Political Prognostication

Some political analysis.In McCain, Clinton and Obama we have people with good, not stellar, qualifications to manage this republic. With our structure and strength of society I do not fear the fall of the republic nor for the fabric of our society with any of these leading the nation. I do have my druthers but that is not the point of this exercise.A few observations.Looking at the numbers for the last 4 presidential elections we see that the central electorate of this country is still the moderate middle class, neither Democrat nor Republican. The central electorate is mostly moderate in view with somewhat right-leaning views on defense and fiscal matters and somewhat left-leaning views on social matters. Here is where the election will be decided.Third-party candidates are novelties in this present race, as usual. Again, there are no compelling reasons for a third-party vote perceived by the central electorate and they will decide from the two major parties alone.The Republican party is most vulnerable to voter backlash at this point because of the present administration. The party’s vulnerability is stronger than it has been in many decades, probably since Herbert Hoover.This presents a major opportunity to the Democratic Party.I see the Republicans, rightfully concerned at this state of affairs, selecting a moderate Republican, war hero with likable demeanor, as their candidate. Even given the prospect of voter backlash against the present Republican administration, McCain would have had at least a fighting chance, fierce and uphill to be sure, against an adequate Democratic opponent.I see the Democrats, however, hard-charging in the direction of squandering this golden opportunity with one candidate perceived as a strident unlikeable woman and the other candidate perceived as a black moslem.Note the word “perceived” used above. Reality does not always have an influence on the American body politic.While the Republicans, acknowledging their plight, select an adequate safe-harbor candidate, the Democrats, seemingly oblivious to this reality, are engaged in a grand and risky social experiment.Regrettably, this country is not completely over its long history of racial prejudice. Barak, because of his personality, strengths and experience, may have had a fighting chance at the presidency if and only if he got very luck in the general election and McCain did something unconscionably stupid. But in this country at this time, even though he is a professed Christian, he has been tagged, unfairly to be sure, with the “moslem” label. A “Black Moslem” is too much of a sea change for the central electorate to handle. Obama is a losing proposition for the Democrats.At this late point in the election cycle Hillary is the only viable candidate left for the Democrats. But Barak leads the delegate count, barely, and may go to convention with a minor lead over Hillary.Predictions:1. Using the mechanism of the Super Delegate process, the Democratic leadership will do all that it can to cajole, threaten and otherwise broker Hillary into the nomination. Be prepared for a nasty bloody battle in Denver. Even if the leadership is successful, because of her sex and the perception of her personality, Hillary will have a fierce uphill battle in the general election.2. Regardless of the Democrat’s selection, if McCain can do three things: keep a moderate platform out in front, keep pointing to Clinton/Obama on the far left, and keep from shooting himself in the face: then the Republicans will retain the presidency.

So true. However, the election will be decided by the middle, not the wings. For this Democratic social experiment the party is looking at the wrong woman and at the wrong black. Obama is unelectable by the middle of the electorate. Clinton's personality and history greatly detract from her standing.The most negative aspect being that either one losing this election to McCain will make it that much more difficult for a stellar black or a stellar woman to win in the future. I fear what is coming across is the bitterness and the bloodletting. Shades of Chicago 1968 (without the riots), and we all remember how that turned out. Agreed. Thus the brokered convention.

This early in the process in 1992 Bush Sr. was shown to be well in the lead over the Other Clinton.These early polls may of interest now, but when the middle begins to solidify all things change.

From the OP:

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Regrettably, this country is not completely over its long history of racial prejudice. Barak, because of his personality, strengths and experience, may have had a fighting chance at the presidency if and only if he got very luck in the general election and McCain did something unconscionably stupid. But in this country at this time, even though he is a professed Christian, he has been tagged, unfairly to be sure, with the “moslem” label. A “Black Moslem” is too much of a sea change for the central electorate to handle. Obama is a losing proposition for the Democrats.

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Among Democrats in the west, yes. It says nothing about electability in a general election, where I predict Obama will be unable to prevail. I would think the Super-delegates would see this as well.

There is no doubt in my mind that a black can be elected to be president. I think you are right that a majority of the electorate could support a qualified, intelligent black for president. It would be a substantial sea change for them to so vote but I agree such is a good political possibility these days. And Obama has all the attributes for such a post.Now add the "moslem" label.Unfair as it is, he is being so labeled.In this country, in this time, with this central electorate, "black moslem" presents too much of a change.The moderate middle-class majority will not go there given the state of world affairs today.

And the Republicans will do so under the covers and in the rumor mills of the internet. Already the conservative Talk Radio folk are speaking it up in not-so-hidden terms.But then you have Bob Kerrey in Iowa, after endorsing Clinton, commenting about Hussein and his moslem experiences. These are the Clintons and we have seen in Bill's campaigns and Hillary's Senate campaign they are not beyond getting in the trenches in very subtle ways. If Barak can push Hillary to the ropes, as it appears he is, every button will be pushed including this one. This is politics and Hillary can be very good at it.

That is the hypothesis. A black candidate would have a rough time but I think this country has progressed to such a point that national success is achievable. The “moslem” label is quite rough in itself. I do not think a professed moslem can yet win a national election in the US. The combination, “black moslem,” even as a subtle perception, is a definite loser.Sticking the “moslem” label on Obama has already been done, from both sides. Shaking it off will be difficult at best, if not impossible.An interesting aside: The American Jewish community is in a pickle. The Florida community is not so much pro-Hillary as anti-Obama as judged by their letters to local newspapers and reports, all questioning Obama’s “moslem background.” Then the Jerusalem Post in their Feb 21 Editorial not only brought up a moslem connection but tried to tie Obama at the hip to Louis Farrakhan.Anyway, the label has been applied and all that is needed now is to reinforce the perception in subtle ways like Bob Kerrey’s endorsement of Hillary in Iowa, conservative Talk Radio, etc. Watch the papers, editorials, news mags, etc., for the subtle juxtapositions of Obama and moslem and references to Farrakhan.This will get into the minds of the great middle-class voting bloc and stay there. Repeated often enough and subtle enough, the big lie can work its demented magic. My contention is that the super delegates will be wined, dined, twisted, cajoled and threatened into the Hillary camp using the Obama/moslem perception of the middle-class as their reasoning why the party would not succeed with Obama at the top of the ticket. The supers will vote for whatever will help their own chances at re-election and the argument that Obama/moslem is perceived by the electorate, is not going to go away and will thus be a loser for the both the top and down ticket, is an argument that will have force with them. I disagree. The Clinton “machine” is wholly personal and self-serving. Without an immediate personal goal on the horizon, should Hillary lose the nomination to Barak, the “machine” will slip quietly into low gear paying periodic lip service to the nominee while trying to soothe its battered ego. Al Gore knows all about this only too well.

Nothing personal taken, H. Frankly I hope I am proven wrong. It would mean this country has progressed a lot further than I assess.But, I doubt it.We shall see. On to Denver.