The War in Europe

Yep, you're right, Macgregor is just another conservative scaremonger. Could you please stop rummaging around in your echo chamber?Anyone claiming to have even just a fair idea of how the Ukraine war will end is wrong. No one knows how this will end or what will happen before it ends. I hope most people are hoping for a free and independent Ukraine rather than for outcomes, no matter what they are, that will give them a political advantage.--Percy

From his Wikipedia page:

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He regularly contributes to Fox News and Russian state media. His opinions on Russia and Ukraine have caused controversy among other conservatives, including being called a member of the "Putin wing of the GOP" and a fellow traveller.
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Macgregor has appeared as a regular guest on Fox News, with at least 60 Fox weekday appearances from August 2017 to early 2022, including 48 on Tucker Carlson’s show.
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He had asserted that Muslim immigrants (referred to as "Muslim invaders") come to Europe "with the goal of eventually turning Europe into an Islamic state".[26] Macgregor had argued that the German concept of Vergangenheitsbewältigung, used to cope with Germany's Nazi past and its atrocities during World War II, is a "sick mentality".[26] Macgregor had stated that martial law should be instituted on the U.S.-Mexico border and argued for the extrajudicial execution of those who cross the border at unofficial ports of entry.
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In 2020, CNN reviewed his public commentary and

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found he often demonized immigrants and refugees. He warned Mexican cartels were "driving millions of Mexicans with no education, no skills and the wrong culture into the United States, placing them essentially as wards of the American people". He repeatedly advocated instituting martial law at the US-Mexico border and to "shoot people" if necessary.

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After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Macgregor appeared on three Fox News programs in February and early March to speak in support of Russia's actions...Macgregor said he believed Russia should be allowed to seize whatever parts of Ukraine it wanted.

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There's plenty more. He sounds like a guy who has extreme and baseless ideas, who is wrong a lot, and who likes to make attention-getting claims and statements.Phat, congratulations on finding another racist, xenophobic, warmongering nut. Would it be too much trouble for you to at least take a glance at someone's Wikipedia page before you start promoting their extreme and/or cockamamie ideas here? That is, unless those are the ideas you yourself want to promote.--Percy

You're right, let me try replying to Phat again.--Percy

I should have addressed this part of your post more directly: "What if he is right?" can be used about anyone saying anything. Please stop using the weakest of reasons for introducing garbage into threads. In fact, stop introducing garbage into threads altogether. Yeah, that's kind of a major issue in this thread. Any thoughts of your own?--Percy

Your whole approach to finding out what is true is horribly flawed because instead of seeking facts, information and analysis you're looking for someone who has the answers. But that's a huge fallacy. No one has the answers.What the guys you're listening do have is YouTube channels where they're competing for attention with many other voices, so they're highly motivated to make the most provocative statements and claims. And you fall for it time after time, get all stirred up, then post here. You don't mean it's the news you don't trust. The news we get is pretty good. From a high level view nobody doubts the news that Russia invaded Ukraine. At a more detailed level, nobody doubts the news that Russia staged more drone attacks on Kyiv last night. By and large we're getting a fairly accurate picture of events.What you mean is that it's opinion you don't trust, and you're right, you shouldn't. Given your gravitation toward the least reliable sources you definitely should not trust the opinions you hear. Macgregor is not "an echo chamber for the far right agenda." He's just one of the many conservative voices contributing to the echo chamber that you inhabit. Gather your facts and information and assess what you're hearing against them. Until you have actual reliable information you are helpless. Stop looking for stories and start seeking reliable information. What does the evidence tell you? Questions like this reek of conspiratorial nonsense. Do you have something meaningful to add to the discussion?The next time you watch a YouTube video that just feels oh so important and are moved to post here, stop yourself.Concerning your question about what if Ukraine doesn't win, there are many possible outcomes ranging from Ukraine is defeated and becomes a Russian client state like Belarus to Ukraine decisively expelling the invader and taking back the Donbas and the Crimea.The threat to the west of a defeated Ukraine is a more aggressive and powerful Russia on Europe's eastern doorstep. No one knows what's going to happen yet, including the guys you're listening to. Why do you think someone has the answers?The important point is that they no one has a crystal ball. No one does. Gather your facts and information. Think for yourself and stop trying to choose who should be telling you what to think--Percy

