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Author Topic:   Political Prognostication
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1405 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 46 of 67 (459789)
03-09-2008 8:39 PM
Reply to: Message 43 by Grizz
03-09-2008 7:31 PM


Re: Obama takes Wyoming
and try to dig up more photos of him in Muslim garb.
Photoshop
the campaign will no doubt use every clandestine opportunity to freak people
Don't you wonder when people will get tired of this kind of politics?
Enjoy?

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
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This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by Grizz, posted 03-09-2008 7:31 PM Grizz has not replied

  
Taz
Member (Idle past 3291 days)
Posts: 5069
From: Zerus
Joined: 07-18-2006


Message 47 of 67 (459791)
03-09-2008 9:04 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by Grizz
03-09-2008 8:17 PM


Re: Obama takes Wyoming
Grizz writes:
Democrats are simply not electable there - Montana as well.
Which is why a lot of us call last election a battle between urban and rural areas.
I have had to stop alongside the road a few times after missing the road sign -"200 miles until the next service stop."
I know what you mean. My friends and I once missed such a sign, too. We were getting quite desperate when our fuel was getting really really low. Finally, we found a "gas station" in the middle of no where. We paid the guy and he started siphoning the gas into our car with a hand pump.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by Grizz, posted 03-09-2008 8:17 PM Grizz has not replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5819 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 48 of 67 (459792)
03-09-2008 9:06 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by AZPaul3
03-09-2008 7:16 PM


Re: Obama takes Wyoming
In this country, in this time, with this central electorate, "black moslem" presents too much of a change.
I guess that I can agree, if for some reason the republican party can stick Obama with such a label, he will have a hard time.
However, I don't think most dems would fall for that as they would see it for the trick it is. I don't think most independents will fall for that either. I think the only group that maneuver would effect in any meaningful number are possible republican defections.
I don't feel that would be great enough to win an election for McCain, and I don't think super-delegates ought to be keeping that in mind.
As it stands, easier than placing that false image on Obama, will be pinning the real image of Bill Clinton on Hillary, or the false specter of Socialism on Hillary. Both are divisive issues which can do more than prevent rep defections. Hillary seems to be more susceptible to labeling than Barak, they can aim for her husband as well and hit the same target.
Finally, if McCain tries to use such false labeling on Obama and he fails, I think that might result in a backlash reps would NOT want to see. Given that he had been such a target by Bush, he is likely to appeal to it less anyway, and like I said it would create a backlash as all reps will be seen as overt mud-slingers. He is claiming to be bringing change, that would not be change.

h
"Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." - Robert E. Howard

This message is a reply to:
 Message 42 by AZPaul3, posted 03-09-2008 7:16 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 49 by AZPaul3, posted 03-10-2008 12:52 PM Silent H has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 49 of 67 (459876)
03-10-2008 12:52 PM
Reply to: Message 48 by Silent H
03-09-2008 9:06 PM


Re: Obama takes Wyoming
In this country, in this time, with this central electorate, "black moslem" presents too much of a change.
I guess that I can agree, if for some reason the republican party can stick Obama with such a label, he will have a hard time.
And the Republicans will do so under the covers and in the rumor mills of the internet. Already the conservative Talk Radio folk are speaking it up in not-so-hidden terms.
But then you have Bob Kerrey in Iowa, after endorsing Clinton, commenting about Hussein and his moslem experiences. These are the Clintons and we have seen in Bill's campaigns and Hillary's Senate campaign they are not beyond getting in the trenches in very subtle ways. If Barak can push Hillary to the ropes, as it appears he is, every button will be pushed including this one. This is politics and Hillary can be very good at it.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Silent H, posted 03-11-2008 5:53 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5819 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 50 of 67 (459973)
03-11-2008 5:53 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by AZPaul3
03-10-2008 12:52 PM


