CrashFrog vs. Juhrahnimo: A friendly discussion

Stephen Fretwell, once-and-future ecologist and author of Populations in a Seasonal Environment, Princeton U Press, 1972. A minor but still important piece of early ecology research that is still occasionally referenced.

Abshalom,I'm enjoying your Washington/Potomac/coin discussion. There is another aspect of some historical claims that allows us to occasionally test them: the aspect of plausibility. In the Washington case where we have two contradictory physical claims, for example, we can go to the rivers in question and see if it is physically possible (hence plausible) to pitch anything over them. We can thus easily see with a very simple experiment whether or not it is possible to throw a coin, rock or anything else across the various rivers without mechanical assistance. In the case of the Potomac, it is impossible. In the case of the Rappahanock (I used to canoe down the river a lot when I lived in Fredericksburg), it is just barely possible to throw well-chosen stone across at some places (a good "skippin' rock" will do it during low summer water). In the case of the Rappidan (the other possible location for the story), it would be easy - and even a coin could make it. So while our experiment doesn't prove that the Rappahanock was the river of choice (or, for that matter, that the event occurred at all), it is the more plausible choice.I imagine this type of logic can also be applied to other claims, such as the ones you and J are discussing. If it's physical, we should be able to test it.This message has been edited by Quetzal, 01-20-2005 11:18 AM