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Author Topic:   Ukraine's future
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 1 of 65 (720915)
02-28-2014 11:16 AM


So as we are all seeing unfold the future of Ukraine is becoming ever more uncertain.
Will Ukraine become a westernized part of the EU.
Or
Remain a state tied to the Federation of Russia?
What are the ramifications of either?
Will Russia begin a Anschluss?
I fear President Putin is already mobilizing along the eastern border and has unmarked troops in Crimea.
This is of course speculation.
Any forumite thoughts on this?
Coffee House if promoted.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 23 of 65 (721042)
03-03-2014 9:53 AM


Welcome back cold war
I think that I am bias when it comes to matters concerning Russia.
I am a cold war kid and propagandized against the red menace.
That being said I still do not trust Russia. The BS they pulled in
Georgia and now Ukraine is proof that Russia still has a cold war mentality when it comes to it's surrounding territory.
After reading everyones comments I get the impression that we all agree that this is most unfortunate and will be bad in what ever form it takes.
This is what I see happening. Nothing.
Russia will keep troops there and the rest of the world will bitch and moan. Ukraine will be forced to either defend itself or face occupation. Which technically has already occured.
The U.S. will condemn it and cut Russia out of the G8 but other than sanctions we will be the last ones to want a military confrontation with our old cold war enemies.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by Theodoric, posted 03-03-2014 10:08 AM 1.61803 has replied
 Message 26 by dronestar, posted 03-03-2014 10:34 AM 1.61803 has replied

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 25 of 65 (721047)
03-03-2014 10:27 AM
Reply to: Message 24 by Theodoric
03-03-2014 10:08 AM


Re: Welcome back cold war
Theodoric writes:
What else can we do?
War is not an option. Is it?
This is a mexican stand off to see who will blink first.
Russia is counting on the world not willing to risk war.
We are counting on Russia to not risk their economy and world standing.
It is not in the U.S.A. best interest to engage in yet another war.
After being at war for the last 13-14 years we simply would bankrupt the country even further.
Putin and President Obama will have to find a way for both sides to save face. Diplomacy is the only real option. imo.
But that is not to say Ukraine will stand by and be occupied like this. If they suffer more causalties at the hands of the Russian Federation I honestly do not know what the US and Nato would do. Also, there is the possibilty that Ukraine is just the beginning
of a new era of Russian land grabs.
Edited by 1.61803, : No reason given.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 27 of 65 (721055)
03-03-2014 10:58 AM
Reply to: Message 26 by dronestar
03-03-2014 10:34 AM


Re: I'd prefer Ukraine be independent from Russia and Europe/NATO.
Hi dronester,
Why do you see the splinter in your brother's eye but not notice the log in your own eye?
I don't. I am aware of many of the evils that the U.S. perpetuated in the past and today.
But I believe the difference is the Ukraine is a free independent nation that wants to join the EU.
Mother Russian says "nyet!" What right does Russia have to occupy with military show of force in Ukraine's territory?
The U.S. has in the past attempted to replace other countries elections with pro U.S. sympathetic leaders.
We staged coups, we attempted assinations.
But the U.S. has never completley took them over and violated their independance. If that were the case then CUBA should be a territory of the U.S. and it clearly is not.
Also the world is a different place than the world of 17th century,
or 18th century or even the 20th century. Military territorial expansion is frowned upon.
So when it comes to scrutiny, the Russian Federation is looking like a bully right now.
Edited by 1.61803, : spelling.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 31 of 65 (721162)
03-04-2014 11:31 AM
Reply to: Message 28 by dronestar
03-03-2014 3:56 PM


Re: Orwellian baseline?
Hi dronester,
As I said previously I am not going to sit here and try and defend the US previous actions illegal or not. I do not agree with what was done or why. Wrong is wrong regardless of what language it is in.
dronester writes:
Ukraine to have any NATO bases in Russia's backyard?
This is not about NATO bases in Russia's back yard.
This is about Russia seizing power, upsurping a sovereign country's borders air space and water ways to protect a tyrant and self interest.
This is about Putin shitting his pants because he and his ex KGB
cronies know the gig is up, we haz the interwebz now. People in eastern Europe are now embracing freedom over tyranny. People are wisening up.
As hyprocritical as my president is in condemning what Russia is doing, I feel he is right in his condemnation and Putin is wrong.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by dronestar, posted 03-03-2014 3:56 PM dronestar has replied

Replies to this message:
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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 33 of 65 (721166)
03-04-2014 11:53 AM
Reply to: Message 29 by Taz
03-03-2014 6:27 PM


Taz writes:
please holy virgin mary don't let the US send in troops. Let someone else take up the responsibility this time.
I with you on this one brother. Fort Hood is as we speak is one of the the first bases to implement early ETS, and transition enticements into Army Reserves. We are war weary.
The only people who seem to want war are hawks, neocons and the Military industrial complex.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


(1)
Message 34 of 65 (721167)
03-04-2014 12:04 PM
Reply to: Message 30 by AZPaul3
03-03-2014 8:41 PM



