"Likely true"? Well - if it's down to probability, what is the probability of an eye evolving 40 times by convergence? Shall I be generous and say the chances of eye evolution are 1 in 2? That would then be 1 in 3 X 340. Is it likely true that the aggregate eye of the Trilobite solved the problems with optics?
Probability is a tricky area, and you're making the mistake of looking at the odds of the particular result, instead of the odds of a successful result.
A fair analogy is the lottery. For our non-UK readers, the lottery here chooses 6 numbers, from 1 to 49. The odds of any one particular combination occurring are around one in 14 million.
However, the odds of a successful combination occurring is (I'm guessing from the number of rollovers) currently around 3 in 5. This is obviously due to the number of tickets people buy.
Evolution doesn't require a particular winning combination. It just requires any winning combination, whatever it may be.
And with every organism in a species getting a free ticket, the odds of successful evolution in that species are very high.
So the odds of me, Vimesey, being the end product of millions of years of evolution, sitting here in Brum, typing this - vanishingly small. The odds of some life form being here filling the biological niche I fill - virtually certain.
Evolution fired its arrow at the wall, and hit it where I am. You're looking to paint a target around the point of impact, and claim that the arrow must have hit there by design, because the odds of it hitting that particular point on the wall is tiny.
In reality, evolution just has to hit the wall.
Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?