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Author Topic:   Proving God Statistically
Rei
Member (Idle past 7044 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 9 of 96 (66379)
11-13-2003 7:18 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by DavidPryor
11-13-2003 5:05 PM


quote:
The president of the New York Scientific Society once gave eight reasons why he believed there was a God. The first was this: Take 10 identical coins and mark them 1 to 10. Place them in your pocket. Now take one out. There is 1 chance in 10 that you will get number one. Now replace it, and the overall chance that number two follows number one is not 1 in 10, but 1 in 100. With each new coin taken out, the risk will be multiplied by 10, so that the chance of ten following nine, is 1 in 10 000 000 000 or 10 billion. It seemed so unbelievable to me that I immediately took pencil and paper and very quickly discovered he was right. Try it yourself.
Tornado In A Junkyard, Strawman
quote:
Surely no thoughtful person would wish to base their eternal future on a "statistical monstrosity"? Perhaps that is why the Bible says in Psalm 14:1 "The fool hath said in his heart, 'There is no God.'"
Pascal's Wager, Game Over.
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."
[This message has been edited by Rei, 11-13-2003]

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by DavidPryor, posted 11-13-2003 5:05 PM DavidPryor has not replied

  
Rei
Member (Idle past 7044 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 14 of 96 (66736)
11-15-2003 8:11 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by DNAunion
11-15-2003 6:28 PM


If 1 increased the odds of 2, which in turn increased the odds of 3, which in turn increased the odds of 4... etc, up to 10, then it's not that remarkable. The closer you get to a self-replicator, the better the odds of getting a self-replicator, because even something that helps catalyze broken, non-replica molecules that are just "similar" to it, the closer it is getting to a form in which a random modification can make a proper form.
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by DNAunion, posted 11-15-2003 6:28 PM DNAunion has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 15 by DNAunion, posted 11-15-2003 9:00 PM Rei has replied

  
Rei
Member (Idle past 7044 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 16 of 96 (66770)
11-16-2003 12:06 AM
Reply to: Message 15 by DNAunion
11-15-2003 9:00 PM


In a system where we are talking about something that is truly random, you are correct. In a system such as the creation of life on earth, that is not an apt description, because we are not looking at a completely random system.
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by DNAunion, posted 11-15-2003 9:00 PM DNAunion has not replied

  
Rei
Member (Idle past 7044 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 32 of 96 (67088)
11-17-2003 2:19 PM
Reply to: Message 25 by DNAunion
11-16-2003 11:29 PM


How did Dembsky get the 1e80 number, out of curiousity?
Visible matter in the universe: 1e53g
Assuming it's all hadrons, we multiply by avagadro's number, and get: ~6e76
Of course, even ignoring the quark issue, it's not all hadrons. The best upper limit for the mass of a photon, for example, is 4e-48 grams, while the upper limit of a gravitron is 2e-62 grams, and neutrinoes are no more than 2e-31 grams. All of these particles should utterly dwarf normal matter in terms of quantity of particles. If you count vaccuum fluctuations (which will need to be counted), the number of particles you're going to have is truly staggering. The universe that is expanding is, if I recall correctly, a sphere with a radius of about 14 billion light years. 1.4e10ly = 1.33e23km = 1.33e26m. Volume = 9.85e69 m^3. I've seen virtual particle pair estimates for vacuum fluctuations as high as 1e90 for any given point in time, which would put the total number of particles in the universe from vacuum fluctuation alone, in the current date (less in the past) at 9.85e159.
Leaving only a 1e4 margin of error for "everything else" compared to everything being hadrons seems a bit weak, to say the least.
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 25 by DNAunion, posted 11-16-2003 11:29 PM DNAunion has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by PaulK, posted 11-17-2003 3:10 PM Rei has not replied

  
Rei
Member (Idle past 7044 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 43 of 96 (67370)
11-18-2003 1:04 PM
Reply to: Message 41 by DNAunion
11-17-2003 10:21 PM


In reference to your astronomy/philosophy class notes (the best that I can come up with as to what that course is about - look at its introduction page), they state what they're counting: hadrons (actually, just baryons), photons, and neutrinos. At the very least, you have to extend this to quarks if you want to talk about "fundamental particles". To generalize, you need to include all quarks and leptons (which encompasses a wide range of different particle types). This ignores counting things such as gravitrons, and all of the vacuum fluctuation virtual pairs, which are an incredibly huge number (they exist; they're what leads to Hawking Radiation; the only question is just how common they are). As referenced in this page (postulating a theory as to why vacuum fluctuations occur, based on the reduction of a higher order spacetime), they reference the energy calculation's for Casimir's experiment, which indicates 4.635e110 ergs in a volume of 10^-4 cm^3, indicating 4.635e114ergs/cm^3 = 4.635e120 ergs/m^3. E=mc^2, E is in ergs, m is in kg, and c is in m/s (299,792,458), so the equivalent mass of this much energy per cubic meter is 5.157e103 kg = 5.157e106g. Just to put this into large particles, lets say, neutrons, you've got about 3.106e127 virtual particles per cubic meter (notably more than the rough estimate I had tracked down on the net before... I should check into where they got their source). Given a volume of the present universe at about 1e79 m^3, we're looking at about 3e206 virtual particles in the universe.
Any commentary on these calculations? Regardless of whether we're looking at 1e90 or 3e127 virtual particles per cubic meter currently in the universe, we're looking at a simply mind bogglingly huge number. And they do interact with reality (Casimir effect, Hawking radiation, etc).
If you count virtual particles (which I would think you would have to do), the number you get is staggeringly higher than 1e80 in the universe. Vacuum fluctuations (as with all reality) may just be a manifestation of interactions in some higher order space, but regardless, they are part of reality, and interact with it.
Also, what use in his his calculation is just multiplying by Planck time? All particles interact at once, not one at a time. One would think that, to be fair, he should square the number of particles in the universe before multiplying by Planck time. All in all, the end number of particles (ignoring gravitrons, but incorporating virtual particles), you get about 3e387 "calculations" in the universe. Even if you use his 1e80 number but factor in that every particle in the universe interacts with every other one, that's 4.3e220.
Regardless of all of this, most of my disagreements lie in the use of his number, not his calculation of it.
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."
[This message has been edited by Rei, 11-18-2003]

This message is a reply to:
 Message 41 by DNAunion, posted 11-17-2003 10:21 PM DNAunion has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 44 by DNAunion, posted 11-18-2003 1:39 PM Rei has not replied
 Message 47 by NosyNed, posted 11-18-2003 2:33 PM Rei has not replied

  
Rei
Member (Idle past 7044 days)
Posts: 1546
From: Iowa City, IA
Joined: 09-03-2003


Message 46 of 96 (67411)
11-18-2003 2:08 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by crashfrog
11-18-2003 2:04 PM


*grin*
Seing as DNAunion is now spending his time in other threads trying to pick a fight with me (such as taking as many out of context quotes as he can find and sticking them in one post), I've decided on an official policy of just ignoring him from now on.
------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by crashfrog, posted 11-18-2003 2:04 PM crashfrog has not replied

  
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