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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||
LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
quote: The E.U. is the largest trading partner of the United States, so we are hurt when the U.K. is too weak (due to currency or per capita income issues) to purchase goods. That's an argument against nationalism and borders, not for it. When both the U.K. and the USA are hurt, then the rest of the world suffers, especially the E.U. countries. It cuts all ways in a not so virtuous cycle. Witness the Great Depression. The British have a national debt to GDP ratio of about 90% (the USA is about 75%), and that was based on an economy with immigration and a growing economy. Now that the U.K. seems to want to shrink its way out of its problems, then expect the debt to GDP ratio to get quite a ways worse. (as things get worse,the nationalists will point the finger elsewhere, of course) If other E.U. countries follow suit - leave the E.U. - then a depression is guaranteed. But expect all stock markets to be hurt. This is bad news. The other E.U. countries aren't going to solve a thing by leaving the E.U. Remember that the common currency Euro issue is a totally different one from the European Union. Perhaps the countries can solve their problems by dumping the Euro and having their own currency, then they can devalue their own like 99% to "pay" their debts. That is a different issue.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
Remember that we destroyed their nation after World War 2, because their "communist" people actually had the audacity to defeat the Nazis.
The people overthrew our CIA installed right wing dictators in 1974, and became a democracy that hates the CIA and votes more often with our "enemies" (Russians, Palestinians, Africans etc.) in the UN. Our state department used to classify Greece as part of the Middle East until recently. The CIA propaganda against Greece is just unreal. Greeks understand most of it, but they don't have a clue about the lies the CIA spreads among American blacks. All sorts of "Cleopatra was black" conspiracy theories are very very strong in every single state in the USA. Greeks aren't ignorant of the E.U. or anything. They can read the New Testament in its original language too.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
quote: Hardly a good sign for those who supported exit. This was so predictable. On the plus side, I heard there are (already!) some 3-4 million signatures for a new vote. I hope there is a genuine tie-breaker vote avaliable soon. I hope.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
My link above won't enable you to read it, but you need to find it in google to read. WSJ articles are tricky to read. It is an hour old. I found it by typing "british pound" into google. Just quote some sentences to find it.
Anyway, here is an important part, from the article, I want people to see.
quote: Higher interest rates means less money for spending on programs plus it means higher taxes. Brexit brought this about and it was very predictable. Economics 101.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
In 2014 the Polish income per person was $14,331 U.S. and in actual purchasing power it was $25,265. The purchasing power (PPP) will be about $29,000 per person average by 2017 and 34,302 in 2020.
That purchasing power "feel" the average Pole will enjoy in their native land is about the same as the large E.U. countries of Britain, France, Italy, Germany, etc. But in 2004 the average income was 2004 $6,643 U.S. and a PPP of $14,174. Why on Earth would British keep complaining about those "poor Poles" incentivized to leave their land for other E.U. countries with all the progress? Better to complain about the Ukraine and it's E.U. situation. It had an average income of 2015$2,004 U.S. in 2015 and with a PPP of $7,518. The Polish situation shows that progress is happening fast with (once) poor countries joining the E.U. The Ukraine example shows that the pain (of immigrants coming to "our country" for economic relief from miserable situations at home) will be prolonged. Why not get the transition over with quickly instead of dragging it out for decades longer? Honestly. Lets get on with looking at the evidence so progress can happen quickly when policy is adjusted when based on facts. Ignorance is hurting growth badly. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
A 12% drop this year against the dollar. Good job Brexit supporters. Superb. P.s. Don't forget to check google news for the continued collapse of the pound.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
quote: Serena Williams has lost over $260,000 out of her fortune due to the collapse.
quote: It is worth about $1.31 right now. It was about $1.48 at the time of the Brexit vote. Investors are already moving their money into other countries, though many are living under the delusion that the pound will somehow rebound, thus holding it from further collapse. Eventually interest rates will have to rise (possibly by a lot) if investor stop living under the delusion that they will somehow get a return on their investment that isn't negative. Interest rates were as high as 20%+ in the USA in the early 1980s, and they had to be quite high for a good while till investor confidence returned. The U.K. is playing a dangerous game with this Brexit b.s. (and the economically destructive anti-immigration turn).
quote: Look at how foolish the investors have been in the last year? They are starting to wake up (despite the delusions of the dreamers that are still part of the mix).
