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Author Topic:   When Will The End-Times Be And How Will We Know?
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3419
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 751 of 763 (895052)
06-06-2022 10:23 PM
Reply to: Message 744 by Phat
06-06-2022 3:35 AM


Re: Climate Change Triggers The End Times
so I will publically state what I believe is 85% certain to happen in at least some measure.
So, 85% of at least some. That's 29% better than every biblical prophesy!

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 744 by Phat, posted 06-06-2022 3:35 AM Phat has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 752 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 10:51 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6828
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 752 of 763 (895053)
06-06-2022 10:51 PM
Reply to: Message 751 by Tanypteryx
06-06-2022 10:23 PM


Re: Climate Change Triggers The End Times
I've not been thru the math completely but as far as significant digits I'm wondering if you didn't round the wrong way.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 751 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-06-2022 10:23 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 753 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-06-2022 11:18 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3419
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.2


Message 753 of 763 (895054)
06-06-2022 11:18 PM
Reply to: Message 752 by AZPaul3
06-06-2022 10:51 PM


Re: Climate Change Triggers The End Times
He's doing something the wrong way.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 752 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 10:51 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5176
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 754 of 763 (895174)
06-11-2022 12:19 AM
Reply to: Message 741 by AnswersInGenitals
06-04-2022 6:26 PM


Re: JarThink
Sorry, dwise1. Just because you fail to see candle2's mathematics professor's model doesn't mean he doesn't have one.
I think what is going on with the_wickless_one is that he has no clue what that prof was trying to demonstrate:
If you have the probabilities of n independent events (P1, P2, ... , Pn), then the probability of all of those events would be the product of the events' probabilities (ie, P = P1 × P2 × ... × Pn). And of course if each event's probability is the same as all the others', then you raise that probability to the power of the number of events: P = Pin .
I seem to recall that's called a joint probability, but it's been four decades so I don't quite remember the terminology.
For example:
The probability of getting tails in a single flip of a fair coin is ½ (0.5). The probability of getting tails 10 times in a row would be 0.510 = 0.0009765625 -- 1/1024.
The probability of rolling a 4 on a single-sided die is one in six, ⅙ = 0.1667. The probability of rolling a 4 ten times in a row is (⅙)10 = 1.6538 × 10-8.
So the prof's point would not have been how probable it would be for a prediction to be fulfilled, but rather how the probability of multiple predictions all coming true shrinks rapidly as the number of those predictions increase.
A realistic math model for arriving at the probability of a single prediction would be extremely difficult to construct. Therefore, I have no doubt that the prof just pulled a number out of his ... hat. That is a perfectly valid thing to do when you are just trying to demonstrate the effects of multiple events.
However, a probability of about 1/133 seems to be far too high for such an event. It would make sense for him to have a favorite magic number (like 42 for those of my generation -- Share and enjoy!). Perhaps that find structure constant is his favorite magic number.
Of course, that completely begs the other question of whether those "prophecies" even qualify as legitimate prophecies. Or even qualify as having been legitimately fulfilled and not just faked -- eg, my successful prediction of last Saturday's lottery numbers would only count if I had written them down before last Saturday's draw and not the day after.
Aron Ra discusses this in his YouTube video, Unfulfilling Prophecy , which I so generously embedded in my Message 731 for wickless' benefit.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 741 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 06-04-2022 6:26 PM AnswersInGenitals has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 755 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 06-11-2022 12:46 PM dwise1 has replied

  
AnswersInGenitals
Member
Posts: 672
Joined: 07-20-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


(1)
Message 755 of 763 (895178)
06-11-2022 12:46 PM
Reply to: Message 754 by dwise1
06-11-2022 12:19 AM


