this is the only one I have trouble with............

The coin thing reminds me of that Statistics 101 question:You toss a coin ten times and it comes up heads all ten times. Is the eleventh toss more likely to be:1) A head.
2) A tail.
3) 50/50 chance of heads or tails.(Answer Below)-NeilAnswer: 1) A head.[This message has been edited by NeilUnreal, 05-19-2003]

Crashfrog re. coin: bullseye!Part of the purpose of the example is to show how easy it is to let unsupported assumptions pass into statistical test design.-Neil[This message has been edited by NeilUnreal, 05-21-2003]

You gflorb a zbotnik ten times and it ziffles all ten times. Is the eleventh gflorb more likely to be:1) A ziffle.
2) An anti-ziffle.
3) 50/50 chance of a ziffle or an anti-ziffle.(Answer Below)-NeilAnswer: 1) A ziffle.

(Can you tell I was raised on Mad Magazines of the classic era? )

quote:

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Mike: Predictions? If we perform an experiment N times, with a probability M of a particular outcome...

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The point of the example vis-a-vis the current topic (the big bang), is: how do we determine M? There are two ways, theoretical and experiential (and combinations thereof).M might be 1 (doubtful); or it might be 0 (like the ID folks presume); or it might be really, really close to 0. We may know the answer someday, or we may not. Physicists and cosomologists have a lot of heavy lifting to do. (But they're a bright bunch!)-Neil[This message has been edited by NeilUnreal, 05-25-2003]