Statistics 101

Maybe now nator will understand it.Let me add that the odds of a particular number coming up is just a representation of the number of possibilities.The odds of getting the number for a particular person cannot be figured, because we don't know what number they will pick, and what number will actually come out.How can you explain the course of events that led that person to pick that number on the same day that the winning number came out?There is your objective result, or you data, so now tell us nator, how did that person win? Keep in mind, that luck is not a scientific term.

Luck exists?Thatys breaking news, really, thats got to be sillier than both mine and nators positions.BTW, siding with her, won't win her to God.

Your problem, and everyone else in this thread (maybe) is that your confusing the odds of winning the lotto, with the possibilities, or combinations.When they give odds for winning, it is really nothing more than the possible combinations, thats it. They aren't, IMO odds for you personally.To discount the math involved in figuring out what numbers a person would pick, verses numbers drawn, is a discredit, to the term odds, in a lotto.i.e. some people have no chance at all of winning the lotto, and they never will.That is why I say the person who wins on the first try, has an odd of 1-1. How to figure that out, is beyond me. [qs]vwe can tell you, on average, how long it will be before somebody wins./qsNo you can't. Not accurately. Well thats part of my point, you would then not only factor in the chances of a number coming out, you would then have to factor in the possibility of the number picked by the machine, combined, with the chance of a particular number coming out. IMO there is no way to accurately do that.But if someone wins on the first try, then it was obvious, that their chance were 1-1. because they won. To deny that, is to deny raw data.

Flood< explained.....

So then explain how the lotto ticket knows what number you are going to pick? Wrong. You do not have a 1 in 146 million chances of winning. There are only 146 million combinations, thats it.If you are to accurately figure the odds, then you must do controlled experiments, and factor in every part of the equation.Your leaving out the choices made by the purchaser. And still people win on their first try, amazing. Yea, nator brought up the coin toss thing, and to tell you the truth, I am disappointed at the ability of people like you and nator to figure out the odds, of winning a coin toss.There are two sides to a coin, that gives you two chances, thats it. That doesn't mean it's your odds.Is the coin perfectly balanced?
Have you calculated every coin tood since the creation of coins?
Wind?
The strength of the flip.
The ability of the flipper.
on and on...I work with hammers, and one of the things I can do is toss a hammer up in the air, flipping it 7 or more times, and manage to catch it on the handle. It's just a feeling I have from doing it so long. I am sure if I praticed with a coin long enough, I could increase my odds of having the coin toss ending up in my favor. Factor that in, would ya.Some people play the lotto on a whim, and some people even have dreams about numbers, and then they come out. Factor that in would ya. I never said it was the combinations available, I was talking about personal odds. If you think I don't understand combinations, then stop talking to me. There are people who have won the lotto twice, holy crap, they beat the odds, they would say. How can they do that? Not for the guy who won.

Really, the lotto tickets knows the exact number I am going to pick? This is my point, a number chosen by an individual is not random.
Unless your playing quick pick. Even with the quick pick, that person has to walk in the store at the correct time, and choose a quick pick. To me, that is part of the odds. (not combinations) Yea, but if we did calculate it, and we found out the 75% of the time, it comes out heads, wouldn't that make you wonder why? Of course it matters how I pick the number on that particular drawing.
If I pick the wrong number, I don't win.Let's say I pick a different number every time, wouldn't increase the odds, or decrease them? (again, not combinations of numbers we are talking odds). Think of it as two random lines going through space, that hope to someday meet. Thanks for caring
I am not ignorant, understanding the conbinations of numbers, is childs play. I just disagree that the possible combinations of numbers, is the final word on your own personal odds, and the data shows us that people can beat the odds.
Not only that, ever see the machine that picks the numbers? Tell me that is completely 100% random. I know it is designed to be as random as possible, but is it really? I don't know who Michael Behe is.

I think your wasting too much time on trying to explain this to me. I get how odds are figured out.What your not taking into account is time. I agree with what Ned is saying, and I stick by my original statement.The chance of a particular number coming up in the lotto, may be 146 million to 1, but if I win on the first try, then my odds for that try were 1-1, it's a proven fact, because I won.

Since your question has to deal with guessing, that involves more than just a coin flipping.
There is two possible coin tosses, and two possible guesses.
4-1, or .25Think of it as a coin toss deciding a coin toss

When the ball doesn't go where you wanted it to go.

I admit it, I was a little unsure of myself posting that, I really didn't think it through. It was more of a joke.I wish I could remember how to program, I would like to generate a program that flips the coins, and see what result we get.

I ain't confused, I was the one who wrote that original quote. I am glad you proved it for me. It was nator who got all upset whenever I said that.Let me ask you a question.
If the chances of winning the lotto are 146 million to 1, and you play the lottos 146 million times, playing each combination, what are the odds of winning? What about if you play the same number for 146 million times, what are your odds of winning?
This is for the given amount of tries, not infinity.

Your still stuck in past tense, I have never denied the possible combinations in the lotto.I don't see how anyone could figure out the odds for the question you quoted.You could play the same number in the lotto for 146million times, and never win.

No I get it, really I do. I just feel there is more to it.Expertise is relavant.

Yea, it did freak me out, I admit, I cheated, I looked it up in wikipedia, and I would have answered that it was a 50/50 chance.But this sort of explains how time is a factor in determining odds.

was that called for?
really....