[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mr BLonDe:
http://evolution-facts.org/c07.htm
I'd say that link does a nice job explaining why the possiblilities are pretty slim.
[/B][/QUOTE]
Actually w.r.t. the stats it does not explain them at all. Fortunately I am quite aware of Hoyles arguement. I copied this from anothger board that I post on (it is mine so there is the atribution.
They appear to be using as a basis the types of numbers that Sir Frederick Hoyle has used in "Evolution from Space" and other books. There have been numerous articles demonstrating the erros in the assumptions behind these numbers so I will only name a few.
1) In Evolution from Space Dr. Hoyle starts be comparing gorilla and human hemoglobin as a basis for his assumptions in the allowability of mutations in proteins, and eventually for his abiogenesis calculations. He could just as well have chosen the hemoglobin from yeast or from bacteria. Yes, some bacteria and other unicellular life contain hemoglobins, which have certian structural, sequence and functional similarities to the gorilla and human protein but have are a very large number of amino acid differences from humans (or gorillas). The point is that he chose a protein which, in most mammals, has a great deal of environmental selection which results in the maintainence of a specific population structure for his calulations. He uses this faulty comparison as a basis for most of his subsequent claims.
He then makes a jump, sans data other than a vague reference to his faulty hemoglobin calculation, to defining a 200 amino acid protein and then says that the odds of the backbone structure being correct are 10^15 and the odds of the active site being correct are 10^5. ANOTHER big error, actually two errors. He then said that the odds of the two forming together were 10^20 (another error here, give me a minute ). Finally, he said that there were ~ 2000 basic proteins in nature giving a grand value of 10^40,000 (10^20 to the 2000). Hooo boy, that really big number MUST mean something, ....and yes it does. It means that Dr. Hoyle should stick to astrophysics because w.r.t. biology and biochemistry he is a bust.
First, he is assuming one structure to one function. It is an a priori assumption that has no basis in fact and actually goes against facts in molecular biology and protein chemistry. In fact, his error is even more fundamental than this because he is assuming a single end point (life as it currently exists) before he even starts, which is statistical nonsense. It is like laying down a sequence of 52 cards. The odds are 8 x 10^67 for that sequence, but you just did it. Now, if you had said that you were going to lay down that sequnce BEFORE you started dealing that would be something . The second error in his first number(s) is that the backbone structure and active site structure are BOTH dependent on the primary structure (ie the sequence), you can not break them down the way that he was. In fact, many changes can be made to the amino acid sequence of a protein without changing the structure or the function at all. Especially in areas that are NOT part of the active site. For example, 5% of the amino acids in a small protein that I work with are not part of the original structure (they were added in) and they do not effect the activity of the protein AT ALL.
Next, the error with the 10^20 was that he was making his base calculations as if the backboen and the active site were not related, that would yield a value of 10^75 (in non-related the powers are multiplied, in related they are added). I will admit that Hoyle, when he did his 10^20 calculation, said that the two were related but then he should have gone back and correct his first two numbers!
Finally, in real abiogenesis no one talks about pure chance, which is what he is using in his calculations here. Abiogenesis (which is separate from evolution) is based on the laws and probabilities of chemcistry and physics. This substantially changes the real probabilities and is another reason why pretty much all of these calculations are bogus.
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"Chance favors the prepared mind." L. Pasteur
Taz