Method of Madness: post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias.

Not everyone, but close.A lot of Christians like Hitler, the infamous Dr. Scott or Jerry Falwell will, IMHO, be SOL. Folk like Judge Moore and liars like Hovind, Wyatt and such have no chance of salvation.But when it comes to heaven I imagine there will be a whole bunch of Atheists getting right in while a long line of Christians get sent to the back of the bus.But as you say, that's only my humble opinion. Your mileage may vary.

---

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

Thank you for admitting that this is your subjective opinion and not grounded in what the Bible says.Thank you for also giving me a personal encounter to serve as a good example of a religious person adding in their own subjectivity and becoming divorced from the religion's original beliefs. This discussion belongs in the radicalism in religion thread. Because YOU lean to the liberal left, you have shaped your Christian beliefs to fit your liberal ideals regardless of what the Christian scriptures say. WOW! I cannot imagine a more subjective statement!

quote:

---

Yet again you reveal that you are against God, even though you claim to think objectively about the matter and "doubt your doubting".

---

I am a doubter.That also makes me a thinker and a searcher and a "trying to figure it out-er"If your claims about God don't pass the logic test, then I'm not likely to get your version of God.I can't be against something if I don't know if it exists or not.I am puzzled and disturbed by certain specificconcepts and notions of the nature of God that you have put forward as true, and these are what we are discussing.

quote:

---

I was explaining your question, not even attempting to PROVE God's existence, yet you turn it around to try to negate His existence. Shraf, you are incapable of having an objective thought about God since every fiber of your being is against him.

---

Unless I am quite mistaken, I have been entirely objective during our discussion.You have made specific claims about the nature of God, yet these claims seem to be contradicted by events which occur. I am merely asking how it is that you reconcile this view you have of God and what He does contrasted against how the world seems to work.So far, your explanations have not been very strong logically, and now you are getting frustrated with me for continuing to press my point.

quote:

---

With such impenatrable arrogance you can never know God.

---

Hey, you are the one who says he knows the nature of God....except that you also say that nobody can know why God does anything.What am I to believe when you send me such mixes messages?Isn't it me who should be frustrated with you?

quote:

---

I said the reason for BELIEVER's suffering is either blessing or discipline and ultimately edification in this life OR THE NEXT. The little girl didn't get that far IN THIS LIFE. HOWEVER, she will be blessed greatly in eternity.

---

OK, if you say so, but I still do not understand why God put her on the planet in the first place.

quote:

---

Nothing to do with God makes any sense to you because you have rejected him.

---

Nice attempted dodge, but please answer the question;Can you know the reasons for God's actions or can't you?You have claimed both, and that's what doesn't make sense.

quote:

---

A simple decision to accept him instead of fight him, and you will be amazed at how the pieces of the puzzle fall into place and things WILL make sense, even to your critical mind. But you could never do this. As long as you think you are something when you are nothing, you will remain as you are, arrogant and condemned.

---

Yes, the rhetoric of fear to gain converts, I know it well.Less preaching and threatening and more rational discussion would be much appreciated.

quote:

---

I said that we cannot know ((((ALL)))) of God's reasons. We know in part (what he has told us in His word) and after we are with God in heaven we will know fully.

---

How do you know you are right?I mean, how do you know you aren't just crediting God for all the good things that happen and then not crediting him for all the bad things that happen to you?

quote:

---

God is not bound by anything except his own character.

---

Interesting.I have not ever heard a Christian say that God is bound by anything, even His character.

quote:

---

If he wants to give us free-will so we can see for ourselves which is better, humility or arrogance, then so be it.

---

If God controlls everything at all times, He is causing me to doubt His existence.He must be causing it because He is the cause of everything.Right?

quote:

---

My claims about God's nature and character are founded on the principles from God's Word, therefore they are not human in origin.

---

The writers of the Bible weren't human?The Apostles weren't human?You aren't human?

quote:

---

Yes, you are right. And I am definately not offended! I almost erased that whole line after I wrote it, but went on with it anyways because I was late for work and didn't give it enough thought... my bad! My apologies Schraf.

---

Don't worry, I'm not that easily offended.Apology accepted.(Thanks mike!

quote:

---

Because YOU lean to the liberal left, you have shaped your Christian beliefs to fit your liberal ideals regardless of what the Christian scriptures say.

