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Author Topic:   Political Prognostication
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 1 of 67 (459561)
03-08-2008 3:40 PM


Some political analysis.
In McCain, Clinton and Obama we have people with good, not stellar, qualifications to manage this republic. With our structure and strength of society I do not fear the fall of the republic nor for the fabric of our society with any of these leading the nation. I do have my druthers but that is not the point of this exercise.
A few observations.
Looking at the numbers for the last 4 presidential elections we see that the central electorate of this country is still the moderate middle class, neither Democrat nor Republican. The central electorate is mostly moderate in view with somewhat right-leaning views on defense and fiscal matters and somewhat left-leaning views on social matters. Here is where the election will be decided.
Third-party candidates are novelties in this present race, as usual. Again, there are no compelling reasons for a third-party vote perceived by the central electorate and they will decide from the two major parties alone.
The Republican party is most vulnerable to voter backlash at this point because of the present administration. The party’s vulnerability is stronger than it has been in many decades, probably since Herbert Hoover.
This presents a major opportunity to the Democratic Party.
I see the Republicans, rightfully concerned at this state of affairs, selecting a moderate Republican, war hero with likable demeanor, as their candidate. Even given the prospect of voter backlash against the present Republican administration, McCain would have had at least a fighting chance, fierce and uphill to be sure, against an adequate Democratic opponent.
I see the Democrats, however, hard-charging in the direction of squandering this golden opportunity with one candidate perceived as a strident unlikeable woman and the other candidate perceived as a black moslem.
Note the word “perceived” used above. Reality does not always have an influence on the American body politic.
While the Republicans, acknowledging their plight, select an adequate safe-harbor candidate, the Democrats, seemingly oblivious to this reality, are engaged in a grand and risky social experiment.
Regrettably, this country is not completely over its long history of racial prejudice. Barak, because of his personality, strengths and experience, may have had a fighting chance at the presidency if and only if he got very luck in the general election and McCain did something unconscionably stupid. But in this country at this time, even though he is a professed Christian, he has been tagged, unfairly to be sure, with the “moslem” label. A “Black Moslem” is too much of a sea change for the central electorate to handle. Obama is a losing proposition for the Democrats.
At this late point in the election cycle Hillary is the only viable candidate left for the Democrats. But Barak leads the delegate count, barely, and may go to convention with a minor lead over Hillary.
Predictions:
1. Using the mechanism of the Super Delegate process, the Democratic leadership will do all that it can to cajole, threaten and otherwise broker Hillary into the nomination. Be prepared for a nasty bloody battle in Denver. Even if the leadership is successful, because of her sex and the perception of her personality, Hillary will have a fierce uphill battle in the general election.
2. Regardless of the Democrat’s selection, if McCain can do three things: keep a moderate platform out in front, keep pointing to Clinton/Obama on the far left, and keep from shooting himself in the face: then the Republicans will retain the presidency.

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by RAZD, posted 03-08-2008 4:16 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 3 by Chiroptera, posted 03-08-2008 4:29 PM AZPaul3 has not replied
 Message 6 by fallacycop, posted 03-08-2008 6:43 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 9 by tesla, posted 03-08-2008 7:29 PM AZPaul3 has not replied
 Message 61 by fallacycop, posted 10-10-2008 12:59 AM AZPaul3 has not replied
 Message 62 by fallacycop, posted 11-15-2008 1:59 AM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1404 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 2 of 67 (459567)
03-08-2008 4:16 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by AZPaul3
03-08-2008 3:40 PM


A different take
I see the Democrats, however, hard-charging in the direction of squandering this golden opportunity with one candidate perceived as a strident unlikeable woman and the other candidate perceived as a black moslem.
Prejudices are hard to overcome, however may prejudiced people are staunch right wing and may stay home rather than vote for McCain, because McCain has crossed the line too many times.
I see this as an opportunity to explore both a black and a female candidate and taste the true waters of this country. One that may not come again for some time if not taken.
It also is a great opportunity to get the both the democratic social message across while McCain sits in the background, as both Barak and Hillary discuss their programs to attract voters, and the democratic foreign policy message as Barak and Hillary trade 3am comments.
The republican convention will be ho-hum. The democratic convention will be exciting. Weaknesses in any candidate can be filled by VP the choice, and it will be interesting to see where this goes.
1. Using the mechanism of the Super Delegate process,...
Most of the superdelegates will be interested in their own election - they are predominantly people running for office - and in who will be best able to help them, rather than toe a party line. Their primary concern will thus be electablity.
Enjoy.