This thread, The War in Europe, is about the Ukraine war. A discussion about civil riots in France should take place in a different thread.--Percy

An opinion piece in today's Post (NATO’s most vulnerable front-line states face a rising Russian threat) has a lot to say about the Russian threat to the Baltic states. It says NATO is ill prepared to defend them:

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On paper, that commitment has been ironclad since the U.S.-led alliance extended its collective security umbrella guarantee to Latvia and its sister Baltic states, Lithuania and Estonia, almost 20 years ago. In practice, fulfilling that promise would be a nightmare, given the current lack of resources and the rising threat of Russian aggression, which has mounted exponentially. Neither Washington nor its European allies are ready.

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The Baltic states understand how fragile their independence is:

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The Baltic states — colonized by imperial Russia, then subjugated by the Soviet Union for much of the 20th century — have been warning for years that Putin would not be content to live within Russia’s existing borders. They were ignored in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin.

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For those who believe that Russian encroachments onto NATO territory would be met with overwhelming force there is this example:

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The outlook was no more heartening when I visited Lielvarde Air Base in Latvia, where a small fleet of U.S. Blackhawk helicopters trains to ferry combat troops to the front to repel invaders. It depends on a supply line so flimsy that spare rotor blades take up to three weeks to arrive from U.S. factories. “In a crisis we’d be grounded in a week or two,” Lt. Col. Lukas B. Berg of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division, the helicopter task force commander, told me.

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Despite the strength of NATO, it's strength is in the core, not the outer regions, as emphasized in the column's closing paragraph:

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Nonetheless, Cavoli and his successors have their work cut out, and the urgency is clear. Without renewed resolve from Washington and major European capitals, the Kremlin is likely to regard NATO’s front-line states as tempting targets, and soft ones.

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Experts don't believe Russia fears NATO and think it is looking to pluck the low hanging fruit when opportunities present themselves. If Russia defeats and either absorbs Ukraine or turns it into a puppet state it only makes things worse for NATO, much worse, especially for those NATO countries bordering Russia. A Ukrainian defeat would put Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova on the NATO front lines facing Russia. That's why Ukraine victory is vital at all costs, something a sizable segment of the Republican party doesn't seem to understand, which is hard to fathom given that for well over a century the Republicans were the party with the most foreign policy savvy.--Percy

If you put this about how ruthless Putin is: Together with this about fighting other people's wars: Then the response is that the magnitude of the threat means that these aren't other people's wars. They might not be taking place on our own territory, but they are our wars, too. Concerning countries like Ukraine, like the Philippines, like Israel, and like many more, the forces of authoritarianism take one step closer to our own shores each time one of these countries falls. The cost is not the important consideration. Where are very survival as a nation is at stake we must be prepared to pay any price.--Percy

As reported by many news outlets yesterday, With Russian economy far from collapse, U.S. opts for tougher punishment. In other words, more sanctions.As pointed out several times in this thread, sanctions don't work. That we still have a range of sanction options available to us is one of the reasons. All the many sanctions we've added since the initial round means that we are always leaving many sanction options on the table.One other reason sanctions don't work is that the target always finds other trading partners or relies more on domestic sources. Another reason, at least when dictators are involved, is that there are paltry political costs from a suffering citizenry. And executing political opponents works marvelously for squashing opposition.We weren't serious enough in providing military aid at the outset of the war to give Ukraine sufficient advantage within its own borders. Military aid was far too slow in ramping up (and still is), in the early stages usually because of unsubstantiated fears that arming Ukraine too strongly would incite Russia to go nuclear. All we accomplished was guaranteeing a longterm stalemate resulting in greater suffering.Fun fact that many might already know: Ukraine was prepared to take out Russia's Black Sea fleet using StarLink communications provided by Elon Musk, but Musk, citing a fear that Russia would go nuclear, blocked StarLink from working anywhere near Russian ports or fleets.--Percy

Aljazeera today reports that As Putin eyes sure reelection, Russia’s economy defies sanctions, critics:

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Russia’s success in evading Western sanctions has helped its economy outperform expectations ahead of Vladimir Putin’s all but certain re-election on Sunday.

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So much for sanctions.

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Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian economy has consistently defied the dire predictions of critics.

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Told ya, nyah, nyah.

