The name for the point where a probability changes

The event where probabilities resolve into actual results (in the case of an election it's the counting of the votes) is often called the 'realization' of the probability.Generally you describe it as the event or process that changes a possibility into an outcome.

I think you misunderstood him. Probabilities are often just generalisations done when you can't model the thing you are examining exactly.Take throwing dice, for example.The path the dice follows when thrown isn't random. It depends on the way the thrower move their hands, the effect of gravity, the surfaces it hits, and so on.However (and this is what chaos theory deals with) it's REALLY REALLY hard to figure out what results you will get, and people generally don't have the skills needed to get specific results when throwing dice, so it seems to us as if it's random.In other situations, such as poker, the idea is that some knowledge is hidden from the players and as such while the cards aren't random they are unknown, and thus act as if they are random.At no point in the throw of the dice does the laws of physics suddenly stop applying. Hence probability math are a generalisation of the real world, but it does NOT always work the other way.

I think this is more of a problem with the way standard computers generate random numbers. That is, they're not really random at all.Maybe if you repeated the tests with a true random number generator you'd get different results.

I guess the problem here is that you can argue what sort of world we live in. We have a few choises:A - A basically deterministic world where at least physical things like gambling are just a chain of causes and effects.In this case, probability is just an useful tool to us, but is just a model with no deeper insight in how things really are.B - A world where events on our scale are completely random and it's impossible to know what will happen until it happens.In this case, probability is still an useful tool to us, and a way to accurately describe the truth of our reality.C - A world where events are deterministic but humans have a non-deterministic mind with at least some random elements.In this case, probability is still an useful tool to us, but it is completely missleading as a way to describe the world around us.