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by AZPaul3, posted 03-08-2008 3:40 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 7 by AZPaul3, posted 03-08-2008 7:09 PM RAZD has replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 3 of 67 (459570)
03-08-2008 4:29 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by AZPaul3
03-08-2008 3:40 PM


I see the Republicans, rightfully concerned at this state of affairs, selecting a moderate Republican, war hero with likable demeanor, as their candidate....
Note the word “perceived” used above.
[Bolding added.]
And McCain's so-called "moderateness" may be yet another of these "perceptions". From a not too recent article from The Nation:
quote:
In fact, McCain has always been far more conservative than either his supporters or detractors acknowledge. In 2004 he earned a perfect 100 percent rating from Phyllis Schlafly's Eagle Forum and a 0 percent from NARAL. Citizens Against Government Waste dubs him a "taxpayer hero." He has opposed extension of the assault-weapons ban, federal hate crimes legislation and the International Criminal Court. He has supported school vouchers, a missile defense shield and private accounts for Social Security. Well before 9/11 McCain advocated a new Reagan Doctrine of "rogue-state rollback."
As far as I know, McCain is still all for continuing the war in Iraq and even escalating it in Iran, but I may have missed recent news on this.
But your point is valid: a perceived moderate Republican stands a pretty good chance of beating a black candidate or a Clinton.
-
Reality does not always have an influence on the American body politic.
To be fair to the American public, extensive knowledge of public policy issues is really kind of useless in a country that isn't a functioning democracy.

...Onward to Victory is the last great illusion the Republican Party has left to sell in this country, even to its own followers. They can't sell fiscal responsibility, they can't sell "values," they can't sell competence, they can't sell small government, they can't even sell the economy. -- Matt Taibbi

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by Modulous, posted 03-08-2008 5:48 PM Chiroptera has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 4 of 67 (459585)
03-08-2008 5:48 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Chiroptera
03-08-2008 4:29 PM


As far as I know, McCain is still all for continuing the war in Iraq and even escalating it in Iran, but I may have missed recent news on this.
His 'own' website states
quote:
A greater military commitment now is necessary if we are to achieve long-term success in Iraq. John McCain agrees with retired Army General Jack Keane that there are simply not enough American forces in Iraq. More troops are necessary to clear and hold insurgent strongholds; to provide security for rebuilding local institutions and economies; to halt sectarian violence in Baghdad and disarm Sunni and Shia militias; to dismantle al Qaeda; to train the Iraqi Army; and to embed American personnel in Iraqi police units. Accomplishing each of these goals will require more troops and is a crucial prerequisite for needed economic and political development in the country. America's ultimate strategy is to give Iraqis the capabilities to govern and secure their own country.
On the same site he states that Iran is an outlaw state and we should build up missile defence to circumvent any attack from them - though I don't see anything there about escalating it beyond that.
Yeah, I'm not really adding much to the discussion, but I thought I'd share some input with you.
Edited by Modulous, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by Chiroptera, posted 03-08-2008 4:29 PM Chiroptera has replied

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Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 5 of 67 (459591)
03-08-2008 6:40 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by Modulous
03-08-2008 5:48 PM