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
The currency is loosing value (about 10% since the Brexit vote and well over 15% since a year ago)
Prices are rocketing up.
quote: No wonder the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates the same or 0.25% above what would have happened absent Brexit. Investors are preferring the Japanese yen as more stable than the pound (which is considered more unstable than bit-coin post-Brexit), and that currency should be considered a major risk IMO. So the yen is gaining value against the pound. (like every other currency, including the Euro) When the U.S. dollar was seen as a bad investment in the late 1970s and early 1980s, Japanese investors - who needed to dump the dollars they held - went to the United States land itself to purchase lots of property to protect themselves against dollar inflation. I wonder if this will happen in the U.K. Not yet it seems. See this link Housing market 'falters amid Brexit campaign and vote' - BBC News It says:"Housing market 'falters amid Brexit campaign and vote' 14 July 2016" That is just short term though. Anyway, the suffering during higher prices and higher interest rates are what Ronald Reagan called the measurements of "The Misery Index". His solution was to have interest rates jacked up (Paul Volker was imposing it already) till investor confidence returned, then watch the national debt explode. Reagan (cough) paid for the much higher debt with (cough) tax cuts, and the debt exploded further. He increased military spending by around $100 billion per year by then end of his term (John Stockman attempted to keep the military spending increases minimal but Casper Weinberger won in influencing Reagan to jack them up a ton, though a tired, confused, Reagan only fully decided after Stockman gave him permission to go with Weinberger) and all the spending helped create jobs to compliment the already existing recovery that was in turn during the business cycle. But the debt went up from $800 billion in 1981 to $4.2 trillion in 1993. Interest rates went way down though. The debt to GDP ration was much better for the U.S. in 1980 than for the U.K. in 2016. It was better in 1993 too. Much better still in 2000. A miserable malaise is brewing in the British Isles. There is inflation brewing. What will happen with interest rates and economic growth? What will investors do? (keep buying pounds and at what rate?) Will Quantitative Easing be seen as a legit way to hold rates down? (granted it is presently seen as something not too much to worry over even though government printing money out of nowhere to purchase debt - treasury bonds OR mortgages - on the market was unheard of prior to late 2008) At least this will be interesting.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
quote: They need quantitative easing schemes to enable rate cuts. There will be inflation, but it could be massive if QE ever starts to look like a scheme and fumes itself into a very very bad odor (which will lead to a major crash and burn that would be unprecedented in history as QE itself had no precedent before the 2008 idea flashed like a light-bulb in the meeting halls American Fed which in turn became a worldwide "solution" to avoid having to raise interest rates. ) Warning signs are all around us, despite the general delusion.
quote: The British economy it poised to shrink with all the (recent) anti-immigration sentiment probably leading to actual slowdowns in immigration - a major source of the economic growth. With the driver of economic growth in the U.K. stopped cold, the U.K. economy will follow. The European economy will suffer the slowdown of the U.K. economy. (Poland for sure due to loosing remittances and a driver of their growth, but all will suffer from loosing export sales) A deadly cycle at a very bad time - when national debts are at historically high levels. Receding (or slowing)economies will suffer less revenue from less economic activity. Less revenue to the government will lead to higher deficits. Higher deficits will lead to the need for finding bond purchasers to finance the growing debt. A growing debt and smaller GDP means a very high debt to GDP ratio (which could get way out of hand as has happened in Japan). Quantitative Easing to the rescue? For how long? That's the big question. Very big indeed. The difference between super high interest rates and inflation and very low interest rates and inflation. The difference between a default (which will cascade to multiple nations) on the one hand or steady-as-she-goes fiscal matters on the other. The difference between growth (typically very small) and/or a (slight) recession on the one hand or depression on the other. It's a big question because the consequences are so very big.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
In 2005, only 15% of the world had PPP (purchasing power adjusted yearly income per person ) that was half of the yearly per person United States yearly income. That bumped up to 16% in 2014 (though some fell back from earlier, but the net was toward more PPP equality )
