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Author Topic:   Religion is Evil!
Rahvin
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Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


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Message 149 of 228 (648549)
01-16-2012 1:24 PM
Reply to: Message 142 by Taz
01-15-2012 8:59 PM


Re: I read the news today, oh boy
Let the politically correct people cry bloody murder all they want. In this case, I'd rather have a few assassinations than a nuclear holocaust.
Evidence that an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons would actually spark a nuclear holocaust?
You make the assumption that the man assassinated was key to Iran's nuclear weapons program (assassinating one of a dozen nuclear engineers wouldn't do much to curb Iran's nuclear program, and would simply be a pointless murder) which may or may not be true, and then further assume that a nuclear Iran would likely result in a nuclear holocaust.
If Iran were to use some future nuclear capability against, well, anyone, Iran would itself be nuked to glass. If they launched against Israel, Iran would cease to exist (both from an Israeli counterattack, because they have nuclear weapons already, and from the US, who doesn't take kindly to Jerusalem mushroom clouds).
Your nuclear hyperventilating stinks of cold-war-era paranoia. Mutually-assured annihilation has prevented every single nuclear power (with the exception of the US, when we were the only ones with nuclear weapons and therefore were not in a state of mutually-assured annihilation) from the USSR to modern Russia to Pakistan to India to Israel and even North Korea from actually utilizing that nuclear capability.
Why do you believe that Iran, if it were to possess nuclear weapons, would for some reason break this pattern and initiate what could only possibly result in its own destruction? Do you believe all of the leaders of Iran to be suicidally stupid?

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 142 by Taz, posted 01-15-2012 8:59 PM Taz has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 155 by 1.61803, posted 01-16-2012 4:18 PM Rahvin has replied
 Message 156 by crashfrog, posted 01-16-2012 4:28 PM Rahvin has replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 157 of 228 (648575)
01-16-2012 4:35 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by 1.61803
01-16-2012 4:18 PM


Re: I read the news today, oh boy
Maybe not ALL. But anyone who denies the holocaust in this day and age can not be all too bright.
Or can be terribly racist. Or can be a politician pandering to a politically relevant group of poorly educated and/or extremely racist people.
Again...do you (or Taz) believe that the leadership of Iran is suicidally stupid? I'm well aware of their stated opinions on Israel and Jews and the Holocaust, and I find those to be frankly irrelevant to the real consideration of whether a nuclear Iran is actually likely to initiate a nuclear holocaust. Does being stupid enough to fall for holocaust-denial suddenly translate to suicide?
If North Korea isn't stupid/crazy enough to use nuclear weapons, why do you think that Iran would?
It would also be fair to mention now that, even if a state simply supplied nuclear weapons to independent terrorist groups, the specific isotope profile from the resulting weapons is very easily traceable to its point of origination. If North Korea gave a nuke to a terrorist organization to use against the US, for example, we would very easily be able to tell that the weapon came from North Korea, which would then cease to exist as a habitable region of the Earth for some decades due to the massive US retaliatory strike. So too with Iran.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by 1.61803, posted 01-16-2012 4:18 PM 1.61803 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 158 by 1.61803, posted 01-16-2012 4:43 PM Rahvin has replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 160 of 228 (648580)
01-16-2012 5:00 PM
Reply to: Message 156 by crashfrog
01-16-2012 4:28 PM