Hi, Modulous.
On the same site he states that Iran is an outlaw state and we should build up missile defence to circumvent any attack from them - though I don't see anything there about escalating it beyond that.
Like the citizens of the former Soviet Union reading Pravda, in the US we Americans need to try to decode the code phrases that are fed to us in order to figure out the intentions of our leaders.
-
Yeah, I'm not really adding much to the discussion, but I thought I'd share some input with you.
Always welcome, Mod.
But I don't want to run the topic off the tracks.
Whether he's truly a moderate or not, McCain is perceived as one. As such, he is the worst (from a Democrat perspective) candidate that could have been nominated. From the perspective of a US citizen, McCain is the worst possible candidate -- another bat-shit insane conservative to whom the "liberal" media will annoint as the "moderate" candidate.
Frankly, I think it is going to be very, very tough for Obama to beat him. Not impossible, but a black man running against a "moderate" Republican? Already, "middle name Hussein" is already being brought out at the code word for, "he's black, folks."
Clinton wouldn't have it so hard, I think. I think the American people would be more likely to vote for a white woman than a black man. And being a Clinton might actually help her. One thing that has always pissed the conservatives off is how popular Bill was among the American public. Plus, she's also less conservative than McCain, so she might also get labeled as "moderate," if the "liberal" media can keep from falling into the "Democrat = liberal = socialist" hole.
Added by edit:
I forgot to mention that the link in my signature is Taibbi's take on McCain.
Edited by Chiroptera, : No reason given.

...Onward to Victory is the last great illusion the Republican Party has left to sell in this country, even to its own followers. They can't sell fiscal responsibility, they can't sell "values," they can't sell competence, they can't sell small government, they can't even sell the economy. -- Matt Taibbi

This message is a reply to:
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fallacycop
Member (Idle past 5520 days)
Posts: 692
From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil
Joined: 02-18-2006


Message 6 of 67 (459592)
03-08-2008 6:43 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by AZPaul3
03-08-2008 3:40 PM


Obama is a losing proposition for the Democrats.
At this late point in the election cycle Hillary is the only viable candidate left for the Democrats.
Are you reading the same polls I read?
1
2

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by AZPaul3, posted 03-08-2008 3:40 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by AZPaul3, posted 03-08-2008 7:15 PM fallacycop has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 7 of 67 (459597)
03-08-2008 7:09 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by RAZD
03-08-2008 4:16 PM


Re: A different take
Prejudices are hard to overcome, however may prejudiced people are staunch right wing and may stay home rather than vote for McCain, because McCain has crossed the line too many times.
So true. However, the election will be decided by the middle, not the wings.
I see this as an opportunity to explore both a black and a female candidate and taste the true waters of this country. One that may not come again for some time if not taken.
For this Democratic social experiment the party is looking at the wrong woman and at the wrong black. Obama is unelectable by the middle of the electorate. Clinton's personality and history greatly detract from her standing.
The most negative aspect being that either one losing this election to McCain will make it that much more difficult for a stellar black or a stellar woman to win in the future.
It also is a great opportunity to get the both the democratic social message across while McCain sits in the background, as both Barak and Hillary discuss their programs to attract voters, and the democratic foreign policy message as Barak and Hillary trade 3am comments.
I fear what is coming across is the bitterness and the bloodletting.
The republican convention will be ho-hum. The democratic convention will be exciting. Weaknesses in any candidate can be filled by VP the choice, and it will be interesting to see where this goes.
Shades of Chicago 1968 (without the riots), and we all remember how that turned out.
Most of the superdelegates will be interested in their own election - they are predominantly people running for office - and in who will be best able to help them, rather than toe a party line. Their primary concern will thus be electablity.
Agreed. Thus the brokered convention.