"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 36 of 65 (721190)
03-04-2014 6:05 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by dronestar
03-04-2014 11:52 AM


Re: Orwellian baseline?
dronester writes:
But when the condemnation comes from Kerry or Obama, it makes Kerry or Obama look like a million times worse than Adolf Hitler. Literally. (Since we are already talking about war criminals, bringing up Hitler would not be against Godwin's Law)
Godwin's law yep you confirmed it and it is only message 32.
Comparing Obama with Hitler is something I am use to since I live in a Tea Party conservative red state. Still waiting for the barb wire and construction of all the Death Camps to begin.
dronester writes:
With Obama attacking Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, etc, airspace with illegal and immoral drones, I should think your american voice would be more constructive condemning american international violations.
Oh I have enough condemnation to go around.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 46 of 65 (722897)
03-25-2014 5:22 PM


Anschluss part 1
Well part of Ukraine has been annexed by the Sovi....er I mean
the Russian Federation. Tanks and troops amassing on the border. Stay tuned to see if the west can scare the bear into not taking more of the pie.
Edited by 1.61803, : add photo

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

  
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


(1)
Message 48 of 65 (723061)
03-26-2014 10:26 AM
Reply to: Message 47 by Coyote
03-25-2014 11:48 PM


Hi Coyote, I agree.
By the time Adolf invaded Czech it was pretty much to late.
Putin is smart. He will poke and prod for weaknesses and take what he can and already has. Crimea is worth more to him than being in the Big 8 club or sanctions. He looks strong and in control and the rest of the world stands by waiting for his next move. I don't think he would risk or want an all out war because that would not suit his plans. He is a savy poker player imo.
The question now is who is going to call his bluff.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 51 of 65 (723213)
03-27-2014 5:41 PM
Reply to: Message 49 by AZPaul3
03-27-2014 4:41 PM


AZPaul3 writes:
How about war? You really want to call his bluff you have to follow through. You have to go in and force them out. Anyone prepared to do that?
What is the alternative?
Is the world prepared to start allowing larger more powerful countries to take over what they will?
If we do nothing what message does that send?
Am I prepared to go to war? No, of course I choose peace. But sometimes the most peace loving person must act. A bully only understands force. You let him steal your lunch money, the next day he may want your shoes.
And so on.
I think the world will stand by and wait to see what President Putin's next move is. We will most likely redraw the maps and hope Putin is satisfied with his slice of newly aquired territory.
Edited by 1.61803, : redundant.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 53 of 65 (723253)
03-28-2014 10:35 AM
Reply to: Message 52 by AZPaul3
03-27-2014 10:58 PM


AZPaul3 writes:
-Would any sane man push the button?
No.
- Given his obvious megalomania is Putin such a sane man?
I believe he is.
- Are you willing to bet the lives of a few hundred million people and the entire economic structure of the planet on your analysis?
Sometimes we have no choice.
Sometimes war is thrust upon us. Sometimes we must act.
Ukraine could lose more than a port. The could lose their whole country.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by AZPaul3, posted 03-27-2014 10:58 PM AZPaul3 has replied

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 55 of 65 (723264)
03-28-2014 12:19 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by AZPaul3
03-28-2014 11:11 AM


Re: Arm chair speculation
AZPaul3 writes:
#2 is a bit more problematic for me, not that I think you are wrong, just that I'm not sure we really know with any adequate comfort level. For me, then, that means I cannot risk
Nikita Khrushchev crazy as he may of been did not want to press the button. (thankfully!!) I do not think Putin is anymore crazier.
AZPaul3 writes:
Do you think that such a war could be limited to just the Crimean peninsula?
I honestly do not think Putin is really prepared to go to all out war. He would most likely lose and drag his country into economic collaspe due to starting a war and such.
But if NATO shows weakness he will invade. I am almost certain of it. I hope I am just a bias cold war baby.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by AZPaul3, posted 03-28-2014 11:11 AM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 58 of 65 (723363)
03-31-2014 10:01 AM
Reply to: Message 57 by AZPaul3
03-29-2014 8:06 AM


Re: Arm chair speculation
Talks have stalled. No deal made.
But at least there is talk. The fact that Russia is talking is
hopeful, put I agree with you Crimea is Russian territory now unless someone has the will to kick them out.
As you said lets hope that appeases the bear.

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 64 of 65 (733854)
07-22-2014 10:50 AM
Reply to: Message 63 by Modulous
07-18-2014 3:12 PM


Re: the BUK stops here
Modulous writes:
this juncture, it's not a civil war affecting them that we should be most worried about.
Then what are you thinking is the biggest worry?
Mine is the fact that Putin could light a big fat cigar up and say in public: " Ya, I did it. So what? Whattya gonna do about it?"

"You were not there for the beginning. You will not be there for the end. Your knowledge of what is going on can only be superficial and relative" William S. Burroughs

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 Message 63 by Modulous, posted 07-18-2014 3:12 PM Modulous has replied

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