---

The Jesus depicted in the Bible was a completely radical liberal hippie-type.

Shraf, if I am frustrated, it is because you keep ignoring what I have said, do not rebut MY arguments, but keep repeating your own as if they get stronger every time you repeat them; and then you make me repeat mine because it sounds like you have compeltely ignored them.I explained to you several posts ago how God's Justice is maintained. You have not pointed out to me any logical fallicies in my arguments, but only repeated your own. GOD has communicated to us through His WORD which was written by MEN through the inspiration of the HOLY SPIRIT that his essence or character includes justice, righteousness, love, sovereignty, omnipotence, omnipresence, omniscience, immutability, veracity, eternal life, etc.AGAIN you have ignored that I said we cannot know ((((((ALL)))))) of the whys. God tells us a great deal in his WORD. "Now we know IN PART, then we shall know FULLY even as we are fully known." I most certainly did not say nobody can know why God does anything. This is a lie. Can you not understand how we can know PART of something, but not all? I know SOME things about how my computer works, but not all. I know some things about how and why my car works, but not all. I know some things about how and why people work, but not all. I know some things about how and why God works, but not all.I'm sorry, but I've grown tired of these useless arguments.
Thank you for making me think a little. Good night.

quote:

---

I explained to you several posts ago how God's Justice is maintained. You have not pointed out to me any logical fallicies in my arguments, but only repeated your own.

---

...except that you have never addressed the logical contradictions at all.You just say things like "no, it isn't revenge" without explaining how it isn't, even though I specifically asked you to explain.You just say things like "I understand the reasons God does what He does", and then you turn around and say "...except when he does things we don't understand."How is this explaining anything?Surely you must admit that this looks an awful lot like post hoc reasoning.

quote:

---

Can you not understand how we can know PART of something, but not all?
I know some things about how and why God works, but not all.

---

Of course I understand that ide.The problem is, you have not explained to me HOW it is you know what you know.Another problem is you have not explained to me is how do you tell what God does and what is random or non-supernatural in origin occurrence without setting up some experimental controls?It seems to me like you are attributing the things you want to to God's doing when it is something good, but shrugging your shoulders when something bad happens.It certainly looks like you have set up an unbeatable system in which you accept only the evidence that reinforces what you already believe is true, and rationalize away any inconsistencies with "We cannot know the ways of God".Can't you see that this looks exactly like confirmation bias and post hoc reasoning?

quote:

---

AGAIN you have ignored that I said we cannot know ((((((ALL)))))) of the whys. God tells us a great deal in his WORD. "Now we know IN PART, then we shall know FULLY even as we are fully known." I most certainly did not say nobody can know why God does anything. This is a lie.

---

It is most certainly not a lie.From your message #156 in this thread: I'd just like to point out that to talk about a God that is the cause of all things "doing something next" is kind of silly, since he is the cause off everything at all times, right? There is no "next thing" beccause he does all things.Anyway, the passage above certainly seems to be saying that humans cannot understand God's purposes. We cannot fathom, we cannot comprehend.You modify this statement somewhat in a later message after I bring up thae above point, and then you say that we can know God's purposes some of the time but not all of the time.But then you go on to say this in a discussion of free will: This seems to mean that we are back to your claim of humans not being able to understand anything at all about God, so it's pointless to discuss it.Sorry, but you have seriously waffled on this issue, and your waffleing has been in direct response to coming up against a sticky moral or logical problem in your theology.Can you not see how this looks very, very much like post hoc reasoning and confimation bias?post hoc fallacy - The Skeptic's Dictionary - Skepdic.com confirmation bias - The Skeptic's Dictionary - Skepdic.com

quote:

---

You have not pointed out to me any logical fallicies in my arguments,

---

Excuse me, but...bullshit.I have quite frequently pointed out your use of post hoc reasoning and confimation bias in nearly every message I've posted to you.Just because you are ignoring these points doesn't make them disappear.I'd be happy to have one of the admins judge this issue if you want a second opinion. It can even be Admin TL if you want a Christian.

quote:

---

but only repeated your own.

---

I am forced to repeat myself because you have yet to substantively address the points I have raised.For example, I asked you specifically how your example of "justice" for the attacker of the 6 year old isn't really revenge, and you ignored that question.

