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Proving God Statistically

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Author Topic:   Proving God Statistically
compmage
Member (Idle past 5184 days)
Posts: 601
From: South Africa
Joined: 08-04-2005

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Message 12 of 96 (66438)
11-14-2003 3:04 AM 		Reply to: Message 1 by DavidPryor
11-13-2003 5:05 PM

DavidPryor writes:
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so that the chance of ten following nine, is 1 in 10 000 000 000 or 10 billion
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The chance of getting 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10, in that order, is 1 in 10 billion. However, the chance of getting 2,1,7,5,6,3,9,4,8 and 10 are also 1 in 10 billion, the change of getting ANY predetermined combination in ten draws is 1 in 10 billion.
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Just because the sequence of 1 to 10 has more significance to you makes not difference to its odds. It isn't more special than any other combination.
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He hoped and prayed that there wasn't an afterlife. Then he realized there was a contradiction involved here and merely hoped that there wasn't an afterlife.
- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy
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[This message has been edited by compmage, 11-14-2003]
This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by DavidPryor, posted 11-13-2003 5:05 PM DavidPryor has not replied
Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by DNAunion, posted 11-15-2003 6:28 PM compmage has replied
  
compmage
Member (Idle past 5184 days)
Posts: 601
From: South Africa
Joined: 08-04-2005

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Message 17 of 96 (66810)
11-16-2003 9:53 AM 		Reply to: Message 13 by DNAunion
11-15-2003 6:28 PM

DNAunion writes:
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Therefore, while we should not be surprised to hear that "Frank" hit upon your sequence by chance in a single shot, we should be surprised to hear that "Frank" hit upon the sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 by chance in a single shot (in fact, we should probably reject "Frank"'s claim).
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Why?
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As I said, ANY sequence has EXACTLY the same chance as any other. Just because you find that sequence "special" means nothing. All you have done is argued for the fact that a recognizable sequence is "special". That some people will assign more meaning to certain combinations is not disputed. It does however have no bearing on the likelyhood of getting that combination.
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------------------
He hoped and prayed that there wasn't an afterlife. Then he realized there was a contradiction involved here and merely hoped that there wasn't an afterlife.
- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy
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 Message 13 by DNAunion, posted 11-15-2003 6:28 PM DNAunion has not replied
Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by NosyNed, posted 11-16-2003 11:06 AM compmage has replied
  
compmage
Member (Idle past 5184 days)
Posts: 601
From: South Africa
Joined: 08-04-2005

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Message 31 of 96 (66978)
11-17-2003 12:57 AM 		Reply to: Message 18 by NosyNed
11-16-2003 11:06 AM

NosyNed writes:
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However, calling it in advance and then pulling it is something else altogether.
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Only if you can do this repeatedly. This fits well with the lotto example. When someone gets the winning numbers it is nothing unusual, but if that person had to pick the winning numbers even 1 out of 10 tries, it becomes a completely different kettle of fish.
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------------------
He hoped and prayed that there wasn't an afterlife. Then he realized there was a contradiction involved here and merely hoped that there wasn't an afterlife.
- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy
This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by NosyNed, posted 11-16-2003 11:06 AM NosyNed has replied
Replies to this message:
 Message 34 by NosyNed, posted 11-17-2003 3:43 PM compmage has replied
  
compmage
Member (Idle past 5184 days)
Posts: 601
From: South Africa
Joined: 08-04-2005

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Message 42 of 96 (67279)
11-18-2003 1:09 AM 		Reply to: Message 34 by NosyNed
11-17-2003 3:43 PM

NosyNed writes:
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No, I have to disagree.
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You are free to do that if you want.
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NosyNed writes:
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It is very interesting even if it is done once IF it is statistically unlikely enough.
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Interesting, yes, but for my part, unlikely does not mean impossible and unless the feat can be repeated I have no way of knowing that it wasn't just a lucky guess.
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------------------
He hoped and prayed that there wasn't an afterlife. Then he realized there was a contradiction involved here and merely hoped that there wasn't an afterlife.
- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy
This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by NosyNed, posted 11-17-2003 3:43 PM NosyNed has not replied
  
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