Overall, I think your idea is really cool - a way to test different ideas, based on the evidence. So, though there are plenty of caveats to take into account (as other posters have mentioned), I bet you have a good idea for the core of a paper. Of course, do take all those things mentioned above into account, see if there is still a Sigmoid curve, etc.
In fact, even if there isn't, your paper could then talk about looking for the Sigmoid curve and deciding that it wasn't here in this case. Either way, sounds like a cool idea to me.
-Equinox
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You know, it's probably already answered at
An Index to Creationist Claims...
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