
Member (Idle past 425 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: 04-20-2004
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Message 62 of 253 (114362)
06-11-2004 4:56 AM
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Reply to: Message 61 by Gilgamesh
06-11-2004 2:08 AM
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I'll try to stay somewhat in the order that you posted.
So I could subsititute pretty pink pixies for God as the target of my prayers and expect the exact same outcome? If you envision GOD as a pretty pink pixie, sure. Why not? GOD is no more likely to look like the God painted on the Cistine Chapel than a pretty pink pixie. The difference is really, "Do you believe in pretty pink pixies?"
How does one distinguish this sort of entity from the normal laws that govern the universe? or, Would our experience in the universe be any different if this God you describe, did not exist? IMHO, yes our experiences of the Universe would be different should GOD not exist. But then so would you and I and I'm not at all sure that we would be able to notice the difference. Can a blind person truly understand sight?
I'm sorry but, from the outside looking in, it really doesn't seem to work at all. I understand that. I can't change that. You could, but I can't. Let me tell you two stories, both true. I was born in the first generation where it was expected that children would live and that the number one cause of women's deaths would be other than childbirth. We tend to forget how recent that is and what an amazing change that really was. I was the oldest of seven kids, and six out of the seven of us lived. One died within weeks of his birth. Of the other six, three more of us would have died had we been born only a few years earlier. I was born with an allegric reaction to milk. Fortunately, the war shortages had led to the development of soy milk and margarine. I still ended up with a reduced immune system and allergic to near everything. I have asthma, and even today, a couple times a year have severe outbreaks. During each episode it is really a question if I will make it through. Two other brothers nearly died. Again, thanks to WWII, there were antibiotics and newer drugs available and both lived, and live. I had a great aunt who had polio as a child. I can still remember the panic every summer when the threat of polio was greatest. Pools would close, a very dear friend ended up in an iron lung. Mom and dad would take us to visit and to this day, I can remember the sounds of the infernal machine, shuuunk, thunk, shuuunk thunk, and how he only spoke on the shuuunk, never on the thunk. That's life. Not always pleasant. Not always great. Sometimes horrible and frightening. Can I explain it all? No. Do I believe GOD was angry and punishing us? No. Story two, also true. You remind me of another very good friend, one that I went to school with. It was sometime after graduation. He had a house on Charles street, only a few blocks north of my apartment. Like me, he loved art. He lived in one of the typical Baltimore row houses. Imagine a long block of houses, each attached to its neighbor. As you enter you see a long narrow hallway that extends from the front door to the back wall. On the right are the stairs to the second floor. To the left is the livingroom. It opens on a dining room which in turn opens on the kitchen at the very back of the house. He had just purchased a very nice copy of Seurat's Girl Powdering and mounted it in the living room right over the fireplace mantle. When you went into the living room, there she was. Since it was a small room with high ceilings, she was little more than arms length away. It was amazing. You could see each dot of paint. Her powder puff was mostly cobalt blue and burnt umber, with dots of titanium white and sea foam green placed on top of them, but slightly offset. You could see how he placed the darker colors first, then layered the lighter colors to give it depth and highlights. But you could not see the painting. Since he was a good friend, a very good friend, I got little more than a stream of invective (thorough but not very original) as I took the picture down and marched it to the far end of the hall. A quick scrounge in the basement turned up two of the old fashioned shop lights, those with the open bulb and large aluminum reflector. Lights added I dragged him back up the long hall and made hime look at it.
His only comment was, "It's a whole different picture from here". Is it possible that you are too close? Are you seeing the technique, the dots of paint, Evolution, Science, cause and effect, but missing the picture? edited to fix spelling This message has been edited by jar, 06-11-2004 01:05 PM
Aslan is not a Tame Lion
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 61 by Gilgamesh, posted 06-11-2004 2:08 AM | | Gilgamesh has not replied |
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nator
Member (Idle past 2201 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: 12-09-2001
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quote:
Atheist worldview is critically defective because its starting assumptions (few that they be) assumes there is no God/miracles. Theism is just the opposite; many assumptions including the existence of a knowable God and His miracles. This is an irreconciable gulf - the existence of God.
