Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 65 (9164 total)
1 online now:
Newest Member: ChatGPT
Post Volume: Total: 916,913 Year: 4,170/9,624 Month: 1,041/974 Week: 368/286 Day: 11/13 Hour: 0/1


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Eco-Guilt
Michamus
Member (Idle past 5187 days)
Posts: 230
From: Ft Hood, TX
Joined: 03-16-2009


Message 14 of 67 (512743)
06-20-2009 11:51 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by fgarb
06-20-2009 9:53 AM


Re: All hail the prophet!
RAWR!
Thought I would use plead to emotion in my argument too.
On a serious note. One of the main reasons so many scientists are skeptical of human cause to Global Warming as well is the very fact that we are still emerging from a very recent Ice Age. After all, rising ocean levels from this post-ice age Global Warming is what created the Black Sea. In fact, data shows that the vast majority of sea rise occurred in the ost-Glacial_Sea_Level.png]-->distant past.
The data I have found thus far on increase in CO2 concentration causing temperature increase is not too compelling. My main hang up is the CO2 dips that directly preced the temperature increase spikes, which are then followed by CO2 spikes. Also, the fairly recent data time line provides insufficient trending to determine whether CO2 causes increase temp. or if the opposite is true.
I will have to do further research on this issue which will need to include:
  • A greater time line so as to provide a greater comprehension on trending (more than likely from ice core samples).
  • More data on CO2 and it's interaction with temperature change (as opposed to water vapor which has a greater capacity for heat enclosure)
TTFN

How hard they must find it, those who take authority as truth, rather than truth as the authority.
-unknown

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by fgarb, posted 06-20-2009 9:53 AM fgarb has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by fgarb, posted 06-21-2009 5:57 AM Michamus has replied

  
Michamus
Member (Idle past 5187 days)
Posts: 230
From: Ft Hood, TX
Joined: 03-16-2009


Message 56 of 67 (512923)
06-22-2009 11:15 AM
Reply to: Message 24 by fgarb
06-21-2009 5:57 AM


Interesting
fgarb writes:
Perhaps you are right that the same process that is bringing us out of an ice age is also somehow causing a sudden temperature fluctuation upwards in the last century (since our oceans have not boiled off I can't believe that our current rate of warming has been sustained since the previous ice age).
You are quite correct. This is why I emphasized the necessity of more data so as to establish a trend. To simply have a snapshot of the last 200 years and conclude the same has been happening is silly. It is akin to a medical professional seeing a patient's heart rate jump from 60bpm to 80bpm in 2 seconds, and using that data alone in considering that the patient's heart rate will be 680bpm in 30 more seconds.
fgarb writes:
That would be quite coincidental for it to just happen to coincide with the time when we are producing enormous quantities of heat trapping gases.
Indeed. It could be a coincidence. (Though unlikely) How do we know it isn't? What data are you using to determine that this same domino effect hasn't occurred in the past, only to revert to cooling once more?
fgarb writes:
Clearly both are true. CO2 reflects infrared radiation back to the earth's surface and produces a warming effect. Simple physics.
Which I don't think anyone has disputed here.
fgarb writes:
Similarly, warming the earth causes CO2 to be released from the oceans.
Indeed. The next question would be: "What is the quantity of CO2 and Methane that is released upon x temperature increase?"
I once had a creationist try to tell me the Sun is burning 500,000 tons of hydrogen a second, so clearly it would have burned out by now. Sadly his conclusion failed in that it had insufficient data in it's formula. He had forgotten to insert what the Sun's mass is. Once that was inserted, it became quite clear that the Sun can have been converting Hydrogen through fusion for several billion years, and still have several billion more years to go.
This is the same thing that I feel is occurring in the "Human caused Global Warming" camp.
fgarb writes:
The difference is that this time around we are pumping far more CO2 into the atmosphere than the ocean has released in any of the recent warming spells.
I have tried to find hard (numerical/graph) data on this very thing, and have yet to do so.
Where are you acquiring your data from to make this statement, and why are you not providing it to me/us? (See above statement)
Edited by Michamus, : clarity/typos

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by fgarb, posted 06-21-2009 5:57 AM fgarb has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by Nuggin, posted 06-22-2009 11:41 AM Michamus has replied
 Message 64 by fgarb, posted 06-23-2009 1:23 AM Michamus has replied

  
Michamus
Member (Idle past 5187 days)
Posts: 230
From: Ft Hood, TX
Joined: 03-16-2009


Message 65 of 67 (513022)
06-24-2009 5:23 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by Nuggin
06-22-2009 11:41 AM