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That resilience appears to be holding firm as Russians head to the polls between Friday and Sunday for a presidential election that is set to ensure Putin’s rule until at least 2030.

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And neither have the Russian people turned against Putin, though that's only because all meaningful opponents are in jail or dead.

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At the start of the war, the International Monetary Fund expected a prolonged recession, forecasting the economy to contract by 8.5 percent in 2022 and 2.3 percent in 2023. While Russia’s economy did shrink in 2022, the contraction was just 1.2 percent, according to government figures. Last year, the economy officially grew 3.6 percent.

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I wonder what predictions the IMF is making now that we don't yet know we should ignore.Naturally conditions in Russia are dire:

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“I can’t say sanctions have had a big impact on me,” Nikolai Zlatarev, a Moscow resident who works in education, told Al Jazeera. “My weekly shop is a little more expensive and I buy more Russian brands. But I doubt that drinking Dobry Cola instead of Coca-Cola will change the election.”

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And there's nothing we can do because Putin is threatening the nuclear option. Ukraine? Take it. Moldova? It's yours. Estonia? Really? But they're one of the few NATO countries exceeding 2% of GDP spending on defense. But you insist? Well, okay, just don't drop those bombs. Poland? Oh, come on, not Poland. But you'll start dropping those bombs? Okay, okay, take Poland. And take Hungary while you're at it, he likes you anyway.--Percy

When he took office and for months afterward, House Speaker Mike Johnson's future seemed to be one of doormat for House MAGA Republicans, but he has shown occasional signs of a backbone, and an op-ed piece at CNN says he has experienced a Churchillian moment. High praise, especially in this era where we dethrone and scapegoat even our most cherished dead heroes.To say that Mike Johnson is new and experienced in the House Speaker role is an understatement. He isn't the greenest of the green, but he's pretty green, rising from the backbenches to the speakership. Nonetheless he not only demonstrated considerable courage in standing up to the MAGA branch of his party from which he sprang, but also considerable skill in piloting a $60 billion bill for Ukraine through the House even while putting his own job in peril.The reasoning Johnson described showed considerable acumen, and rather than try to paraphrase the CNN account I shall quote it:

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But Johnson argued the international situation is so grave that the House had no choice, warning that Russia, China and Iran are “a global threat to our prosperity and our security. Their advance threatens the free world, and it demands American leadership. (If) we turn our backs right now, the consequences could be devastating.”

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Well, yes, of course. That is obvious to all but the MAGA branch of the Republican party which wants to turn its back on the world and pretend that what happens there does not affect us here. If not for Churchill and Roosevelt during WWII the Nazi Party might yet be running all of Europe, including Great Britain.The MAGA position is that America's NATO allies are freeloading off the American defense umbrella. But even if they were doing nothing for their own defense and putting the entire burden on us, we would suffer nearly as much as they should Europe fall to Russia.Loudmouths Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, among others, want Johnson's head for this betrayal of their manic desire for one-party-faction rule. Who knows where it will end, but we could, and might yet, have far worse speakers than Mike Johnson.--Percy

Aren't you accepting too much without sufficient verification on just LamarkNewAge's say so? To quote your own words back to you from a different conversation I had with you:

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There have been reports and claims suggesting that Ukrainian officials, including mayors, have faced pressure or consequences for not meeting mobilization targets...However, the situation is complex, and it's essential to consider the sources and context of such claims.
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However, reports of punitive measures against mayors specifically for not forcing citizens into combat should be verified through credible sources.

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It's important to rely on verified information from reputable sources and to consider the complexities of the conflict and the challenges faced by Ukraine in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Independent verification and investigative reporting are crucial in understanding the situation accurately.

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--Percy

I'm an avid tennis player and know a bit of its history, so I'm about to refer to a figure many have forgotten. Bill Tilden dominated tennis during the 1920's as had no other before him. Time marched on and as he aged Tilden would occasionally comment that he was as good as he ever was, just less often.And so it is with conservative columnist George F. Will whose op-ed piece in today's Washington Post (So, 112 ignoble, infantile Republicans voted to endanger civilization) is a remarkably clear statement of the situation with Ukraine. I know most don't have access through WaPo's paywall so I will quote at length: Nice job, George. Not all the time, maybe, but you've still got it. --Percy