I find your wording very interesting. You describe the Athiest worldview as "critically defective" because it has a starting assumption. Then you describe theism, which also has a starting assumption, as "just the opposite", which I guess I can take to mean that theism is somehow not "critically defective". The problem with this viewpoint is it is wrong. Atheism/Agnosticism does not "assume" there is no supernatural. There is no rational basis for belief in the supernatural, so nothing at all is assumed. It is the theists who assume a great deal in spite there being no evidence for the supernatural. (As an Agnostic, I will not conclude that there is no supernatural, just that I can't tell if there is or not) You are saying, in effect, that the Atheist worldview is "critically defective" because it saaumes that there are no invisible pink unicorns, and the "unicornist"s" assumptions are just the opposite.
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nator
Member (Idle past 2201 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: 12-09-2001
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As you've probably already read, yes, I am an agnostic. What does that mean? Well, for all intents and purposes, since I have not yet seen or heard of any evidence for any supernatural anything, I am what one might call a practical Atheist. However, philosophically, I am an Agnostic, because I cannot completely rule out the possibility of the supernatural due to a complete lack of evidence. Just because there is no evidence of invisible pink unicorns pushing down on our heads, this appearing to cause gravity, doesn't mean it is 100% impossible that this is happening. However, even if the supernatural existed, why do we think we could ever comprehend or understand it? IOW, if it existed, is it even knowable? I also live in the world of probabilities, as does everyone else. Is it more likely, given the claims of theists judged against the reality of life, more or less probable that the supernatural exists, inasmuch as it affects our daily lives? From where I'm standing, it is not very likely at all that the supernatural has any effect on us, if it does exist. This message has been edited by schrafinator, 06-11-2004 07:40 AM
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nator
Member (Idle past 2201 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: 12-09-2001
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quote:
To make a very long detailed story short: Micah presents the gospel of Christ to the girl all the while seeing the demon come and go throughout the room trying first to seduce him and second to kill him. The girl is healed from her multiple personality disorder for a short time, but says she does not think she can believe in Christ. Micah then sees the demon return inside of her and her symptoms resume.
So, you believe this guy? Wow.
quote:
I know this will probably not convince anyone else though as you would have to know Micah and the other girl in the room yourself to be assured of their credibility.
It's not a matter of credibility. Very credible people think lots of irrational, unfounded things. Very credible people are also less cridible than we think sometimes. If you are taking just Mica's and this woman's word for it, and nobody else but this "demon" was around, I am willing to bet that this story was maybe a way to cover up some hanky panky they decided to get up to. This message has been edited by schrafinator, 06-11-2004 07:53 AM
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 44 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-10-2004 10:22 PM | | Hangdawg13 has not replied |
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nator
Member (Idle past 2201 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: 12-09-2001
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quote:
He walks to her house and finds that she has another friend over who is talking about an "imaginary" friend. The girl leads him upstairs to the girl who is exhibiting symptoms of multiple personality disorder.
If this woman was hearing voices, then she is exhibiting symptoms of schizophrenia, not multiple personality disorder. True MPD is actually very rare, and Schizophrenia sufferers commonly start "hearing voices" or seeing people that aren't there in their early twenties. Am I guessing correctly that this is the age range we are talking about? If this is the correct age range, and she is in the early stages of developing Schizophrenia, it wouldn't be unusual for the woman's symptoms to come and go. Talking to this woman about the Gospel will not help her if she is schizophrenic, only medical treatment can. She may have a neurological disorder; there is something wrong with her brain. This message has been edited by schrafinator, 06-11-2004 08:05 AM
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 44 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-10-2004 10:22 PM | | Hangdawg13 has replied |
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nator
Member (Idle past 2201 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: 12-09-2001
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Re: Justice
quote:
Would you bind God's actions to the realm of human actions?
What you described was a horrible thing among many that have occured in human history. You mistakenly assume that if God is good and all-powerful, his character demands that no bad can exist.
But you said that nothing happens without it being allowed by God. It only logically follows that the rape and murder of a 6 year old child must be allowed by God.
quote:
I can completely understand your viewpoint, except because it is limited it is flawed. Time may seem like an awful long... well, time with an awful lot of stuff in it, but it is meaningless. What happens happens. There will be a time though when God will bring all to account and will bring justice (not equality) to all.
