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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Dominic Raab out of Tory leadership race as five proceed - BBC News Race looks like this now: Boris Johnson - 126 votesJeremy Hunt - 46 Michael Gove - 41 Rory Stewart - 37 Sajid Javid - 33 Mathematically, Johnson's lead will be very difficult to overtake. The other candidates put together have 157 votes. That is more than Johnson's 126 but it is likely many of those votes might end up in his pocket as others drop out.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
A lead in the Parliamentary votes isn't really relevant though. All that matters is finishing in the top two so as to progress to the final vote by their whole party membership. Opinion polls suggest the majority of party members will vote for Boris, so all these elimination rounds are likely a bit irrelevant. It does seem somewhat of a done deal now. I think they are only going through the motions to give the impression of due diligence. But unless Boris somehow tanks his candidacy by doing or saying something stupid, I pretty much see him as being the next PM.
44% of them would be happy to have Farage as party leader Yikes! And I thought we had problems in the USA.
a majority consider leaving the EU more important than the continued existence of the United Kingdom, the continued existence of the Conservative Party, and the healthy functioning of the British economy That basically shows that dogma and zealotry have taken over. Which is quite disconcerting. But unfortunately, they have now made their Brexit bed so to speak. Brexit defines the Conservative party at this stage and I think they believe if they don't deliver, it will fracture the party and alienate their base. Well, should be an interesting ride.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Tory leadership: Sajid Javid knocked out of contest - BBC News Should know by the end of today who are the final two.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
The Conservative party went nuts over Brexit, won’t listen to reason and the leading alternative is Boris Johnson. That's about the size of it. Additionally, the Labour party under Corbyn hasn't exactly been effective either. Despite favoring remain, there were still many in the party (Corbyn included) who were Euro-skeptics.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Tory leadership: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are final two - BBC News
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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We're fucked, might as well try to enjoy it. Think of England. Hey Tangle: did you notice you made that statement in post '666' of this thread? Coincidence? Or something more.....
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Because her own Party was about to kick her out. They would have changed the rule that limited challenges to their leader just so they could do it, which wouldn’t have been good for the Party either. So she jumped first, because anything else was worse. The EU elections also sealed her fate. When the Brexit party took so many seats and the Conservative party lost a whole slew of MEPs, that basically put the final nail in the May coffin.If she had remained and a general election was somehow called, the Conservatives would have been trounced. Sadly, I don't see what Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt are going to be able to do at this stage. The EU has stated they are unwilling to renegotiate and either potential PM is more hard line with regards to a No Deal Brexit. Johnson more so. I also think there is no chance of any further extensions to the deadline. October 31st seems to be etched in stone. On Halloween no less.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Happy Boris Day everyone! future generations will mark this day by wearing ridiculous blonde wigs and spending the day lying compulsively, to remember when the UK got its worst Prime minister ever. Not really a surprise at this stage. But nonetheless, Boris is the new PM. I see the Pound Sterling is already down in trading. Now comes the interesting part: how will he fix Brexit? Not sure he even knows.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
He will probably adopt his predecessor's policy and just repeat irrelevant facts: "Brexit means Brexit."--Theresa May I'm still waiting for discussions around rebuilding Hadrian's Wall. And I hope it will be YUUUUUUGE!! Gotta keep them pesky Scot's at bay, don't yah know?
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Boris is now PM. He indicated he is going to negotiate a new deal with the EU and also demand removal of the Irish backstop.
The EU has stated that there will be no further negotiations on the existing deal and that the Irish backstop has to remain in place. Who is going to blink?
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
PM Johnson may not blink, but Parliament will. The EU has major leverage with the Irish border, and I expect they will use it to the fullest. I just wonder how much clout Parliament will actually have considering the circumstances. While Johnson is maintaining the premise of wanting an augmented deal, he has no qualms about no deal. And despite some of the recent voting in Parliament, that is the default option. The only way to avoid a no deal if the current deal cannot be augmented is getting another extension or revoking article 50. I don't see either of those scenarios as being likely. And I don't know if Parliament can vote on a general election. I think that can only be called by the Prime Minister. Correct me if I am wrong.And that notwithstanding, there is insufficient time to have a general election before the October 31st deadline.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
The PM no longer has the power to call an early election. Parliament can, but it needs a two-thirds majority to do so. What they could do is vote no confidence in Johnson's government, and then if no one else can form a government within two weeks an election has to be held. My suspicion is a 2/3rds majority is not likely. I suppose a vote of no confidence is a possibility, but being that this is a new PM with a new cabinet, that may not get traction either. I guess as the situation unfolds, things and sentiment may change. But we are only three months away from the deadline. And I don't see Johnson asking for any extension at this stage since he is hell bent on leaving on October 31st. And there is no guarantee that the EU would even grant one. The most disconcerting thing is I still have not heard one, tangible idea for solving the Irish backstop issue. All I hear is platitudes. If they exit on October 31st, doesn't that in essence ensure a hard border in Northern Ireland? I keep hearing them mention technology. But that actually has to be built and implemented. Don't think there has been any headway in that department.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
The following link has a five year chart of the Sterling vs the US Dollar:
British Pound to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe The pre-Brexit high was 1.69 to the US dollar. The downward trend started around 2014 to 2015. Which I believe was when they announced the Brexit referendum. And of course, it cratered when the vote occurred. And is now trading around 1.22 to the US dollar. Some of this is also attributed to the strengthening of the dollar post the Great Recession. But still, a pretty massive drop considering how strong the currency was at the peak.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
As has been the case for at least several hundred years the UK relies on imports for its very existence. A lower pound would make all imports more expensive even ignoring tariff issues. It will make exports more attractive even ignoring tariff issues. Can the UK increase exports and also reduce the demand for imports to at least keep the economy relatively stable? If so, how? I think the answer might be yes and no. Depending on the commodity, a weaker pound might incentivize investment in local production of a particular good or service since it now becomes more economically feasible to produce that locally. But I think you can only take that so far. There are a great many consumer staples that simply can't be produced in the UK. Various produce and fruits for example. I don't know the full details to articulate exactly how that would play out. But regardless, its not like anyone can flick a switch overnight and suddenly start producing more goods and services on a whim. So in the near to medium term, an import economy like the UK will get a double whammy from a lower sterling and potentially, tariffs. I am wondering if Boris is thinking he will flip a proverbial F U to the EU and start importing more from Canada and the USA. That could offset the tariff issue if he negotiates some deal. Trump would of course love that. But even still, the weaker pound would still make that expensive. Maybe slightly less so since the US dollar is a little weaker than the Euro. And can someone smarter than me explain how they will fix the Irish border?
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