---

Critical thinkers and skeptics don't create answers just to manage their anxiety--Karla McLaren

I clearly said all. We can definately know some. We can know general things that apply to everyone like the doctrine of suffering for blessing or suffering for discipline. But on an individual basis we cannot know ALL, I repeat ((ALL)), of the details of how something in God's plan effects us until we are ressurected. Forgive me if this is sounds vague. I was referring to what God has in store for us in eternity. Then we will be in a body of completely different make-up, and eventually live in a new heaven and new earth. It is impossible to imagine the blessings God has in store for us then because they will be of a totally different nature. No. If I decide to host a party, I am the cause of that party. What goes on at the party is up to the people that come. If they get too out of control, I may intervene and bring things back under control or just kick everyone out. If I force everyone to play my game all night long, then no one is happy. Instead, I let them do what they want, but set boundaries.Can you tell me HOW he causes things to happen? You assume because he is omnipotent that he cannot restrain himself. By giving us free-will he is voluntarily restraining his own. He is not willing that any should perish, but he voluntarily restrains his will so that human history continues to operate under free-will.Jesus Christ was God and man in the same person. But Christ never used his divinity to solve his own problems. He voluntarily restrained his divine omnipotence and lived as any normal person would live in order to "author and perfect our faith". He designed tested and proved the spiritual life that believers have. I think I've made it crystal clear that we cannot fathom ALL, but we can fathom SOME. We cannot comprehend the great things God has in store for us IN ETERNITY because they are of a totally different nature. I will repeat the verse ONE more time: Now we know in part, then we shall know fully.I don't know what is so hard to understand about this. No. I'm saying that human arguments and human logic, which are based on human presuppositions about God are pointless. Logic based on presuppositions about God found in the Bible can be fruitful.Your presuppositions box God in. I am saying God is only bound by his character. When you deny God the ability to do something like give us free-will, and deny him the ability to restrain himself, you are denying his omnipotence and sovereignty. Remember my argument about how God's justice is maintained? How from the human/time perspective injustice vanishes in light of eternity? I gave you the mathematical equation of a limit. I also explained how from God's perspective where time doesn't matter, it does not matter whether he brings justice at the middle beginning or end of human history. His justice IS. I have not heard you mention anything to do with these two arguments. Instead you just keep coming back and repeating: God, if he exists, is unfair because bad things happen. THIS is post-hoc reasoning. Also, bad things happening = no good God. This is confirmation bias. This is understandable coming from you since you do not understand God's omnipotence. This time PLEASE put some effort in trying to understand what I said above about God's omnipotence.Where is my post-hoc and confirmation bias in these two arguments about God's justice??? The first time I did ignore it, because I thought it somewhat off track. The second time you pressed it, I gave you a paragraph of explanation on what I meant. Whatever floats your boat. I don't particularly care. Let's remember this is all just for fun. You have certainly made me think about some things and I thank you for that.

I think I have. God the Holy Spirit inspired the human authors of the Bible so that the cannonical scriptures are God's Word. When one studies them in objectivity being guided by the Holy Spirit, one gains knowledge of truth about God and life.In short, I know what I know from the Bible. Well, a miracle is obviously supernatural in origin, but you will probably not get anywhere trying to set up experimental controls and asking God for a miracle to validate himself. As for the rest of the stuff that happens, God delegates some of his sovereignty to us so human history pretty much operates under free will. But God influences our free will through his Word and Satan influences our free will through his doctrines of arrogance. As far as how God works all things together for the good of those who love him... that may or may not be impossible to know. No I said human history is a great power experiment. We can choose God's power through faith, humility, objectivity, and truth. This brings about good. We can choose arrogance and human power which ultimately brings about bad. In this sense it IS God's doing when something is good. Haha.. I didn't set it up. Yes, God's is an unbeatable system. What inconsistencies? Bad things happening is an inconsistency?

I don't have a lot of time right this second, so this will be short...

quote:

---

In short, I know what I know from the Bible.

---

You know that the Bible is true because you believe the Bible is true?

quote:

---

Well, a miracle is obviously supernatural in origin, but you will probably not get anywhere trying to set up experimental controls and asking God for a miracle to validate himself.