But this still leaves you with the problem of your claim that all things happening being allowed only through the will of God, including the rape and murder of 6 year old children.
quote:
That child who was the victim of rape and murder went to heaven.
So what? That child was tortured and suffered horribly before having their life stolen from them. Why would God put a child on the Earth just to feed the sick desires of a murderous pedophile?
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He will be blessed greatly in eternity (if that is an applicable time-based word). Jesus said many who would be first will be last in heaven, and many who would be least will be greatest. He also said it is far better to be cast into the sea with a millstone about one's neck than to harm a little one.
But what did the child learn from being raped and murdered at 6 years old? Isn't that your justification for God causing pain and suffering?
quote:
Just because God has held off his justice at the present time does not mean he will always hold it off. If indeed time is meaningless to God, then he never held it off. And if he never alowed situations of injustice, how would we, his creations, be able to comprehend his justice, righteousness, and love?
Time may be meaningless to God, but God made time meaningful to us. I can understand justice without the rape and murder of thousands of 6 year old children. I'm sorry, but there cannot be any "justice" in God allowing this to happen probably millions of times over the millenia if He is in complete control of everything. You cannot have an all-powerful God and a God of justice and love at the same time. Again, all of this is plain old post hoc reasoning. This message has been edited by schrafinator, 06-11-2004 08:27 AM
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 46 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-10-2004 10:38 PM | | Hangdawg13 has replied |
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Sleeping Dragon
Inactive Member
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To WILLOWTREE:
The Bible says if you seek after God - you won't get the devil.
Can you kindly provide quotes for this claim?
You cited Satan in a "scapegoat" context which implied that to invoke him would not be valid/acceptable. Well, no...I merely suggested Satan as a possible answer to the question. Why did I cite Satan in a "scapegoat context"? Because he seemed to be the answer to most of God's apparent blunders. Note: "Blunder" as in something occuring that is inconsistent with His original intention. For example: Why is there Evil? Because of Satan. Why did man fall? Because of Satan. Why was there a deceptive snake in a perfect Garden of Eden? That IS Satan. Why did Jesus have to die? To save us. Because we fell, and we fell because we sinned, and we sinned because of Satan! And now, we have: Why are there miracles in other religions? Me: Maybe...just maybe...could it be...Satan? Can you see from my perspective now? Answering my question with "Satan" doesn't make your answer invalid or unacceptable. It just meant that you chose an answer I have already anticipated. What's wrong with saying: "Yeah, I AM going to say it's Satan!"?
Satan performs, numerically, far fewer miracles than God, therefore, there is no way to tell the difference ? Well, no. I'm not saying that. Instead I'm saying that my impression of Satan is that he is a notch (or a couple of notches) below the rank of "God". So I was surprised that his powers could produce miracles as "miraculous" (pardon the tautology) as God. Note that by "on-par" I was referring to "miraculous-ness" (if I may coin such a term), not numerical inferiority. Certainly my expression is lacking. I apologise for your misunderstanding. ******************************************************************* In short, a summary of your view: Pray to Biblical god: If I ask God for something (say, cure my dog's cancer), and my dog is healed, this is evidence for God's miracle (God answered my prayer). If my dog dies, then this means that God is testing my faith. Pray to other Gods: If I ask anything/anyone apart from God to cure my dog of cancer, and my dog heals, it's Satan's miracle. If my dog dies, then...then what? What does it mean? Satan's not listening? Satan is testing my..."unfaith"? Please check if my summary of your perspective is correct (change if they are not) and answer the question above. Thanks. Patiently awaiting your reply.