The website below has raw $ and PPP for 2017 and Poland will cross the 50% PPP according to the projections. But Page not found - Statistics.com: Data Science, Analytics & Statistics Courses The disturbing thing is that almost all of the top countries had higher incomes ( in raw dollars though PPP is pleasantly increasing and infact the projected world per capita PPP is at the highest level in history at a projected $17,050) in the past. The actual dollar based incomes (what these countries would see their income be if everything was exchanged for $$$) is actually over $1000 per person lower than a few years ago. And it isn't just the United Kingdom we are talking about here though those idiots did so much of the damage. There are projections going up to 2020 for the world and individual nations. See links on left of the page the link takes you to. The data in these links are literally the most important and telling measures of human progress and I mean it without exaggeration. The 2014 situation had India as the world's 9th largest economy (in straight U. S. $ on the exchange ) and in 2016 it is 7th. In 2020, India will number 5. In purchasing power parity India will hit $9,306 in 2020 which will be an amazing milestone because, despite the overall world hitting an all time projected high of PPP per capita $19,611 in 2020, India will actually be over 50% of the world average for the first time in my lifetime. China will have a PPP above the world average! 20,997 verses 19'611 The most recent data is from October 2016 so understand that the 2016 numbers are also projections. The mmeasure of progress we must note: 2016 PPP16,300 202019,600 The actual (exchange rate )dollar average for 2020 is still less than $1000 higher than the average in 2014-15 though but purchasing power parity is an accurate way to look at how things are able to be afforded by the people of the world. It is a very real measure of progress especially as it relates to whether folks will be motivated to leave or stay in their countrys of origin. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
Conservatives loosing an outright majority might not mean too much really. I don't know.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
The 2017 year will be the first full year of the post Brexit United Kingdom.
Might as well take a look at the economic data when we have it. (Not like it isn't fair to see the report card) (I still have no idea why - with 57% of British incomes spend on housing costs ALONE(!) - immigrants were singled out & seen as some major drag factor, or a drag factor at all, on native Brit's well being. Slow population growth down, and hope for a little housing pressure relief? A real solution to very real economic problems would be nice.) Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
They don't understand that the E.U. member state's free-migration requirement was the ONLY thing allowing free travel between Ireland and North Ireland.
I had to keep repeating it over and over to one guy.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
Scotland was talking about splitting from the U.K. to stay in the E.U., but it was noticed that a good chunk (like 1/3) in Scotland support BOTH Brexit and the Scottish Nationalist Party, so that made the Pro-E.U. SNP much weaker (too weak) when it came to playing an anti-Brexit hand.
(Like 1/3 of SNP voters also supported Brexit) It is a contradiction if one understands that the Scottish Nationalist Party is actually anti-nationalist, but not a contradiction to many SNP supporters. (The SNP confusion is kind of like Gandhi being described as a nationalist even though he was for world government, and kind of like the confusing situation of World War 1 "Arab nationalists" foolishly supporting independence from Turkey ONLY LATER to find out that they weren't for nationalism & crushing anti-immigration borders BUT were simply for independence from single-entity domination) The British always have had a way of creating lots of confusion due to the resulting endless "nationalism" movements to escape domination (they even "helped" Arabs escape domination from Turkey only to destroy the Middle East with never-ending borders WHICH TURKEY NEVER IMPOSED). To the U.K., India was allowed to be its full size, when free travel was a one-way street (white British seemingly can go anywhere, but Indians could not), during the Empire. Borders went up as independence was being successfully fought for. (Not just an "Indian" border to separate from Britain, but India was chopped up ruthlessly by the British) Only when the U.K. gets economic benefits will there be fewer borders and free travel. Otherwise, never-ending borders will be imposed ruthlessly. This whole Brexit thing was over stopping immigration. The British have always had an anti-immigration mindset, and the E.U. is seen, by many Brits, as a pro-immigration Trojan Horse. Viktor Orban (leader of Hungary) shut down a university (tied to George Soros) in his country, because Soros has been a promoter of the European Union, which Orban says has been used to "increase immigration". A scheme to Orban. And, yes, his supporters are often open anti-semites who call immigration a Jewish plot. Brexit is anti-immigration, and it was over immigration. And many Labor supporters were pro Brexit (I read a New York Times article detailing how solidly Labor districts have 1/3 of the Labor supporters also supporting Brexit). And they will tell you it is about immigration. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.
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LamarkNewAge Member Posts: 2424 Joined: Member Rating: 1.3 |
The SNP is strongly in favor of remaining in the E.U., and with the border-free immigration between member states.
The "nationalist" part of the SNP is just about economics and oil revenue.
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