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Author Topic:   The name for the point where a probability changes
contracycle
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Message 131 of 186 (175464)
01-10-2005 10:44 AM
Reply to: Message 130 by Syamsu
01-10-2005 9:39 AM


probabilities
Syamsu, the problem is this.
Imagine you flipped a coin a thousand times and each time it came up heads. Doesn't this imply that if the next time must be tails bbecuase it is so improbable to flip 1001 heads in a row?
Not when one focusses on the specific incident. The next coin flip has as 50:50 a chance of producing the 1001st head as it does the 1st tail.
The fact that flipping 1000 heads in a row is WEIRD does not imply that some agency of the universe therefore intervenes to ser the probably to the average. NONE of the prior events have any impact on the current event - there is no causal mechanism for this to occur.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 130 by Syamsu, posted 01-10-2005 9:39 AM Syamsu has not replied

  
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