"Respect is like money, it can only be earned. When it is given, it becomes pittance"
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Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 782 days) Posts: 1189 From: Texas Joined: 05-30-2004
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Message 69 of 253 (114479)
06-11-2004 2:25 PM
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Reply to: Message 66 by nator
06-11-2004 9:00 AM
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The girl (in her teens) was originally talking about a beautiful girl (the demon) that was with her and helped her do things and helped her see amazing things. She heard the voice and saw the beautiful creature. You are right. This is Schiziophrenia. When Micah presented the gospel to her, her eyes rolled back into her head and she appeared to lose consciousness for some minutes. Micah continued to cite scriptures that said If you believe in Jesus Christ you will be saved. At this the demon became very agitated. It came out of the girl and first tried to seduce him. When Micah simply ignored it and kept reading scriptures, the demon changed form into a hideous indescribable creature and tried to make him believe it would kill him. During this time the girl was fully conscious sitting balled up on the bed rocking back and forth clutching her knees very scared. She said though that she did not think she could believe in Christ right now. She said that her "friend" told her that Micah was lying and he wanted to kill her. Micah saw the demon re-enter the girl. The girl then exhibited the MPD symptoms. She had a complete change of character. Her face contorted and she started screaming and glaring daggers at Micah and becoming violent. She again lost consciousness as her eyes rolled back into her head. When she came to, she was herself again, but claimed to still talk to her "friend".
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 66 by nator, posted 06-11-2004 9:00 AM | | nator has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 77 by nator, posted 06-12-2004 10:25 AM | | Hangdawg13 has replied |
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Cold Foreign Object 
Suspended Member (Idle past 3079 days) Posts: 3417 Joined: 11-21-2003
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quote:
Why is there Evil?
Because of Satan.
Nope; because Adam/Eve CHOSE to sin and this act of willful disobedience then gave Satan temporary control over mankind and the Earth. Yes, it does originate from him, but only via cooperating mankind. Man is now born outside of Eden; separated from the source of life/God; under the jurisdiction of Satan.
quote:
Why did man fall?
Because of Satan.
Nope; because Eve didn't believe what God said and she chose to doubt God by listening to Satan. Adam was pussy whipped and blamed Eve. Man fell because he chose to disregard what God said. Show me from Genesis WHERE there is ANY deception by the serpent/Satan ? The serpent just plain lied and Eve knew it was a lie BECAUSE she just got done repeating to the serpent what God's orders concerning the Tree was.
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Why was there a deceptive snake in a perfect Garden of Eden?
That IS Satan.
Because God wanted it so. Satan has agreed to oppose God concerning mankind because not to agree to oppose means he must go to his eternal abode - hell. (before he has to) ALSO because God acknowledges Satan's implacable anger towards Him for choosing not to forgive him of rebelling. Satan cannot hurt God personally, he can only extract revenge for not being forgiven by destroying that which God loves - mankind. God allows this so to test mankind for the purpose of replacing the void left in heaven when Satan rebelled.
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Why are there miracles in other religions?
Me: Maybe...just maybe...could it be...Satan?
Yes, there are only TWO possible sources.
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In short, a summary of your view: Pray to Biblical god: If I ask God for something (say, cure my dog's cancer), and my dog is healed, this is evidence for God's miracle (God answered my prayer). If my dog dies, then this means that God is testing my faith. Pray to other Gods: If I ask anything/anyone apart from God to cure my dog of cancer, and my dog heals, it's Satan's miracle. If my dog dies, then...then what? What does it mean? Satan's not listening? Satan is testing my..."unfaith"? Please check if my summary of your perspective is correct (change if they are not) and answer the question above. Thanks.
No this is YOUR view of what you think my view is. YOU say to pray apart from God equals a petition to Satan. I never said or implied that. Show me where I said that ?
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Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 782 days) Posts: 1189 From: Texas Joined: 05-30-2004
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Message 71 of 253 (114564)
06-11-2004 10:14 PM
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Reply to: Message 67 by nator
06-11-2004 9:15 AM
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Re: Justice
The difference of opinion between you and I is that I believe that eternity spent in the presence of the Lord in great unimaginable blessings is more than compensation for the worst suffering possible in this finite life. It is in God's compensation that his justice and love are made known to that child. I know that if you could ask that child in heaven if he holds any grudge against God for what happened to him, he would reply no.
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 67 by nator, posted 06-11-2004 9:15 AM | | nator has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 78 by nator, posted 06-12-2004 10:32 AM | | Hangdawg13 has replied |
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Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 782 days) Posts: 1189 From: Texas Joined: 05-30-2004
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Satan is not omnipotent, omniscient, nor omnipresent. Some believers mistakenly believe Satan is responsible for all bad things. It is arrogance that led to the evil free-will decisions of Satan, his fallen angels, Adam and Eve, and every human being save Christ in human history. Arrogance is the rejection of truth in favor of lies and the attitude that the self is most important. Every evil pattern of thinking and action stems from arrogance.
