Register | Sign In


Understanding through Discussion


EvC Forum active members: 59 (9164 total)
2 online now:
Newest Member: ChatGPT
Post Volume: Total: 916,924 Year: 4,181/9,624 Month: 1,052/974 Week: 11/368 Day: 11/11 Hour: 0/2


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   most scientific papers are wrong?
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 14 of 113 (240013)
09-02-2005 3:07 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by randman
09-01-2005 1:22 AM


Did you even read the contents of this article?!
quote:
John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece, says that small sample sizes, poor study design, researcher bias, and selective reporting and other problems combine to make most research findings false. But even large, well-designed studies are not always right, meaning that scientists and the public have to be wary of reported findings.
quote:
Odds get even worse for studies that are too small, studies that find small effects (for example, a drug that works for only 10% of patients), or studies where the protocol and endpoints are poorly defined, allowing researchers to massage their conclusions after the fact
Emphasis mine.
This article is primarily about the pharmaceutical industry. We are talking about studies involving efects on human beings, and more importantly, studies that have a direct financial impact on the companies who pay for them.
This is the actual paper published, rather than the acrticle about it.
Please note that this is from the Public Library of Science Medicine journal.
Here's a bit of their "Example:"
quote:
Let us assume that a team of investigators performs a whole genome association study to test whether any of 100,000 gene polymorphisms are associated with susceptibility to schizophrenia.
Studies based on pharmaceuticals, or psychology, or other studies that involve interaction with humans as test subjects, can easily reach inaccurate conclusions. Human beings are incredibly complex, and drugs can cause side effects only in a tiny poulation and thereby pass through regulations testing. The bias of the company who pays for a study (in the case where there is a direct financial benefit for a certain outcome) can also cause inaccurate results.
However, the paper's point is valid - scientific papers begin as simply hypotheses - they have been put foprward with supporting evidence but have not yet been fully tested by other research groups. Of course most of them are falisfied - that's the entire point of the scientific method!
Those hypotheses that are held to be true by the majority of scientists, however, like, say, Evolution for example, have been rigorously tested by many reasearch groups and have still not been falsified. That fact that most initial research papers are wrong simply provides additional credibility to Theories, like Evolution, which have not been falsified despite the rigorous testing imposed by the peer review process.

Every time a fundy breaks the laws of thermodynamics, Schroedinger probably kills his cat.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by randman, posted 09-01-2005 1:22 AM randman has not replied

  
Rahvin
Member
Posts: 4046
Joined: 07-01-2005
Member Rating: 8.3


Message 17 of 113 (240054)
09-02-2005 6:11 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by jar
09-02-2005 5:56 PM


Re: Even though randman is unable to participate ...
this does have the potential for a reasonable discussion.
The study could be important because it points to one of the great strengths of the scientific method.
Studies are published. Information is freely distributed.
That change is enormous. Before the advent of the scientific method ideas were held back, hoarded as secrets. Today we see just the opposite, the ideas are placed out before the community.
The article says that many or even most may turn out to be wrong. That's probably true. But that is also one of the strengths of the system and method. By placing the ideas out in the public discussion area, others can test them and try to replicate the studies. It is that step, the replication, not opinion, not beliefs, not authority, not dogma, that determines which are valid and which are wrong.
It is those two features,
* early distribution and discussion of ideas
* that must then be independantly confirmed and replicated
that makes the scientific method so robust and successful.
Far from being a condemnation of the process, the article is infact a celebration of the scientific method.
Entirely true. While the article claims that most initial publications are wrong, the fact that the scientific community readily abandons disproven hypotheses gives additional credence to actual tested Theories like Evolution.

Every time a fundy breaks the laws of thermodynamics, Schroedinger probably kills his cat.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by jar, posted 09-02-2005 5:56 PM jar has not replied

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024