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Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by fallacycop, posted 03-08-2008 8:43 PM AZPaul3 has replied
 Message 32 by RAZD, posted 03-09-2008 11:40 AM AZPaul3 has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 8 of 67 (459599)
03-08-2008 7:15 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by fallacycop
03-08-2008 6:43 PM


Ghost of The Other Clinton
Are you reading the same polls I read?
This early in the process in 1992 Bush Sr. was shown to be well in the lead over the Other Clinton.
These early polls may of interest now, but when the middle begins to solidify all things change.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by fallacycop, posted 03-08-2008 6:43 PM fallacycop has replied

Replies to this message:
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tesla
Member (Idle past 1592 days)
Posts: 1199
Joined: 12-22-2007


Message 9 of 67 (459602)
03-08-2008 7:29 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by AZPaul3
03-08-2008 3:40 PM


i predict
if Clinton wins the nomination, more than likely McCain will become resident. i have always been democratic by nature, but have voted republican because i have been a conservative, and too many of the democrats against the republican nominations have been so liberal they throw even morality to the dogs.
Obama however is very straight forward. i am enthusiastic about his views on gun control. well more to the point, his backing of the right to bear arms, as well as his proposal to kill the IRS. which would make this nation much richer and strengthen our dollar, which would strengthen our economy on the global platform.
i will not vote for a woman in politics because I'm a conservative. and a woman has their place in the world, and things they are better suited for than men. but men were made to rule. and their minds are set to consider things in this fashion. a woman is made to rule man. but the man to make the final decision. so i will not vote for Hilary if she wins the nomination.
as a whole, the US is not ready for a woman president i dont believe. the political primaries that show her winning only shows the population of democrats that support her. but taking into consideration that obama's name, or other potential candidates names, were not even on ballots to choose, therefore many (including me) did not bother to even vote in these primaries. and then ;looking at the republican base that supports McCain (i also would support McCain, and I'm a Democrat)you'll find that the majority of the US would rather support a conservative president with a desire and force of will to make changes for the better of the country.
here i feel is the greatest needs facing the candidate by the desire of the people:
1: change
(health care, trade, war, economy, etc)
2: moral conservation
if a candidate was to hit these issues correctly, they would win the election fairly effectively. IMO.

keep your mind from this way of enquiry, for never will you show that not-being is
~parmenides

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Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by Taz, posted 03-08-2008 7:38 PM tesla has replied
 Message 13 by Granny Magda, posted 03-08-2008 7:56 PM tesla has replied

  
Taz
Member (Idle past 3291 days)
Posts: 5069
From: Zerus
Joined: 07-18-2006


Message 10 of 67 (459603)
03-08-2008 7:38 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by tesla
03-08-2008 7:29 PM


Re: i predict
tesla writes:
if a candidate was to hit these issues correctly, they would win the election fairly effectively. IMO.
Does this mean that after the election you will finally start hitting that shift button to capitalize letters at beginning of sentences?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by tesla, posted 03-08-2008 7:29 PM tesla has replied

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 Message 11 by tesla, posted 03-08-2008 7:43 PM Taz has replied

  
tesla
Member (Idle past 1592 days)
Posts: 1199
Joined: 12-22-2007


Message 11 of 67 (459605)
03-08-2008 7:43 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Taz
03-08-2008 7:38 PM


Re: i predict
lol i know it call me lazy or unschooled, i type with two fingers and shifting just causes me so many typos i just say to hell with it.

keep your mind from this way of enquiry, for never will you show that not-being is
~parmenides

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Taz, posted 03-08-2008 7:38 PM Taz has replied

Replies to this message:
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fallacycop
Member (Idle past 5520 days)
Posts: 692
From: Fortaleza-CE Brazil
Joined: 02-18-2006


Message 12 of 67 (459607)
03-08-2008 7:55 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by AZPaul3
03-08-2008 7:15 PM


Re: Ghost of The Other Clinton
These early polls may of interest now, but when the middle begins to solidify all things change.
No doubt things can change, But you cathegorically declared Obama unellectable. I don't think it's that simple.

This message is a reply to:
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Granny Magda
Member
Posts: 2462
From: UK
Joined: 11-12-2007
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 13 of 67 (459608)
03-08-2008 7:56 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by tesla
03-08-2008 7:29 PM


Re: i predict
i will not vote for a woman in politics because I'm a conservative. and a woman has their place in the world, and things they are better suited for than men.
Like cooking, cleaning and general household drudgery I assume. Compare and contrast with the following;
"i will not vote for a negro in politics because I'm a conservative. and a negro has their place in the world, and things they are better suited for than whites."
What exactly makes you think that that your statement is any more acceptable than the one above?