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Sleeping Dragon
Inactive Member
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Message 73 of 253 (114596)
06-12-2004 12:02 AM
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Reply to: Message 72 by Hangdawg13
06-11-2004 10:20 PM
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To Hangdawg13:
Some believers mistakenly believe Satan is responsible for all bad things. I agree completely.
It is arrogance that led to the evil free-will decisions of Satan, his fallen angels, Adam and Eve, and every human being save Christ in human history. Arrogance is the rejection of truth in favor of lies and the attitude that the self is most important. Every evil pattern of thinking and action stems from arrogance. Errr.....you may wish to avoid circular reasoning. You defined evil as arrogance in the "Satan/Lucifer is...bad?" thread, granted. But then "every evil pattern of thinking and action stems from arrogance"? Evil = arrogance = evil pattern of thinking and action = evil? (By the way, I accept your definition of evil = arrogance) Thanks for your reply.
"Respect is like money, it can only be earned. When it is given, it becomes pittance"
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 72 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-11-2004 10:20 PM | | Hangdawg13 has not replied |
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Sleeping Dragon
Inactive Member
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To WILLOWTREE:
Yes, it does originate from him, but only via cooperating mankind. Man is now born outside of Eden; separated from the source of life/God; under the jurisdiction of Satan. I thought we were talking about causation. "Originate" = cause. How can something originate from you if you have not caused it?
Show me from Genesis WHERE there is ANY deception by the serpent/Satan ?
The serpent just plain lied and Eve knew it was a lie BECAUSE she just got done repeating to the serpent what God's orders concerning the Tree was. Deception is to deceive, which is to give a false impression. If the serpent lied, I would say he gave a fairly "false" impression, wouldn't you? Whether Eve knew it was a lie or not is irrelevant to whether the act itself is deception, so you kind of answered your own question by stating that the serpent lied.
Because God wanted it so. Satan has agreed to oppose God concerning mankind because not to agree to oppose means he must go to his eternal abode - hell. (before he has to) ALSO because God acknowledges Satan's implacable anger towards Him for choosing not to forgive him of rebelling. Satan cannot hurt God personally, he can only extract revenge for not being forgiven by destroying that which God loves - mankind. God allows this so to test mankind for the purpose of replacing the void left in heaven when Satan rebelled. Which part of the bible did you get this from? Is this actually written or is it speculation?
No this is YOUR view of what you think my view is. YOU say to pray apart from God equals a petition to Satan. I never said or implied that. Show me where I said that ? That's fine. I never claimed to have perfect understanding of your view. Instead of interpreting your view, why don't I go to the source and ask you: ******************************************************************* In your opinion, when I... ...pray to the Biblical god: If I ask God for something (say, cure my dog's cancer), and my dog is healed, then this shows ___________________ If my dog dies, then this shows ___________________ ...pray to other gods: If I ask other gods to cure my dog of cancer, and my dog heals, then this shows ___________________ If my dog dies, then this shows ___________________ Please fill in the blank where appropriate. Thank you for your time. ******************************************************************** Patiently awaiting your reply.
"Respect is like money, it can only be earned. When it is given, it becomes pittance"
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 75 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-12-2004 1:42 AM | | Sleeping Dragon has replied |
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Hangdawg13
Member (Idle past 782 days) Posts: 1189 From: Texas Joined: 05-30-2004
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Deception is to deceive, which is to give a false impression. If the serpent lied, I would say he gave a fairly "false" impression, wouldn't you? Whether Eve knew it was a lie or not is irrelevant to whether the act itself is deception, so you kind of answered your own question by stating that the serpent lied. I don't know if this has anything to what ya'll are discussing but... Aparently, the difference between Adam and Eve (or Esha; she didn't become Eve untill after she sinned) when they sinned is that Esha actually believed the serpents lie that she would become like God. Adam did not believe the serpent, but said, "Ah, what the hell," and ate the fruit his wife gave him anyways.
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