Being a nerd that I am, I was watching a Nova program last night on bird flu.
Some facts I learned that I didn't know before:
1) In 1918 an outbreak of bird flu occured in the human population that killed 50 million people.
2) Most variations of the virus that causes bird flu only infects the lower abdominal regions, literally causing the infected to poop out the virus.
3) In 1918, the outbreak occured in the human population because a random mutation somewhere along the line gave a specific variation of the virus the "recipe" for cough and sneeze.
4) If you put an infinite number of monkeys in an infinitely large room with an infinite number of typewriters and each monkey would start randomly pushing the typewriters' buttons, you're going to have at least 1 perfect copy of Hamlet.
5) We do not know what the "recipe" for cough and sneeze is so we can't really estimate the probability of a specific virus being produced inside a specific cell of a specific bird at a specific time, right down to the millisecond, at a specific place with a specific person susceptible to the new mutation living among a specific human population in a specific region that allows the infection to spread beyond the local area at a specific relative time that allows the infection the opportunity to spread to 50 million people before it was contained.
We do not know what the recipe for cough and sneeze is, so we cannot really estimate the probability of it occuring considering the following factors:
i) a specific virus being produced inside a specific cell
ii) of a specific bird at a specific time, right down to the millisecond,
iii) at a specific place with a specific person susceptible to the new mutation
iv) living among a specific human population
v) in a specific region that allows the infection to spread beyond the local area
vi) at a specific relative time that allows the infection the opportunity to spread to 50 million people before it was contained
6) Yet, in 1918 it happened!
Relating the Nova program to the improbability argument on both abiogenesis and events of so-called positive mutations that allow a specific individual belonging to a specific population living in a specific environment that favors certain specific traits within that specific population at a specific time frame for the mutations to be truly positive with the specific conditions to allow the individual to spread its advantageous mutation enough that it would one day change the allele frequency of the population, *deep breath* how improbable is it that it has to be labeled as impossible by creationists and how do we know how to calculate the probability?
Relating the Nova program to the improbability argument on both abiogenesis and events of so-called positive mutations considering the following factors:
i) that allow a specific individual
ii) belonging to a specific population
iii) living in a specific environment that favors certain specific traits within that specific population
iv) at a specific time frame for the mutations to be truly positive
v) with the specific conditions to allow the individual to spread its advantageous mutation enough that it would one day change the allele frequency of the population
how improbable is it that it has to be labeled as impossible by creationists and how do we know how to calculate the probability?
Where to put this? I'll rely on an admin's pressumably good judgement on this life and death issue.
This message has been edited by GoodIntentions, 01-11-2006 06:27 PM
This message has been edited by GoodIntentions, 01-11-2006 08:50 PM
™ Version 4.2