Re: Obama takes Wyoming
Reps will certainly try to stick any label they can on Obama. But there is a difference between trying and succeeding. I can agree the smear you suggest will be one of the more likely to be tried, but do you really think it will sway dems or independents in the general election?
As far as Hillary's people using that tactic... this alone should be good reason for any thinking person not to support Hillary. Your argument about super-delegates taking such smears into consideration for Barack seems to whither away with such a reality about Hillary.
I would also note, whatever Hillary does right now, if Obama wins the nomination you will see her machine fight any such slander against him in the general election.
After all, look what the Reps made of McCain in the lead up to 2000... and where are all their accusations now?
My opinion is that in a general election Obama has the ability to not only energize dems (I don't see him losing many) but also pulling in independents (like myself) and some reps. Hillary simply does not have that kind of clout, particularly against McCain. McCain can at best prevent rep losses with the smear you are suggesting, and would have equal fodder against Hillary (using woman=weak on war, her stated position on the Iraq vote=flip-flopper and weak on war, Bill Clinton back in white house).

h
"Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." - Robert E. Howard

This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by AZPaul3, posted 03-10-2008 12:52 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by AZPaul3, posted 03-13-2008 3:01 PM Silent H has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 51 of 67 (460237)
03-13-2008 3:01 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by Silent H
03-11-2008 5:53 PM


Sand In The Machine
Reps will certainly try to stick any label they can on Obama. But there is a difference between trying and succeeding. I can agree the smear you suggest will be one of the more likely to be tried, but do you really think it will sway dems or independents in the general election?
That is the hypothesis. A black candidate would have a rough time but I think this country has progressed to such a point that national success is achievable. The “moslem” label is quite rough in itself. I do not think a professed moslem can yet win a national election in the US. The combination, “black moslem,” even as a subtle perception, is a definite loser.
Sticking the “moslem” label on Obama has already been done, from both sides. Shaking it off will be difficult at best, if not impossible.
An interesting aside: The American Jewish community is in a pickle. The Florida community is not so much pro-Hillary as anti-Obama as judged by their letters to local newspapers and reports, all questioning Obama’s “moslem background.” Then the Jerusalem Post in their Feb 21 Editorial not only brought up a moslem connection but tried to tie Obama at the hip to Louis Farrakhan.
Anyway, the label has been applied and all that is needed now is to reinforce the perception in subtle ways like Bob Kerrey’s endorsement of Hillary in Iowa, conservative Talk Radio, etc. Watch the papers, editorials, news mags, etc., for the subtle juxtapositions of Obama and moslem and references to Farrakhan.
This will get into the minds of the great middle-class voting bloc and stay there. Repeated often enough and subtle enough, the big lie can work its demented magic.
As far as Hillary's people using that tactic... this alone should be good reason for any thinking person not to support Hillary. Your argument about super-delegates taking such smears into consideration for Barack seems to whither away with such a reality about Hillary.
My contention is that the super delegates will be wined, dined, twisted, cajoled and threatened into the Hillary camp using the Obama/moslem perception of the middle-class as their reasoning why the party would not succeed with Obama at the top of the ticket. The supers will vote for whatever will help their own chances at re-election and the argument that Obama/moslem is perceived by the electorate, is not going to go away and will thus be a loser for the both the top and down ticket, is an argument that will have force with them.
I would also note, whatever Hillary does right now, if Obama wins the nomination you will see her machine fight any such slander against him in the general election.
I disagree. The Clinton “machine” is wholly personal and self-serving. Without an immediate personal goal on the horizon, should Hillary lose the nomination to Barak, the “machine” will slip quietly into low gear paying periodic lip service to the nominee while trying to soothe its battered ego. Al Gore knows all about this only too well.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by Silent H, posted 03-11-2008 5:53 PM Silent H has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 52 by Silent H, posted 03-13-2008 6:49 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5819 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 52 of 67 (460259)
03-13-2008 6:49 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by AZPaul3
03-13-2008 3:01 PM