Re: JarThink
I seem to recall that's called a joint probability, but it's been four decades so I don't quite remember the terminology.
It's been almost six decades since I studied statistics, but I remember everything I learned because I have perfect recall. In fact, I can't think of a single thing that I've forgotten.
But, the key thing that you are leaving out of your analysis is conditional probability for which you have to apply Bayesian statistics. So, in the case you consider of trying to roll a 4 with a six sided die, the probability of getting a 4 is indeed 1/6 ~ 0.16667 if you are an atheist. However, if you are a devout Christian, like candle2, and you add the condition of sincere prayer you can raise the probability to as high as 0.7346. The power of prayer has a multiplicative factor of 1 to 46378 (depending on which god you pray to). If you are an Ancient Greek and pray to the demigoddess Diana, you can only raise the odds to 0.1669 since Diana, being a demigoddess, has limited powers. However, if you are an Ancient Greek, then your are dead and those odds of rolling preferred numbers on dice is the least of your worries. These are all true facts. You can look them up. The real question here is why are you letting some ignorant schmuck take up any of your time! (I'm referring to candle2, not myself.)

Edited by AnswersInGenitals, .


This message is a reply to:
 Message 754 by dwise1, posted 06-11-2022 12:19 AM dwise1 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 756 by dwise1, posted 06-16-2022 12:38 PM AnswersInGenitals has replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5176
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 756 of 763 (895236)
06-16-2022 12:38 PM
Reply to: Message 755 by AnswersInGenitals
06-11-2022 12:46 PM


Re: JarThink
So, in the case you consider of trying to roll a 4 with a six sided die, the probability of getting a 4 is indeed 1/6 ~ 0.16667 if you are an atheist. However, if you are a devout Christian, like candle2, and you add the condition of sincere prayer you can raise the probability to as high as 0.7346. The power of prayer has a multiplicative factor of 1 to 46378 (depending on which god you pray to).
So in other words, theists insist that they are playing with loaded dice, so normal math no longer applies.
This is also one of the reasons why mixing gods with science doesn't work. What science discovers must hold true regardless of one's gods. If you mix certain chemicals together under a certain set of conditions, then the resultant reaction(s) must not depend on which god you offered which particular prayer (up to and most definitely including the "correct" sect's prescribed number of fingers to be used in that invocation's prescribed hand gesture -- see Раскол). IOW, when you bake a cake, it should not depend on your gods. But once you insist on including gods and religious intervention into science, you screw everything up. Science sees that there are things in the physical universe that we can depend on; religion insists that the universe is chaotic, inconsistent, and capricious.
The real question here is why are you letting some ignorant schmuck take up any of your time! (I'm referring to candle2, not myself.)
Because he is typical and even archetypical of "true Christians". Dishonest hypocrites who know no lie too audacious nor dirty trick too low and underhanded to ever pass up.
He has done nothing here except to spout one lie after another and to do everything possible to avoid any and all attempts at discussion. There are still so many questions that he has yet to answer, including why he claims that trace C-14 recently formed in subterranean formations through local radiation sources is supposed to have anything to do with radiocarbon dating methods which only uses atmospheric C-14.
He needs to stop running away and start to engage in discussion. Of course, his evil theology will not allow that.
 
ABE:
IOW, we need to urge candle2, eWolf, Mike-the-Whizzer, etc, to become honest.
Since all the evidence we have observed demonstrates conclusively that there is no such thing as an honest creationist, then we have almost no hope of succees. But we must still make the effort nonetheless.
It's been said that one should not try to teach a pig to sing: you will never succeed and, beside, it annoys the pig.
It has also been said that sometimes annoying the pig is the objective of that evolution.