---

That's not the kind of experimental controls I am talking about.I am talking about experimental controls upon you, the claimant, to control for confimation bias and post hoc reasoning.I'm not even talking about miracles, but just everyday interventions that you claim God is making in your life.If you pray for something and it happens, you give god the credit, right?The controls would just keep track of the specifics and make sure you didn't cheat and give God credit for something that was close to a hit but not quite, or something that wasn't a hit but you wanted to cheat and explain after the fact how it "really" was, even though it did not fulfill the parameters set up beforehand.The idea isn't to disprove God's answering your prayers.The idea is to determine if praying to God makes your success rate greater than chance would predict.

quote:

---

Haha.. I didn't set it up. Yes, God's is an unbeatable system.

---

You misunderstand.An "unbeatable system" is a reference to constructing an unfalsifiable system that is not amenable to rational inquiry. Since it is unfalsifiable; i.e. there is no situation in which you will ever admit that you could be wrong, the system is unbeatable and therefore irrational and fallacious.Of course, religious faith is, by nature, irrational.

Dude... seriously, read this over again. Carefully.

---

"Egos drone and pose alone, Like black balloons, all banged and blown
On a backwards river the infidels shiver in the stench of belief.
And tell my mama I'm a hundred years late; I'm over the rails and out of the race
The crippled psalms of an age that won't thaw are ringing in my ears"
-Beck

To Dan Carroll:In answer to your confusion, you may wish to read some of my exchanges with Hangdawg13 on the "Lucifer/Satan is...bad?" thread.From my understanding of his/her perspective:Hangdawg13 believes that God/Holy spirit is the ultimate truth that is unchanging, and thus he/she believes that this makes Christianity "objective". Anything that arose from human actions (such as science) is "subjective" in his/her eyes.Now read the quote again and you will realise why it makes perfect sense to Hangdawg13.(Hint: In order to understand his/her argument, you have to think like him/her.)

---

"Respect is like money, it can only be earned. When it is given, it becomes pittance"

Yea!!! That entire argument was not all in vain! God = spiritual truth = God's Word = reality = understood by objective thinking.You may have somewhat misunderstood my stance on science though. There is also physical truth just as much as there is spiritual truth.Truth in physical realm = reality = understood to an increasing degree by objective thinking called science.Scientific truth is similar to moral truth.Truth in the moral realm = reality = understood to an increasing degree by objective thinking.The problem is that at any given time the majority of humans are excessively subjective and obscuring the truth. Even the few who mostly remain objective still are sinners and have subjective tendencies which obscures truth. Also, the problem with science is that it's methods of learning are limited to rationalism and empiricism while spirituality's methods of learning are rationalism and empiricism plus faith. Science practiced without those having belief in God or by those who largely ignore God has no faith except in the abilities of the humans themselves and therefore has subjectivity built into it. In this case the scientist's objectivity is dependent on his integrity which is dependent on moral truth which he may or may not believe in.Anyways... I'm saying that there is truth in MANY different categories and objectivity finds it. Respect for God is our anchor to objectivity. Thus, "The Fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom".Maybe this can help you think like me. This message has been edited by Hangdawg13, 06-26-2004 10:55 PM

Thats cool. But when you get time, please reply to my post right above the one you just replied to.I would most like to know where my post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias is in my two arguments that show how God's Justice is maintained as you have not addressed them before.Also, lets get our terms straight: Omnipotent means God is all powerful and can do anything but what violates his own character. Sovereign is what gives God CONTROL over everything.I would like to know why you do not think God being omnipotent cannot delegate some of his sovereignty to his creations so that they may have some sovereignty in the form of free-will for the purpose of blessing those who choose to love him, letting us experience life without him (to weed out any arrogance when perfection comes), and to make his glorious character fully known. I know, I know... I was just being a religious fundie asshole. Sorry. Faith is every bit as legitimate a method of learning as rationalism or empiricism. And just because the foundational principles of Christianity are accepted by faith does not mean the rest does not make sense. Christianity is rational if you accept on faith the founding concepts... but I digress, I should keep this about the topic... You know what... You've inspired me to start my prayer journal up again. Until now I usually only wrote about prayer in my journal when God answered big prayers or in an amazing way. But to prevent me from indulging in post-hoc reasoning and confirmation bias, I am going to start writing down all of my prayer requests every night and their answers. A year from now I'll let you know how it turns out... assuming I still lack a social life and assuming I will not have become tired and disillusioned with atheists.This message has been edited by Hangdawg13, 06-26-2004 11:27 PM