Mutate and Survive

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by tesla, posted 03-08-2008 7:29 PM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 14 by tesla, posted 03-08-2008 8:09 PM Granny Magda has replied

  
tesla
Member (Idle past 1592 days)
Posts: 1199
Joined: 12-22-2007


Message 14 of 67 (459610)
03-08-2008 8:09 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Granny Magda
03-08-2008 7:56 PM


Re: i predict
race does have an effect on thought process, but not like gender.
a woman is more caring, but men more logically cold. sometimes the best course of action is not the emotionally desired decision. women are more inclined to react emotionally than a man. its just our natures. there are exceptions, but given Clinton's antics towards obama of slander, i would say she is a perfect representation of how a woman's emotions can override a cooler logic.
(as a whole)today people have less depth. its rare for a discussion of politics and religion and philosophy to be a normal occurrence. most times its money, relationships, or simplistic event memories over a beer and a hoot of " why do you drink?" this lack of depth and narcissism which has been promoted by society has allowed people to take less serious consideration of dangerous decisions and the narcissism leads to ignoring the next generations needs until its going to slap them in the face politically, or in their time.
because of this now broad view of the people candidates and voters both, would now allow a woman as a president. especially since the family structure is now a string of divorce, so essentially, "nothing is certain" has become a foundation for even what we used to have in "marriage". and mostly this is due to our becoming a more and more selfish and narcissistic society.
however, the family institution is not yet completely destroyed, and as a whole, the population will most likely not rally behind a female candidate.
Edited by tesla, : do=due

keep your mind from this way of enquiry, for never will you show that not-being is
~parmenides

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 Message 13 by Granny Magda, posted 03-08-2008 7:56 PM Granny Magda has replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 18 by fallacycop, posted 03-08-2008 8:53 PM tesla has replied

  
Granny Magda
Member
Posts: 2462
From: UK
Joined: 11-12-2007
Member Rating: 4.0


Message 15 of 67 (459611)
03-08-2008 8:41 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by tesla
03-08-2008 8:09 PM


Re: i predict
race does have an effect on thought process, but not like gender.
I'd love to see you back up that racist crap with some actual evidence there tesla.
a woman is more caring
What, like Maggie Thatcher? Yeah, she was a veritable sweetheart. When she was in power over here, Britain positively rejoiced in warm, fuzzy, caring happiness. Apart from the riots...and the strikes... and that war...
a woman is more caring, but men more logically cold.
Again, this is just your opinion. There is no evidence for this, it's just your excuse for bigotry.
Clinton's antics towards obama of slander, i would say she is a perfect representation of how a woman's emotions can override a cooler logic.
Oh please! Clinton knows about slander all right, she was the victim of numerous slanders from the predominantly male Republican party during Bill's time in office.
If you came out with some sexist crap like this during the process of employing a toilet cleaner you would almost certainly be at risk of being prosecuted under gender discrimination laws (in the UK at least, I assume that the US is similar in this regard). I have no idea why you seem to think that this kind of discrimination is somehow more acceptable when deciding who gets the most important job on the planet.
What you say about the shallow nature of the modern electorate may have a grain of truth in it, but what you say afterwards doesn't follow on from it at all;
because of this now broad view of the people candidates and voters both, would now allow a woman as a president.
Ah, I see. The reason other people are less bigoted than you, is because they're shallow. It's not just because you would rather keep women in their place, as good little domestics slaves, oh no.
the population will most likely not rally behind a female candidate.
That must be why she lost so badly in New York and why she's way behind in the primaries. Except...wait a minute...
P.S. I type with the two finger "point and stab" method too, and I seem to manage to capitalise my posts. Just take your time; it's not a race.
Edited by Granny Magda, : Added PS

Mutate and Survive

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