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Author Topic:   Statistics 101
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 42 of 199 (386631)
02-22-2007 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by nator
02-21-2007 10:31 PM


Cerebral
In another thread, someone posted this, which is in error:
quote:
The odds of winning the lotto can be a million to one, but if I win it on my first try, then those weren't my odds were they?
....... Wow.... just..... wow.............................

"A man can no more diminish God's glory by refusing to worship Him than a lunatic can put out the sun by scribbling the word, 'darkness' on the walls of his cell." -C.S. Lewis

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by nator, posted 02-21-2007 10:31 PM nator has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 47 of 199 (386641)
02-22-2007 6:20 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Phat
02-22-2007 2:54 AM


Re: statistics will not cure a gambler
As a compulsive gambler, you would think that I was clueless about statistics. I was, but only because I believed in divine intervention on behalf of my statistics. I figured that even if the odds were a million to one, I would be favored somehow and some way.
Yeah, that's kind of strange. I seriously doubt God would hook you up in that way.
Pathological gambling is a brain disease that seems to be similar to disorders such as alcoholism and drug addiction. These disorders likely involve problems with the part of the brain associated with behaviors such as eating and sex. This part of the brain is sometimes called the "pleasure center" or dopamine reward pathway.
I've wondered why some people seem predisposed towards some things and not others. I'm sure, as with most things, there are no black and white answers. In lieu of that I would offer this caveat about disease and sin. Its a convenient scapegoat to say that our sin is really because we are diseased. That way we aren't culpable for our bad choices. However, diseases and disorders actually do exist. I only question how much we should rely on them to explain our behaviors. At the same time, we have a group who says that everything bad that happens is because we're just a bunch of sinners. What ends up happening is they beat themselves up over things that are legitimately difficult for them to overcome.
Maybe the best way to deal with it is somewhere in the middle.
What are your personal thoughts about gambling addictions, or addictions in general?
I have an addiction to nicotene. Always have. Its still hard for me to stay away, especially in social settings where its prevalent. Some people don't like it and have no problem with it. At the same time, I can count on my hand how many times I've gambled. Its not a driving force in my life by any stretch of the imagination. But for you, obviously that isn't the case.

"A man can no more diminish God's glory by refusing to worship Him than a lunatic can put out the sun by scribbling the word, 'darkness' on the walls of his cell." -C.S. Lewis

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Phat, posted 02-22-2007 2:54 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 79 by Phat, posted 02-23-2007 10:15 AM Hyroglyphx has not replied

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 52 of 199 (386652)
02-22-2007 7:40 PM


Probability
I have to agree with Jaderis and Nator that Modulous critique, though I would agree, is adding a superfluous element. Obviously Nator is referring to the odds before winning.
That said, its unquestionable that the House almost always win. In Vegas an individual may get lucky at blackjack or at slots, but when compared to how many people in the whole population of the casino is losing, its unquestionable that the House always wins. I mean, they'd go out of business if it were any other way. This is so obvious that my mentioning of it practically a redundancy.
Bars have gotten in to the game too with video poker. Its big business because even though one or two people get a decent payout, the overall trend is that you lose far more than you win. When you compound that statistical fact with every one that plays, it makes the gambling industry quite lucrative.

"A man can no more diminish God's glory by refusing to worship Him than a lunatic can put out the sun by scribbling the word, 'darkness' on the walls of his cell." -C.S. Lewis

  
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