Re: Sand In The Machine
Well I disagree with your hypothesis, and... nothing personal... hope you are proven wrong.
Sticking the “moslem” label on Obama has already been done, from both sides. Shaking it off will be difficult at best, if not impossible.
Attempts have been made, but I simply do not see it sticking in any real way. The most you bring up for evidence are small groups who are unlikely to effect the general election, and that is assuming they would choose to vote for McCain out of such errant fears.
And I'm still not sure how difficult it would be to shake off, much less that it would be impossible. It isn't true and the facts are there for everyone. I can't see a bald-face lie swinging a general election. I mean if confronted, would McCain publicly state that Obama is not Xian? I don't think he'd be that stupid or mean.
This will get into the minds of the great middle-class voting bloc and stay there. Repeated often enough and subtle enough, the big lie can work its demented magic.
Or we can also repeat that such a thing would be a problem, until people actually believe it. Personally I'm for one of the first nearly pure (for politics) issue centered elections.
The Clinton “machine” is wholly personal and self-serving. Without an immediate personal goal on the horizon, should Hillary lose the nomination to Barak, the “machine” will slip quietly into low gear paying periodic lip service to the nominee while trying to soothe its battered ego.
Whereas I can agree with your cynicism, which is why I'd rather not vote for Hillary, I don't think they'd view a McCain win as worthwhile for themselves at all.
The dems really need Prez victory. If that can't win it this year, when will they be able to? McCain is not an idiot like Bush and if he manages to pull the country back to any decent shape, the dems will be locked out for a long time to come. What's worse, he'd act as a great fig leaf for the Bush years.
Hillary would be better served with Obama beating McCain, if he beats her. Note that is especially true if she is for healthcare. She might not like his plan, but it beats the hell out of McCain's.

h
"Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." - Robert E. Howard

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by AZPaul3, posted 03-13-2008 3:01 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 53 by AZPaul3, posted 03-13-2008 8:04 PM Silent H has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8513
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 53 of 67 (460271)
03-13-2008 8:04 PM
Reply to: Message 52 by Silent H
03-13-2008 6:49 PM


Re: Sand In The Machine
Well I disagree with your hypothesis, and... nothing personal... hope you are proven wrong.
Nothing personal taken, H. Frankly I hope I am proven wrong. It would mean this country has progressed a lot further than I assess.
But, I doubt it.
We shall see. On to Denver.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by Silent H, posted 03-13-2008 6:49 PM Silent H has replied

Replies to this message:
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Dr Jack
Member
Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 54 of 67 (460334)
03-14-2008 8:20 AM
Reply to: Message 29 by tesla
03-08-2008 10:01 PM


Re: i predict
Sorry mate, I can play guitar effectively, but every attempt at typing tutors has left me throwing my keyboard across the room in frustration.
I will attempt to get in the habit of using the shift key more often
Might I suggest using 'sticky keys'? I've been stuck typing one handed for the last week and a half due to a broken collarbone and using 'sticky keys' has made it much easier. It means you can tap 'shift' before you hit the key you want in capitals rather than at the same time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by tesla, posted 03-08-2008 10:01 PM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by tesla, posted 03-14-2008 10:20 AM Dr Jack has replied

  
tesla
Member (Idle past 1593 days)
Posts: 1199
Joined: 12-22-2007


Message 55 of 67 (460345)
03-14-2008 10:20 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by Dr Jack
03-14-2008 8:20 AM


Re: i predict
You mean like just hittin caps lock?
I can type pretty fast, but most of my typing experience was in an online game. And capitols were never necessary. Just being able to understand what spouts out lol.
So my shift impairment is mostly habit. I type as the thoughts hit me, and then after review, i go back and have to capitalize all the sentences.
I always did well in reading and writing. But i NEVER did well in grammar. Punctuation and sentence structure i could use great improvement. But i have other things in my life that take precedent. It is very unlikely ill ever be in a position where it will even matter. I am attempting improvement here because it as been asked of me. But ill probably never be "spot on".

keep your mind from this way of enquiry, for never will you show that not-being is
~parmenides

