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The problem is that evolution, regardless of stripe or flavor, demands that we stand everything we know about probability theory on its head and believe that, whenever any sort of a question of the theories of Chuck Darwin of Steve Gould come up, the laws of probability get stood on their heads and reversed.
What training do you have in probability and math? You seem to have trouble applying probabilistic models to real life occurences. Assuming you know poker, imagine if I had to be dealt a flush (in five cards) in order to go to the next round. Any flush will do. After numerous deals, I get a 3, 5, 7, 8, and Queen of clubs. Aha, I pass to the next round. But someone in the background yells "Cheater!". They claim that the odds of me being dealt that exact hand are astronomical, so I had to be cheating.
So lets step back. All I needed was to be dealt a flush. However, the person yelling "cheater" misconstrued this and claimed that I won with an impossible hand by pointing to the impossibility of getting a 3, 5, 7, 8, and queen of clubs. With beneficial mutations, there are several possible mutations that will result in an increase in fitness. Therefore, before assigning probabilities, you must first show every possible beneficial mutation with respect to the environment, just like the person yelling "cheater" should have used the probability of any flush instead of a precise hand.
Let's further this analogy. I am now in the second round. What I need to advance is a straight (not a straight flush mind you). After severl deals, I end up with a hand of 3C, 4H, 5C, 6S, 7D. Again, the person in the back yells "Cheater!". This time he claims that it is impossible to get a flush and then a straight in two hands. Of course, he is ignoring all of the "misses" and the number of deals that preceded each winning hand. Not only that, but again he cites the very low probability of being given 3C, 4H, 5C, 6S, 7D. The odds of this happening are 1/52*51*50*49*48, for just one of the hands. Multiply the odds of me getting both hands and you get 1:97,266,140,375,040,000 or 1 in about 1*10
17. Pretty poor odds, but what is missing is that I only needed a flush (much easier to get) and then a straight (much easier to get). You are doing the same thing, saying that ONLY THAT MUTATION could have lead to what we see today. And, that all of these mutations had to happen at the same time. This is not what evolution states, no matter how many times you say it. Evolution is the accretion, or the building up, of beneficial mutations. Just like the flush got me to the next round (any flush), so will a beneficial mutation. That mutation will become entrenched in the population until it no longer offers a benefice, such as a change in environment.
So, for you to claim that the probability is to high for a certain organism to evolve, you must show us every single possible beneficial mutation (whether they happened or not). You must then show us how the current mutation rate in that organism can not account for the beneficial mutations that it does have. Of course, the hardest part is figuring out every possible beneficial mutation, but since you claim that it is impossible you must already know.