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Author Topic:   Scientific Theory For Dummies
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 9 of 57 (554548)
04-08-2010 9:38 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by Taz
04-04-2010 12:43 AM


Explanation, Falsification, Testing, Absence of Contradiction
Hi Taz, hope the problems are resolve soon.
The point is for us to discuss what a scientific theory is in a language simple enough that can't be obfuscated by dummies.
To my mind there are four elements involved in scientific theories:
(1) Explanation:
The theory explains all existing evidence related to the issue
(2) Falsification:
The theory must be capable of being falsified, and falsification tests are proposed (if A is true then B cannot happen)
(3) Testing, Testing, Testing:
The theory leads to new concepts to test that should only occur if the theory is true or that should not occur if the theory is true, and that this is an ongoing process (a scientific hypothesis is untested, a scientific theory is tested and tested and tested, each test passed leads to a new test)
(4) Absence of Contradictory Evidence:
There cannot be any contradictory evidence or the theory is falsified, there cannot be any evidence that the theory does not explain, or the theory is incomplete.
Personally, I think that People generally seem to get the concept of explanation and testing, but that points (2) and (4) are the ones that people who do not understand science have trouble with. These seem similar at first, but there is a difference: (2) arises from testing, from trying to falsify the theory, while (4) can exist independent of testing, and can even predate the theory, and ignoring it means you are starting with a bad theory (or an incomplete theory).
Certainly I have seen a complete failure to understand falsification, time and again, in these debates.
Enjoy.
PS -- responders please note: this is NOT the place to bring up your pet peeve to claim that "theory X is not falsifiable" etc etc etc: start a new thread if you think you have a valid argument. This thread (as stated in the OP) is to discuss the general process, not any specific applications.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Taz, posted 04-04-2010 12:43 AM Taz has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 10 by subbie, posted 04-08-2010 9:57 PM RAZD has seen this message but not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 12 of 57 (554740)
04-09-2010 7:08 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by Stagamancer
04-09-2010 3:10 PM


Re: Naive falsificationism
So much for simple explanations eh?
I think subbie makes an excellent point here, and I just wanted to add on. The discovery of contradictory evidence does not immediately render a theory false. In the same way that a single datum or experiment cannot "prove" a theory true, one bit of contradictory evidence cannot tear it down. Good theories are ones in which scientists have a high amount of confidence. Contradictory evidence only serves to lessen that confidence. Once it reaches a point where the contradictions outweigh the positive evidence, then the theory is done away with.
And the creationists response would be that "see they never get rid of theories they ..." etc etc etc.
A good theory doesn't have to be a perfect theory, it just has to be the best possible explanation we have right now for the evidence we have on hand.
True, however when there are some contradictory anomalies then the onus shifts to show that they are not significant failures.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by Stagamancer, posted 04-09-2010 3:10 PM Stagamancer has replied

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 Message 13 by Stagamancer, posted 04-09-2010 8:24 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 14 of 57 (554874)
04-10-2010 4:44 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Stagamancer
04-09-2010 8:24 PM


explanation with useful predictive power
Sorry, Stagamancer and Subbie, but I have trouble with this.
But again, saying any contradictory evidence means the theory is falsified is not true.
To me this says the theory is damaged goods.
Both Quantum Theory and the Theory of Relativity are incomplete, but that doesn't mean that are false.
Forgive me, but this just seems like semantic quibbling. Incomplete means that it is not a complete theory (because it does not explain contrary evidence so we know it is wrong in some way).
When scientists started looking at the quantum level, they found phenomena that contradicted the Theory of Relativity. Plenty of solid evidence has been collected, and we know that Relativity does not completely explain the physical properties of everything we can observe, but it still has its own positive evidence, and it is still a useful theory.
Curiously, many people here will not be surprised that I consider the Theory of Relativity to be damaged goods, but that is a topic for another thread.
What you are really saying is that you know the theory is not true in some areas, but you use it anyway because it can make some useful predictions in other areas (you just need to stay away from areas where it doesn't work). What you have done is adjust the theory to restrict it to the area/s where there are no known contradictions.
This is like using Newton's gravity theory to launch probes to Mars and the other planets - it can make useful predictions within a subset of reality, in a restricted area of application.
So one of the requirements of a useful scientific theory is that it provide predictive power in specified areas, and that within that specified area there are no anomalous or contradictions ... or that the anomalies are known and empirical adjustments are factored in to the predictions.
Certainly I hope you are not claiming that these incomplete theories can make useful predictions in areas where we know they break down.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Stagamancer, posted 04-09-2010 8:24 PM Stagamancer has replied

Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 41 of 57 (556303)
04-18-2010 11:08 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by kbertsche
04-18-2010 10:57 PM


Hi kertsche, nice article.
In everyday usage the question Why? can be either about the mechanism by which something occurred or about the reasons for or purposes behind an action. Thus the distinction between reason and mechanism, or between effect and purpose, is often blurred. Religion and philosophy are interested in reasons and purposes, but science cares only about mechanisms.
The difference between "how" and "why" ... (where have I seen that before).
The use of a broad theoretical framework within which each hypothesis must fit, and that gets refined by each test, is generally lacking in the textbook account.
We could also say that science is an approximation of reality, and that each refinement brings us closer.
But science doesn't just look at what is true, it also shows concepts that cannot be true because of the contrary evidence. Sometimes what cannot be true is as/more important than what can be true.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


• • • Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) • • •

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by kbertsche, posted 04-18-2010 10:57 PM kbertsche has seen this message but not replied

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