Zephyr
I'd say the war "ended" when large scale hostilities were stopped. It's a bit fuzzy of course. But there is a difference between the March and April and since then.
However, the prediction still has to be tested on a number of grounds. One is, as you suggest, when it was made. Another is how many were made. If 3 out of 5 made are hits that's interesting and worth more testing. If 3 out of 300 then it's more likely just coincidence.