Re: Interesting
Nuggin writes:
So, what you have left is this: "We don't know if humans cause 1% of the CO2 or 99% of the CO2, therefore we should do nothing"
In your haste to make an enemy, you have failed to discern the true fact of the matter. Last time I checked, THAT is:
Nuggin writes:
RETARDED.
Perhaps you could have made an assessment on my stance on immediate action, if you had enough data to do so. Sadly you didn't, and this has led you to a FALSE CONCLUSION. This is an excellent example of what I was really talking about.
If we hastily make important decisions (and luckily, yours wasn't), we will suffer long term effects.
Nuggin writes:
If humans were responsible for .000000000000001% of the CO2 we should STILL stop releasing mercury vapors into the air. We should STILL stop stripmining the entire state of WV. We should STILL stop handing hundreds of billions of dollars over to terrorist nations. We should STILL strive to have cars that get more mpg. We should STILL find ways to make jet more effecient.
I don't think there is anyone on this planet that isn't interested in creating a cleaner, safer, and more efficient form of energy. We HAVE been making endeavors in Fusion, Solar, Wind, Hydro, and Geothermal, technology. For now the only alternative until these technologies become TRULY more cost effective (rather than subsidy dependent) is decreased energy usage. In developing countries, and the United States, this is easier said, than done. It is possible though.
Nuggin writes:
If humans are adding ANY CO2, and you KNOW that they are, to the system - then we should strive to reduce our input.
Perhaps we should. Obviously complete CO2 output removal would be impossible though, as I am sure you know.
Nuggin writes:
If humans are removing CO2 sinks FROM the system, and you KNOW that they are - then we should strive to replace them.
Again, perhaps we should.
Nuggin writes:
It's THAT simple. It doesn't matter if we're solely responsible or partially responsible, or simply exasperating the situation.
Is it really THAT simple? Your usage of 'thought ending statements' belies a lack of hard evidence in your court.
I would hardly consider a micro-climate, let alone the GLOBAL climate 'Simple'. My suggestion would be that we learn how negative, or even beneficial our actions may be for the impacted climate. I would say that to oversimplify the situation could very well create an even greater problem.
An excellent example would be using a "the sky is falling" technique, as some environmentalists do. What do you think will happen in 10 years if everyone looks around and sees very little different that day, than it was yesterday?
This event will obviously discredit the ENTIRE movement altogether within the general populace, who last I checked are running this country.
We should be more concerned about hard, compelling facts, than sensationalist efforts to cow the majority into bending to our whim. We should be more concerned with taking PERSONAL action in minimizing energy usage that relies on high pollutant fuels, such as oil, or coal. We should be more concerned about teaching our children how to think with their minds using deductive reasoning, instead of heading the fear in their hearts.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 58 by Nuggin, posted 06-22-2009 11:41 AM Nuggin has not replied

  
Michamus
Member (Idle past 5187 days)
Posts: 230
From: Ft Hood, TX
Joined: 03-16-2009


Message 66 of 67 (513040)
06-24-2009 11:28 AM
Reply to: Message 64 by fgarb
06-23-2009 1:23 AM


Which came first?
Sorry for the late reply. I have an allotted time to utilize public computers still, as I am still en route home.
fgarb writes:
The scientific consensus is that it is just unlikely (also motivated by detailed scientific studies suggesting that this would not have happened), which is what I am arguing.
Glad we are agreed. I would also find it unlikely to be a coincidence when the available data appears to refute such a thing.
fgarb writes:
The CO2 rises/falls in the past were clearly natural and were probably caused by the temperature increase releasing them from the oceans/reabsorbtion when the temp falls again.
As would be expected.
fgarb writes:
The far right of the plot is, of course, caused by humans, and is clearly only the beginning of the CO2 the humans are pumping into the atmosphere.
The "catch" here is that the graph is relying on "Multiple proxy reconstructions" which is quite obviously unreliable once we reach the capability of precisely measuring and compiling data on global temperatures. The graph itself even shows dramatic temperature increases prior to the dramatic spike in CO2 being released into the atmosphere.
I also see that we haven't even approached the apex of prior global "high temperatures" recently. It would appear that we have about 3 degrees C before we reach the same apex as prior "Heat ages" (I don't know if this name is used by anyone else...)
fgarb writes:
But I see no reason to doubt the CO2 plot above - that's much harder to fudge.
You may be correct that some fudging has occurred. I don't know if I would go so far. If there is indeed cherry picked data here, I would imagine it would be a flaw in the process that was utilized to screen the relevant data.
I personally prefer to look at data in it's raw, uninterpreted form, so as to draw my own conclusions.
_____________________________
I wouldn't argue at all though that humans do not produce green house gases. Nor would I argue that no change in our environmental habits need occur.
I am just interested in whether humans really have the power to produce green house gases in enough abundance to actually dent the natural process we are surrounded by. I am interested in projections on HOW MUCH CO2 a 1 degree C change on a global scale transfers into the atmosphere. I am also interested in comparing that to how much CO2 humanity produces as a whole, and create a comparison.
To dismiss such a charge for data would be akin to saying: "whether a fly (or plane if we REALLY do produce that much)hitting a Boeing 777 in flight is capable of destroying the jet is not important."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 64 by fgarb, posted 06-23-2009 1:23 AM fgarb has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 67 by fgarb, posted 06-24-2009 5:47 PM Michamus has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024