Re: I read the news today, oh boy
Probably true. I think the more realistic possibility is that fundamentalist Islam takes further hold of Iran as it has in other countries, some such faiths already believe that it will take the nuclear annihilation of Israel to bring on Qiyamah, and Iran will develop a nuclear weapon and then give it to jihadists who will then deploy it against Israel. They will either believe that Allah will shield them from reprisal or that the can start the war by proxy and avoid culpability, or that it doesn't matter and bringing on the age of the 12th Imam is worth the sacrifice of their entire nation, a kind of society-wide suicide bomb.
Exactly how does "sacrifice yourself" equate to "sacrifice your entire society?" Because that's what we're talking about here, and I think there's a rather large disconnect. I think a young, zealous jihadist may be willing to sacrifice himself in a strike against an enemy he cannot hope to significantly harm otherwise, but that he would be unwilling to sacrifice his mother, his sister, his uncle, and all of his friends for the same cause.
And again, we aren't dealing with some religious nutjob from off the street. We're talking about the leadership of Iran. Sure, they may be religious nutjobs themselves to varying degrees, but how many of them want to take an action that will result in the total destruction of Iran?
After all, they could do that now. They could just invade Israel with everything they have, right now, and likely do an awful lot of damage at the cost of Iran's existence as an independent nation. If they're not crazy enough to assure their own destruction through normal means, why would they suddenly become crazy enough to do the same thing with nuclear weapons?
And again: they cannot do "nuke by proxy." We can very easily tell where the nuclear material from a bomb originates, the best they could do would be to delay the annihilation of their nation be a few days.
Outlandish? Maybe, but how much of the US's support for Israel is directly the result of evangelical belief that Israel has to exist so that the end of the world can happen? Just ask Buz.
Right, and how many of those people have political power? Your paranoia aside, most people support Israel because Israel was set up after the Holocaust, and because Israel continues to play the antisemitism card for every single act of violence in Israel whether it fits or not, not because they feel the need to support Israel to make sure Jesus can come back. Most people agree that Buz and his buddies are insane.
The notion that you can just expect religious fundamentalists to respond to the threat of mutually assured destruction is naive.
The notion that you can expect national leaders to treat their entire nation the same way a suicide bomber treats his own life is a total non-sequitur. It's frankly stupid. Did it ever occur to you that perhaps politicians might play up their opposition to an external enemy in order to unify support for their own power?
If that were the case they wouldn't strap on dynamite vests.
Youre being an idiot. Sacrificing yourself isn't the same as sacrificing your entire nation. Al-Qaeda wants to set up a global Taliban-esque government, not get one of the most severe Islamist states that currently exist wiped off the map!
If al-Qaeda gets a nuclear weapon they will absolutely use it, and if Iran becomes able to produce nuclear weapons, why wouldn't they give them one, when doing so could only be to their benefit?
Because within days we would know the nuke was provided by Iran, and then Iran would burn. All it takes are some fallout samples and a lab.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by crashfrog, posted 01-16-2012 4:28 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 163 by crashfrog, posted 01-16-2012 6:10 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 161 of 228 (648581)
01-16-2012 5:02 PM
Reply to: Message 158 by 1.61803
01-16-2012 4:43 PM


Re: I read the news today, oh boy
I prefer to argue via reason and logic, not old proverb.
People used that same argument during the Cold War, you know. Somehow we seem to have avoided nuclear annihilation, because neither side wanted to be nuked. Seems in real life people can be smarter than freaking arachnids.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 158 by 1.61803, posted 01-16-2012 4:43 PM 1.61803 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 162 by 1.61803, posted 01-16-2012 5:16 PM Rahvin has not replied
 Message 164 by crashfrog, posted 01-16-2012 6:12 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 173 of 228 (648650)
01-17-2012 10:49 AM
Reply to: Message 172 by Straggler
01-17-2012 10:41 AM


Re: I read the news today, oh boy
5th Amendemnt - "No person shall be deprived of life without due process of law"
Now I know that this doesn't legally apply to Iranians
Which is surprising, because last I knew, Iranians were people too. You'd think if we had wanted to be so exclusive about the rights enumerated in the Constitution we would have specifically said "American Citizen" instead of "person."
But I suppose treating non-Americans as people is just too inconvenient.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 172 by Straggler, posted 01-17-2012 10:41 AM Straggler has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 195 of 228 (648773)
01-18-2012 11:45 AM
Reply to: Message 190 by crashfrog
01-18-2012 8:48 AM


