Percy writes:
That's not even remotely similar to "suicide for Russia" because it means dire consequences for all concerned.
Dire consequences for all does not mean it wouldn't be suicidal does it?
And while WWIII must be one of the scenarios considered, it doesn't seem one of the more likely given Putin's "one country at a time" approach. Consider a hypothetical. Say Russia had invaded Estonia instead of Ukraine. Estonia is less than one tenth the size of Ukraine. It would fall in days. What are you imagining about NATO's response that would lead to a world war or some kind of armageddon?
If Russia invaded Estonia NATO would be forced to attack Russia. That becomes WW111. Just as has been said several times that if NATO attacked Russians in Ukraine it would be WW111
Or consider another hypothetical. Russia undermines Estonian politics and causes a change in leadership that is friendly to Russia (a la Belarus) and Estonia withdraws from NATO and becomes a Russian puppet state.
I have no idea but you're still assuming that Russia has won and his economy is healthy and NATO is still fast asleep. The least likely of all scenarios
I don't understand your recent predilection for exaggeration and expressing things in absolute terms. Are you using it as a form of emphasis? Are you just trying to indicate how strongly you believe something?
It's an conclusion based on what membership of NATO promises to its members.
But wouldn't it likely be a measured and proportionate response? Sure, if Putin sends bombers, tanks, missiles and troops into and over Warsaw and Berlin and Prague and so forth, we've got WWIII. But what if he just takes Estonia in order to rescue Estonia's endangered 25% Russian minority that is being subjected to Nazi tortures - far more than 0% of the world buys such propaganda.
You're not getting this at all are you? ANY invading boots on NATO territory triggers an all in response. It will start proportionally and escalate if the boots don't leave.
It's similar to MAD. NATO must make Russia believe that NATO will respond hard to any territorial incursion.
Maybe we have different views of what we're doing in this thread. Maybe you think this is a "state your opinion, tell the other guy he's wrong, and we're done here" kind of thread. I was thinking of it as a discussion thread where the stating of opinions is the starting point, followed by discussion, critique, bolstering, rebutting, etc.
That's what we're doing here. I'm disagreeing with your analysis and telling you mine.
But Putin *can* win this war. I'm not saying he *will* win this war, just that he can. If we don't take that possibility seriously then we might fail to provide Ukraine sufficient aid and assistance.
Well of course anything could happen, but few military advisors think that Putin can hold Ukraine even if he takes the country. He thought he would walk into Kiev untouched, welcomed by women throwing flowers at the tanks. He believed his own rhetoric and his entourage where too scared to tell him the truth, that Ukrainians do not want to be part of Russia and will fight to the death to defend it.
Most reports now now have Ukraine on the ascendant. Will Putin give up and admit defeat, or will he keep plugging along? Consider the political ramifications for Putin at home if he loses. Can Putin lose and remain in power? To remain in power doesn't he have to maintain the invasion, even escalating, for example carpet bombing Ukrainian cities into oblivion (or whatever the modern equivalent is)?
There are a few outcomes for Putin, none of them involve taking Ukraine long term and moving on to nibble at more bits of Europe. Whatever he does now - even shelling Ukraine to total destruction - doesn't get him to your scenario of Putin on the march again. Short or long term that era is over.
I believe that Putin surviving is a possibility that must be given serious consideration, else we'll be unprepared if that eventuates.
Rather we need to make sure he doesn't survive this.
Maybe you're right, but aren't the consequences too dire if we don't prepare for the possibility that you're wrong.
ditto above. But of course there'll be a plan b.
This analogy might not work for you, but anyway, a number of years ago Chris Evert walked off the court after winning 6-0, 6-0, and an interviewer asked if she ever felt sorry for her opponent and thought she should give her a mercy game. Evert's response was instant and categorical. No, of course not. Even when the score was 6-0, 5-0, she took very seriously the possibility that her opponent might stage a comeback, and she worked hard to close out that match just as quickly and expeditiously as possible while showing no mercy.
Ditto above.
I'm arguing that Russia is a much more tangible threat to the remaining independent European countries on and near its borders, including those in NATO. My position isn't that these threats *are* what's going to happen. My argument is that they are threats to be taken seriously. Naturally I also believe that if these threats aren't taken seriously then they become more likely to happen.
I know what you're arguing, but it's based on an assumption that Putin will survive and win in Ukraine.
Again, we had better take the possibility that "Putin will survive and win in Ukraine" very seriously, else we make that outcome more likely, and we'll be unprepared if it eventuates.
I heard you the first time.
What is actually true is that the 140,000 troops already present in NATO's eastern flanks have been mobilized, and plans are being put in place to bolster those regions but numbers are still being discussed and no additional troops have actually been sent at this time. Permanent stationing of the additional troops is a possibility being considered. See NATO leaders set to OK 'major increases' of troops in response to Putin's war on Ukraine.
You seem to doubt that this is being taken seriously by NATO. I really don't see it that way.
"Nato is set to approve big increases in the forces deployed on its eastern flank, its secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has said.
Mr Stoltenberg was speaking at a news conference on the eve of an emergency summit on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
He pledged more troops for Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania.
Nato will also agree more support for Ukraine, including greater protection against the use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons."
Ukraine war: Nato to send more troops to eastern Europe - BBC News
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