Edited by dwise1, : ABE


This message is a reply to:
 Message 755 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 06-11-2022 12:46 PM AnswersInGenitals has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 757 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 06-17-2022 12:50 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
AnswersInGenitals
Member
Posts: 672
Joined: 07-20-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 757 of 763 (895246)
06-17-2022 12:50 PM
Reply to: Message 756 by dwise1
06-16-2022 12:38 PM


Re: JarThink
This is also one of the reasons why mixing gods with science doesn't work. What science discovers must hold true regardless of one's gods. If you mix certain chemicals together under a certain set of conditions, then the resultant reaction(s) must not depend on which god you offered which particular prayer
Then how do you explain the well documented transmogrification of wheat/wine to flesh/blood during the Eucharist?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 756 by dwise1, posted 06-16-2022 12:38 PM dwise1 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 758 by Greatest I am, posted 06-17-2022 5:14 PM AnswersInGenitals has not replied

  
Greatest I am
Member
Posts: 1533
Joined: 01-24-2007


Message 758 of 763 (895247)
06-17-2022 5:14 PM
Reply to: Message 757 by AnswersInGenitals
06-17-2022 12:50 PM


Re: JarThink
AnswersInGenitals
Love the name.
The reply does not seem to go with it.
Care to share some of that documentation?
Regards
DL

This message is a reply to:
 Message 757 by AnswersInGenitals, posted 06-17-2022 12:50 PM AnswersInGenitals has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 759 by AZPaul3, posted 06-17-2022 7:35 PM Greatest I am has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6828
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 759 of 763 (895248)
06-17-2022 7:35 PM
Reply to: Message 758 by Greatest I am
06-17-2022 5:14 PM


Re: JarThink
Ask any priest. They will quote you chapter and verse as well as provide copious documents come down through church history on the majik the liturgy invokes.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 758 by Greatest I am, posted 06-17-2022 5:14 PM Greatest I am has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 760 by dwise1, posted 06-17-2022 8:00 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5176
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 760 of 763 (895249)
06-17-2022 8:00 PM
Reply to: Message 759 by AZPaul3
06-17-2022 7:35 PM


Re: JarThink
A good quote I heard which I cannot verify because Hulu won't let me view past episodes of The Orville:
quote
"Religion is so confusing and hard to understand."
"That's how priests stay in business."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 759 by AZPaul3, posted 06-17-2022 7:35 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 761 by NosyNed, posted 06-17-2022 8:25 PM dwise1 has replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8971
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 761 of 763 (895250)
06-17-2022 8:25 PM
Reply to: Message 760 by dwise1
06-17-2022 8:00 PM


Quote
Do you have an idea of the episode. I have them all

This message is a reply to:
 Message 760 by dwise1, posted 06-17-2022 8:00 PM dwise1 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 762 by dwise1, posted 06-18-2022 2:07 AM NosyNed has replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5176
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 762 of 763 (895252)
06-18-2022 2:07 AM
Reply to: Message 761 by NosyNed
06-17-2022 8:25 PM


Re: Quote
Season 3, Episode 2, "Shadow Realms", dropped on Hulu on June 9, 2022:
quote
As the crew of the Orville undergoes diplomatic negotiations with the Krill to access a previously unknown region of space, Claire reunites with her ex-husband Vice Admiral Paul Christie, who happens to be her former mentor and the chief diplomat assigned to their mission. Meanwhile, despite warnings from the Krill, the crew undertake an exploration mission in the uncharted Kalarr Expanse that is supposedly inhabited by demons. During their exploration, the Orville encounters a giant, seemingly abandoned space station. Paul is infected by spores, which causes him to mutate into an alien creature that infects several of the other crew by altering their DNA. Claire and the crew manage to force the former Paul and the other mutated crew to leave by threatening to release a synthetic virus. Following the showdown, Claire and Isaac begin repairing their relationship.
For some reason, Hulu will only let me rewatch the third episode.
The scene is where they are discussing the Krill's warnings of demons, CAPT Mercer says that he'd tried to study the Krill religion but found it confusing, to which VADM Christie marked that up to job security for priests.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 761 by NosyNed, posted 06-17-2022 8:25 PM NosyNed has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 763 by NosyNed, posted 06-20-2022 9:19 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8971
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 763 of 763 (895281)
06-20-2022 9:19 AM
Reply to: Message 762 by dwise1
06-18-2022 2:07 AM


There in about an hour

This message is a reply to:
 Message 762 by dwise1, posted 06-18-2022 2:07 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
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