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Author Topic:   Method of Madness: post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias.
sfs
Member (Idle past 2563 days)
Posts: 464
From: Cambridge, MA USA
Joined: 08-27-2003


Message 4 of 253 (113430)
06-07-2004 11:02 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Gilgamesh
06-07-2004 4:45 AM


In the "True Christian" thread, schrafinator, articulated two concepts: post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias.
IMO, all theists use these techniques to maintain amd justify belief in a personal God who purportedly interacts in their life. Theists vehemently deny the charge. Nevertheless their attempts to deny that they utilise post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias, IMO they merely demonstrate that these techniques and their acceptance are institutionalised within religious belief itself.
It can be reduced to the following simple equation:
All good stuff = God's influence.
All bad stuff = Lack of faith/sin/evil/or a test by God.
Nothing ever = evidence that God doesn't interact/exist at all.
That's three equations. You seem to be confusing two rather different things. One is that theists view certain events as evidence for God's activity. The other is that theists interpret all events as God's activity. Each is true of some theists, and both are true of a subset, but neither is true of all theists. One involves purported evidence, and does (or need) not.
I am a theist. I have never suggested that good stuff is evidence for God's influence, and am intensely skeptical about faith healing and miracles. What exactly is your beef with me?
And, most definitely, God can never be subjected to a controlled test.
Well, yeah. Just as a novelist can never be subjected to a controlled test by his characters. You find this surprising?
As for your stories, the first is quite unimpressive. Doctors were a little off on their estimated healing time? Hardly unusual. The second one just sounds fishy. "Cardiac arrest" means no pulse; was that really what you meant? In any case, what's supposed to be miraculous about it?

An opinion can be argued with; a conviction is best shot. T.E. Lawrence

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Gilgamesh, posted 06-07-2004 4:45 AM Gilgamesh has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Gilgamesh, posted 06-08-2004 12:21 AM sfs has replied

  
sfs
Member (Idle past 2563 days)
Posts: 464
From: Cambridge, MA USA
Joined: 08-27-2003


Message 14 of 253 (113549)
06-08-2004 7:48 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Gilgamesh
06-08-2004 12:21 AM


My beef is with any claim of God's influence. The method used by theists to demonstrate such influence excludes any explaination that might suggest that there is no such influence.
You are still conflating evidential and nonevidential claims. I claim that God not only influences the world, but that he creates it. What I am not doing is claiming to demonstrate that.
If you do not claim any material influence by God in your life, then I have no beef with you.
I don't know what you mean by "material influence". I am claiming that God creates and sustains my life, along with the life of my pet guinea pig and lots of other lives, not to mention the existence of all of the nonliving stuff out there. Does that count?
I don't find this comparison [novel/novelist] illustrative of any point you might be trying to make.
To spell it out more: you are treating God as if he were one agent among many, and talking about creating a test for the actions of that agent. If God is the creator of all agents and actions in the universe, however, such a test makes no sense, in the same way that a test for the actions of the novelist makes no sense within the world of the book. A character can't test for the existence of the author, because the character and the test itself are all created by the author. It's not that the author has no influence in the lives of the characters -- it's that he has too much influence to be detected.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Gilgamesh, posted 06-08-2004 12:21 AM Gilgamesh has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by Gilgamesh, posted 06-08-2004 8:08 PM sfs has not replied
 Message 23 by Perdition, posted 06-09-2004 12:47 AM sfs has not replied

  
sfs
Member (Idle past 2563 days)
Posts: 464
From: Cambridge, MA USA
Joined: 08-27-2003


Message 15 of 253 (113550)
06-08-2004 7:52 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Gilgamesh
06-08-2004 12:21 AM


Cardiac arrest? Like most perpertuators of faith healing myths, I am no doctor. Is cardiac trauma a more applicable term?
The applicable term is the term that was actually given by a doctor as a diagnosis. My point is that third-hand accounts are highly unreliable; since I have no idea what actually happened to your friend, I see no reason to come up with a hypothesis to explain whatever it was that happened.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Gilgamesh, posted 06-08-2004 12:21 AM Gilgamesh has not replied

  
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