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Author Topic:   Method of Madness: post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias.
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 42 of 253 (114261)
06-10-2004 8:56 PM
Reply to: Message 39 by Cold Foreign Object
06-10-2004 6:23 PM


Because they are biased in favor of their worldview (as are theists).
Well, if that's the case, who can be trusted to investigate any claim whatsoever?
You know what the funny thing about science is? It works no matter what you believe. Try it at home. Stand in front of your TV set and believe, as hard as you can, that even though it's plugged in and it worked an hour ago, it won't work now. Go, on, believe it.
And then press the power button. Surprise! Your TV works regardless of your biased worldview.
None of us here are likely to be impressed by claims that can only be substantiated if you agree to already believe them. When your premise and your conclusion are the same thing - "assume God exists - therefore we can conclude that God exists" - you're just reasoning around in circles, and getting nowhere.
Science is science because it's designed to eliminate the biases of the participants to the greatest degree possible. What you're talking about is an excercise in mental masturbation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 39 by Cold Foreign Object, posted 06-10-2004 6:23 PM Cold Foreign Object has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 47 by Cold Foreign Object, posted 06-10-2004 10:42 PM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 52 of 253 (114287)
06-10-2004 11:23 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by Cold Foreign Object
06-10-2004 10:42 PM


But the claim we are discussing is the existence of a miracle.
Right. Which is an event, and it either happened, or it didn't. If it happened, then it left evidence that it did, or else, how would it have come to our attention in the first place?
Even a miracle is an event that happens in the universe. Therefore it should be ameinable to scientific investigation.
The non existence of miracles is atheist worldview foundational truth.
Hardly. It's more like a conclusion based on the avaliable data.
The "foundational truth" of atheism is that it is a lack of belief about the supernatural. Not a belief that it doesn't exist. It's simply the position that we trust the evidence to lead to conclusions, and we don't come to conclusions about things for which we have no evidence.
Is it ever possible that a team of theists and atheists could ever conduct reseach and experiments to verify and or debunk claims of miracle healing ?
As long as they were willing to abide by the scientific method, then yes. The method exists to make irrelevant the personal beliefs of the researcher.
If a nine-year-old girl can debunk faith healing and be published in JAMA, I rather suspect a team of atheists and theists, or a team of circus performers and dour librarians for that matter, would be able to do the same, provided they do the same thing the girl did - adhere to the scientific method.

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 54 of 253 (114290)
06-10-2004 11:28 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by Cold Foreign Object
06-10-2004 11:15 PM


In other words, miracles are excluded regardless.
It's not that they get discarded "regardless." It's just that you've chosen to define "miracle" in such a way that it's indistinguishable from ignorance.
The thing about ignorance, though, is that you can't tell if you'll always be ignorant, or if you'll learn the answer tomorrow.
If you don't like it, why don't you come up with a definition of "miracle" that is actually useful to science? If you can't define miracle in any testable way, then the simple principle of parsimony means we have to throw it out. If you're soo keen to get scientific recognition of miracles, then you have to play by science's rules, same as everyone.

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Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-11-2004 12:14 AM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 57 of 253 (114319)
06-11-2004 12:36 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by Hangdawg13
06-11-2004 12:14 AM


For the purposes of "proving" to a hardcore atheist God's action in a miracle I suppose it would have to be something beyond probability of laws of science(1 in 10^46 sound good?) or something completely unexplained by laws of science (millions of Christians vanishing worldwide).
But since science is always a work in progess, how would that prove anything? Again, how are we supposed to tell the difference between something science doesn't understand yet, and something it won't ever understand? Again, you've equated "miracle" with "ignorance", which means nothing can ever be a miracle.
As for low probabilities, well, sometimes low probability things happen. Winning the lottery is a pretty low probability, but people win the lottery. Repeated trials make low probabilities certainties.

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 76 of 253 (114609)
06-12-2004 1:45 AM
Reply to: Message 75 by Hangdawg13
06-12-2004 1:42 AM


Aparently, the difference between Adam and Eve (or Esha; she didn't become Eve untill after she sinned) when they sinned is that Esha actually believed the serpents lie that she would become like God.
If that's what happened, though, is it really a lie?

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 158 of 253 (116747)
06-19-2004 9:42 PM
Reply to: Message 156 by Hangdawg13
06-18-2004 6:54 PM


