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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
but no majority in favour of any compromise between these two positions. I see no solution. The currency markets seem to be echoing that sentiment. Just before Brexit, the Pound-Sterling was 1.5:1 against the US dollar. It now sits at 1.28:1. I am guessing that the markets in general are foreshadowing a hard Brexit. I am not seeing a lot of optimism on a deal being ratified.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Looks like May and her advisers have a draft of a potential new deal that seems to have been endorsed by the EU representatives. Now she has to get it to pass in parliament:
quote: Theresa May seeks cabinet backing for Brexit plan - BBC News The more right wing conservatives could still try to block it. But it definitely appears as though they may be on the verge of an agreement that satisfies Brussels.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
In addition to Raab, Vara (Minister of State at the Northern Ireland Office) and McVey (Work and Pensions Secretary) have resigned. Vara went before Raab. The Brexiteers are pulling out. The next question is whether they will try to replace May or just vote down the deal. Yikes. What's the British term for clusterf*%k?
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Or maybe I missed it. Anyone can refer me to Nigel's recent comments on the Irish border problem? I found one recent video on youtube with Nigel commenting on the Irish border. But honestly, he isn't offering any concrete solutions. He is just claiming the administration is using it as an excuse to delay or cancel Brexit. Video is below.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
There is now a deal. Widely derided as shit by remainers and leavers alike. But Theresa May is pushing it as the only deal in town and so are the EU The EU representatives are voting in favor of the deal. They actually made their decision in less than an hour. Which leads me to believe that it is likely more favorable to the EU than it is to the UK. EU leaders agree UK's Brexit deal at Brussels summit - BBC News I don't know the likelihood of this passing parliament. The odds right now are not in May's favor but there is still a possibility that MPs will grudgingly agree to it since there is little time for an alternative.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Looks like the final verdict on May's Brexit deal is now set for December 11th:
Brexit deal: Theresa May gives herself two weeks to win over MPs | Brexit | The Guardian Right now, the likelihood of the deal passing parliament appear to be slim. However, considering there is no alternative and the EU has stated they will not negotiate further, I am wondering if various MPs will just grudgingly vote in favor of the deal. It seems the British people are fed up with the bickering and just want them to get on with it. Naturally, Trump threw a monkey wrench into things when he stated it looks like a deal that heavily favors the EU.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
The DUP, of all people, have decided it's better than no deal. Not all of them:
quote: Brexit: DUP's Nigel Dodds says Brexit deal 'worse than no deal' - BBC News DUP's leader kind of flip-flopped somewhat. She seems to claim the deal is 'propaganda', but at the same time is telling MPs to 'vote in the national interest'. DUP's Foster hits out at May's Brexit 'propaganda' tour - BBC News Lot of political shenanigans going on. But I still surmise that when the vote comes, many MPs will simply vote for it since the likelihood of a viable alternative seems to be non-existent.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
quote: Brexit backstop plan is calculated risk - Geoffrey Cox - BBC News It seems the quagmire has gotten worse. I had honestly thought that having a deal in hand might finally cement the situation. But it appears to be causing the opposite effect. Another key Brexit minister resigning just exacerbates the situation. From what I read, there is a strong possibility that this deal will fail in the House of Commons. If that happens, what's next? Vote of no confidence? Labour is also pushing for another referendum. Although the time frame seems to short to accommodate that. Currency markets seem to be leaning towards a Hard Brexit outcome. The Pound Sterling is now at 1.27 to the US dollar.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Now, the government has been held in contempt. For the first time in known history that an entire government is in contempt of parliament. I wonder if they get a plaque for that?
Regarding the options, it appears we have three: 1. The deal gets voted on an wins; judging by the turmoil, it appears highly unlikely this will occur. But as mentioned earlier, it is possible that the strident Brexiteers may decide it is better to vote for this deal than risk the possibility of a worse deal or another referendum. 2. The deal gets voted on, loses, and there is a hard Brexit. Personally, I doubt this will occur. It appears no one, including the British people, want to see no deal after all these shenanigans. 3. A second referendum after the deal is voted down. In all honesty, this now appears to be the most likely scenario. The real question is what will that referendum actually ask. Will it be a referendum on the deal itself, asking the British people if it should be adopted? Or will it include the option of cancelling Brexit all together? The fact that an EU representative has now stated on record that the triggering of Article 50 can be reversed, it is possible that Brexit may end up not occurring. There is one alternate option I didn't mention which is also a possibility: the deal gets voted down and Theresa May gets a no confidence vote or resigns. This could set the stage for Boris Johnson stepping in. If that occurs, my suspicion is he may just opt for a hard Brexit ultimatum. Maybe trying to put the screws to the EU. Although I doubt that would have much effect. Unless he can argue that a Norway or Canada style deal is still possible. Interesting times lay ahead.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
So they are now providing some details on the legal advice pertaining to the deal and it appears that the main issue (not surprisingly) is the backstop aspect regarding the Irish border.