You're still stuck on this "missile" paradigm when it's far more likely that Iran - eventually - would attempt to deploy their nuclear weapon as a vehicle bomb or even a "suitcase nuke".
You betray your lack of knowledge of nuclear weapons. The so-called "suitcase nuke" is not a simple device; it takes decades of research to miniaturize a nuclear weapon to the point it takes up little enough space to fit in even a non-commercial vehicle (you cannot actually carry a "suitcase nuke" like a suitcase; they're small, not light, you could put one in the trunk of a car or in an SUV. Remember, it's still filled with plutonium, which has a density of 19.74 g/cm^3, as compared to lead, which is "only" 11.34 g/cm^3, and you need enough for critical mass and the mechanism that initiates the reaction...). I'm not even positive that Iran possesses the industrial and research capacity to pull it off any time in the foreseeable future.
More pointedly, a nuke carried in a vehicle like a car bomb runs some very significant risks. You need to actually deploy such a device to a target worth hitting, which means driving it across borders and risking normal police stops. The weapon would almost certainly need to be carried in a full tractor-trailer, unless you're looking multiple decades into the future; those sorts of vehicles need to go through checkpoints for customs.
No, missiles are actually far more likely as a delivery system; Iran doesn't require ICBM capability to hit Israel. I believe they have already test-fired ground-based missiles that have a projected range capable of reaching Israel. Their task at this point is developing a nuclear weapon, and then miniaturizing it sufficiently to fit in a warhead that can be mounted on one of those missiles. Nuclear weapons are extremely heavy (being based on Uranium or Plutonium) and are usually quite large when first developed.
ICBM-interception missiles would be useless - we're talking basically about a glorified SCUD launcher, like what we saw in Desert Storm. PATRIOT missile batteries can intercept a fair number of those types of missiles if deployed (and I would imagine we would do exactly that, or sell some to Israel, if Iran becomes nuclear-capable). This means Iran would need a large first-strike capability to ensure that any targets will actually be hit. And, of course, firing a medium-range missile like that would be an act of war that would result in an immediate response, even if we didn't know the attack was nuclear yet. From both the US and Israel. And Israel has nuclear weapons. And Israel is very trigger-happy.
The difficulty isn't developing nuclear weapons, nor in making a rocket. The difficulty is miniaturizing a nuclear weapon so that it will fit on the rocket and not interfere with its range or flight profile, because a nuclear warhead is so different from conventional payloads.
I mean, the two nuclear weapons used in wartime were deployed as unguided bombs from airplanes, and that's only because you can't drive from Los Alamos to Japan. But you can drive from Tehran to Tel Aviv.
And good luck getting a nuclear weapon that far. It's easy to sneak an individual with a little equipment past customs checkpoints. Nuclear weapons are somewhat more difficult.

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 190 by crashfrog, posted 01-18-2012 8:48 AM crashfrog has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 209 of 228 (648831)
01-18-2012 7:50 PM
Reply to: Message 207 by GDR
01-18-2012 6:29 PM


Re: I read the news today, oh boy
I was implying that there is truth that exists universally whether we exist or not, and that the "Golden Rule" would be an example. (maybe even the only example), of such a truth. As it being universal it would exist exclusive of any religion or world-view if I am correct.
"Universal truths" are wishy-washy nonsense.
The "golden rule" stems from simple empathy, the ability to see other individuals as similar to oneself.
It's "universal" among humans because complex features (like brains) within a species evolve together - there's a reason that smiling is universal, a reason we can all feel sadness and happiness and anxiety and joy, a reason that a psychiatrist can prescribe the same medication to a hundred patients and have it work in roughly similar ways, and the reason is that our brains are all very similar.
Morality does not stem from the laws of physics. There is no term for fairness in the laws of motion. There is nothing in the Universe looking out for us, no special meaning from on high.
But we don't need that.
We give the Universe and our lives meaning, we create fairness, we determine right from wrong by how we want to treat others and how we want others to treat us. The answer to the question "what is the meaning of life" is "whatever you want the meaning of your life to be!"

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.
- Francis Bacon
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers

This message is a reply to:
 Message 207 by GDR, posted 01-18-2012 6:29 PM GDR has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 211 by GDR, posted 01-18-2012 8:32 PM Rahvin has not replied

  
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