This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by Dr Jack, posted 03-14-2008 8:20 AM Dr Jack has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by Dr Jack, posted 03-14-2008 1:03 PM tesla has replied

  
Dr Jack
Member
Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 56 of 67 (460361)
03-14-2008 1:03 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by tesla
03-14-2008 10:20 AM


Re: i predict
No, it's not like hitting caps lock, 'cos it only does it for the next character. It's also a true 'shift' rather than just caps.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by tesla, posted 03-14-2008 10:20 AM tesla has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by tesla, posted 03-14-2008 6:17 PM Dr Jack has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5819 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 57 of 67 (460376)
03-14-2008 3:09 PM
Reply to: Message 53 by AZPaul3
03-13-2008 8:04 PM


Re: Sand In The Machine
Saw this article today on Obama's issues with Jews and thought you might be interested. From the article...
"Right now, Obama's big problem with the Jewish community is similar to his problem with other communities: He's just not clearly defined among any voter groups," said Kenneth Wald, director of Center for Jewish Studies at the University of Florida-Gainesville. "The fact he has a name that sounds Muslim and has a Muslim father underlines questions about what we do and what we do not know about him."
That supports your claim about the potential issue, yet...
"There has been a concerted effort, largely out of the conservative Web sites and anonymous e-mails," says Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council, which set up a Stop The Smears Web site to correct the rumors.
"I don't think it moves tons and tons of votes, but at the fringes, if left unchecked, it could move a few," he said.
What's interesting is that this article goes on to make Obama's position on Israel more explicit. That is something I've been worried about for some time, and it unfortunately supported those fears for me. He appears to be a Zionist (saying straight out that Israel must remain a Jewish state, which to me is advocacy of racism/religious intolerance). I may end up voting for Nader after all. Maybe.

h
"Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing." - Robert E. Howard

This message is a reply to:
 Message 53 by AZPaul3, posted 03-13-2008 8:04 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
tesla
Member (Idle past 1593 days)
Posts: 1199
Joined: 12-22-2007


Message 58 of 67 (460404)
03-14-2008 6:17 PM
Reply to: Message 56 by Dr Jack
03-14-2008 1:03 PM


Re: i predict
ah i see
If it is a program, I probably wont download it. My computer is fickle. The motherboard is newer than my software and i have glitches on the account of it. I use older software because i need a win proxy full of holes to make an online game work effectively sharing 2 PCs on a dial up 22k down 9k up connection.
But i do appreciate your help and suggestion Thanks again
Edited by tesla, : spelcheck. <~~~erm spellcheck.

keep your mind from this way of enquiry, for never will you show that not-being is
~parmenides

This message is a reply to:
 Message 56 by Dr Jack, posted 03-14-2008 1:03 PM Dr Jack has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 59 by Dr Jack, posted 03-15-2008 7:58 AM tesla has not replied

  
Dr Jack
Member
Posts: 3514
From: Immigrant in the land of Deutsch
Joined: 07-14-2003
Member Rating: 8.7


Message 59 of 67 (460453)
03-15-2008 7:58 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by tesla
03-14-2008 6:17 PM


Sticky keys
It's a standard part of Windows. You'll find it in the Control Panel under 'accessibility options' on XP, and 'ease of access' on Vista. You might also be able to activate by just pressing and hold shift for 10 seconds, depending on how your PC is set up.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by tesla, posted 03-14-2008 6:17 PM tesla has not replied

  
Chiroptera
Inactive Member


Message 60 of 67 (461956)
03-28-2008 8:34 PM


Here is a current piece on the election by Matt Taibbi. I don't know whether it's informative, but it's deliciously cynical.
{The "Printer Friendly" version, which may also be more on-screen reader friendly. Everything's on one page. - Adminnemooseus}
Edited by Adminnemooseus, : See above.

There is a tragic flaw in our precious Constitution, and I don't know what can be done to fix it. This is it: Only nut cases want to be president. -- Kurt Vonnegut

  
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