Brexit: Legal advice warns of Irish border 'stalemate' - BBC News
quote: The part of this that is likely troubling for the existing prime minister and her government is if parliament determines she did mislead with her statements, that could trigger a no confidence vote. I don't know how that would play out and if they would delay the actual vote on the deal if that came to pass. Hard to say. The main concern is if the prime minister loses her positions and that triggers a rush to appoint someone else to helm the party, that is just going to exacerbate the situation in my mind. The EU has its flaws, but it is looking mighty stable relative to the UK right now. So all the machinations of parliament may end up completely undermining their bargaining position.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Brexit turmoil rumbles on. In my view a second referendum is becoming increasingly likely. But what do I know...? A definite possibility. Although I have no idea what the second referendum might entail. Would it just be asking the same question before? Stay versus leave? Or would they want something more elaborate? Labour seems to want a referendum that has something like May's Deal, No Deal or Cancel Brexit. I don't think that would fly since it is obviously stacked in favor of Remain. The conservative vote would be split across two options while the liberal vote would just be relegated to one. I think the bigger quagmire will be the near term fallout from the vote if May's deal loses. Which appears likely. But by how much is in question. I think there is a strong likelihood that if her deal loses badly, she may either resign or be forced to resign in a vote of no confidence. If that occurs, then all bets are off.
In other news riots in Paris are underway for the second weekend in a row. Anti Macron. But as far as I can tell wholly unwelcoming to Le Pen and her mob too. The far left and far right elements seem to have made strange bedfellows. Ultimately, the tax appears to not have been well thought out. It places added pressure on working class individuals who need to drive for a living. France's taxes are already quite high as well. So I guess there is only so much blood one can get out of a stone.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
And now it seems that May wants to delay (she says defer) the vote on her deal and renegotiate the Irish backstop Seems that is official now:
quote: Theresa May calls off MPs' vote on her Brexit deal - BBC News Well that is going to be interesting. The EU leaders had stated beforehand that the current deal was 'the only deal'. Not sure how receptive they will be to starting another round of negotiations. The Pound-Sterling is getting hammered again. Now has dropped to 1.25 to the US dollar. All the uncertainty is causing major issues in the currency and stock markets. I happened to watch an Intelligence Squared debate about Brexit on the weekend. Was fairly interesting. It's not up on their Youtube channel yet. But in a nutshell, it was three individuals discussing the three potential options on the table. May's Deal. No Deal/New Deal. And finally, a New Referendum. I'll provide a link once its up on Youtube.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
According to BBC News, it seems the majority of conservative MPs still support her:
Theresa May awaits result of Tory MPs' confidence vote - BBC News
quote: So if that spread holds, she may end up solidifying her position. If she loses, its going to wreak havoc on the already existing Brexit turmoil.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Just flipped on BBC News and it appears May has won the confidence vote. So she will stay at the helm for now.
Still doesn't solve the problem of the Brexit deal. But at least it should silence some of the more strident voices in her party. Probably reduces the likelihood of anyone calling a general election as well.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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Can someone please explain some of the details of the Irish situation in this controversy? What are the issues there? The main issue to resolve is that the government is trying to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; which is still part of the UK. The lack of a border was part of the original Good Friday agreement. When both the Republic of Ireland and the UK were part of the EU, this is a non issue since free movement between countries is part of the EU edict. However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, this essentially eliminates the current 'soft border' that exists. To help alleviate this problem, Theresa May's current deal has an 'Irish Backstop' provision which allows Northern Ireland to operate somewhat independently from the rest of the UK to avoid the need for a hard border. But the provision in the deal leaves this situation very ambiguous and could theoretically exist indefinitely. This has caused deep concern for members of the UK parliament and the DUP in Ireland, since they are still strongly affiliated with the UK. The following Youtube video explains May's deal in more details:
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