But in eternity, she will understand God's justice better seeing her rapist in eternal judgement.
Well, just to toss in an extra wrinkle, what if her rapist converts to Christianity? I mean, honestly and sincerely, and recieves forgivness from his sins from God?
Wouldn't that piss her off, maybe a little? Wouldn't she maybe think "what the fuck? It's not God's place to forgive that man, it's mine."
KIND of like if my sister was raped and murdered, I would appreciate the justice system in America a whole lot more after her murderer was arrested convicted and executed.
On the other hand, if the murderer made such a convincing speech that the President tearfully pardoned him, maybe you'd come to a completely different conclusion?
I guess the point is, one can hardly posit heaven as a place where cosmic scores are settled in a religion that believes in ultimate universal redemption for the asking.
Atheists think that if God was perfect he could produce all the desired outcomes without any pain. This is the epitome of arrogance.
Actually, it's the definition of "perfect."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-18-2004 6:54 PM Hangdawg13 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 159 by mike the wiz, posted 06-19-2004 9:55 PM crashfrog has replied
 Message 165 by Hangdawg13, posted 06-21-2004 1:05 AM crashfrog has replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 160 of 253 (116753)
06-19-2004 9:57 PM
Reply to: Message 159 by mike the wiz
06-19-2004 9:55 PM


And so I doubt Hangdawg needs heed these doubters.
"Questioners" would be the better term, I think. Like that guy in the Bible. What was his name? Oh yeah, Thomas.

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 166 of 253 (117031)
06-21-2004 4:35 AM
Reply to: Message 165 by Hangdawg13
06-21-2004 1:05 AM


Don't apply your idiocy and subjectivity to things you do not understand.
Ah, I see. The old excuse - "in the hereafter, all will be made clear." Well, that's fine, I guess.
All sins were paid for in full on the Cross by the only perfect sacrifice, Christ.
All sins were paid in full to God. What about the debts owed to other people?
I guess what I'm getting at is, it sounds like a situation where a guy owes me and Bill money. So the guy goes to Bill and says "I can't pay the debt." And Bill says "that's ok, all your debts are forgiven."
Well, that's great for the guy, but what right does Bill have to forgive debts that he isn't owed? We say that criminals have a "debt to society", and we posit heaven as a place of judgement for those who escape Earthly justice. But what right does God have to forgive that debt when it's not owed to him in the first place?
Maybe you can't understand my questions or my viewpoint, and it really doesn't matter, because I'm pretty confident God doesn't exist. But maybe you can understand why I find something hollow in a religion's attempt to portray itself as simultaneously vindictive and retributive.
This message has been edited by crashfrog, 06-21-2004 03:36 AM

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 239 of 253 (122861)
07-08-2004 1:03 AM
Reply to: Message 238 by Hangdawg13
07-07-2004 7:35 PM


Could it not be considered truth that when water is cooled below zero degrees celcius at 1 atm that it freezes?
Why? Just because that's happened every time so far that we've done the experiment?
It's called the "inductive fallacy", and it's the position that, even though a given experiment has had the same result for each of 1000 trials, you still can't be absolutely, positively certain of the outcome of the 1001st trial.
I know it seems like nit-picky hairsplitting, but it's an important realization of the limits of scientific inquiry, and the necessity of scientific tentativity. Our scientific models will always be approximations of the basic physical principles.

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 242 of 253 (123147)
07-09-2004 12:50 AM
Reply to: Message 241 by Hangdawg13
07-09-2004 12:40 AM


So, if the scientific method is the only trustworthy method of establishing fact, but science can't find truth... How the hell do we find truth? Is life just an illusion? Are we figments in the imagination of another being in another universe? Are we all simulations in a computer matrix? What the hell is life all about???
Welcome to Philosophy 101. The questions you've just asked come under the heading of "Cartesian Doubt."
Hopefully your next question is "if we can't know the difference between any of these alternatives, does it really matter?"

This message is a reply to:
 Message 241 by Hangdawg13, posted 07-09-2004 12:40 AM Hangdawg13 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 243 by Hangdawg13, posted 07-09-2004 2:31 AM crashfrog has replied
 Message 245 by coffee_addict, posted 07-09-2004 4:53 AM crashfrog has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1496 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 244 of 253 (123208)
07-09-2004 4:45 AM
Reply to: Message 243 by Hangdawg13
07-09-2004 2:31 AM


Well, does it?
I guess it's up to you, I guess. Myself I don't worry so much about what I can't ever, by definition, know.
I don't usually throw myself against brick walls, conceptual or otherwise. A difference that is no difference is no difference, as Rrhain likes to say. If there's no situation where the "real" nature of reality makes any difference, who cares?
Science is just as useful in a "fake" reality as in a "real" one, if you catch my drift.
I must have a purpose there must be a reason for everything.
Ok, but what does that have to do with the nature of reality? These are two separate questions. You'll find, I hope, that your purpose is something you have to choose for yourself. It has nothing to do with the nature of reality.
But the indescribable fulfillment I have with a relaionship with God and the incomprehensible happiness that I have as a result confirm to me that that void I feel is designed for God to fill.
Well, I'm glad it works for you, but remember that even abuse victims find fulfillment in their relationships with abusers. I recall using the same words - "indescribable" - to explain my relationship with God; it turned out that the reason I thought it was "indescribable" is because it's hard to describe the feeling of "I should be fulfilled but I'm not; maybe if I pretend I am I will be."
Your milage may vary, I guess.

This message is a reply to:
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