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Member (Idle past 1661 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
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Author | Topic: the old improbable probability problem | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1661 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined:
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We see them over and over .... this or that could not possibly have happened because the improbability is just too great.
Usually these are based on very restrictive "all-at-once-out-of-nothing" linear calculations where the errors involved are multifold and pervasive:
This message has been edited by RAZD, 09-09-2004 12:02 AM This message has been edited by RAZD, 01-03-2005 21:01 AM Edited by RAZD, : fixed font problem in smorgasbord we are limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share.
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Adminnemooseus Inactive Administrator |
Thread moved here from the Proposed New Topics forum.
{Edited to add "signature".} [This message has been edited by Adminnemooseus, 04-14-2004] WHERE TO GO TO START A NEW TOPIC (For other than "Welcome, Visitors!", "Suggestions and Questions", "Practice Makes Perfect", and "Short Subjects") Comments on moderation procedures? - Go to
Change in Moderation? or too fast closure of threads |
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1.61803 Member (Idle past 1760 days) Posts: 2928 From: Lone Star State USA Joined: |
I seemed to remember reading somewhere that on a quantum level a event can take place that would be by all rational considerations seem impossible. Rules are broken, all bets are off. No sooner does someone say something can not be done ..and boom it happens. I appears to me that God allows for gambling in this big Cosmic Casino (even if Mr. Einstien did not agree.)IMO. *edit to add: I think that God if he exist is sometimes surprized.
[This message has been edited by 1.61803, 04-14-2004] "One is punished most for ones virtues" Fredrick Neitzche
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Stipes Inactive Member |
Then why teach probability? To me it seems like a wasted unit in my math class. Sorry, a little off topic.
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 123 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
Stipes writes:
Because it is helpful in many situations. It is especially very helpful in genetics. Say that if a woman has trisomy 21, the chance of having a normal child for her is 50%. Very helpful to know. Then why teach probability? To me it seems like a wasted unit in my math class. Sorry, a little off topic. The Laminator
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crashfrog Member (Idle past 1723 days) Posts: 19762 From: Silver Spring, MD Joined: |
To me it seems like a wasted unit in my math class. I think that statistics is the most useful thing you could ever learn in high school, and I'll tell you why. Can you think of any other mathematics that is used so often to influence public policy? Mark Twain once said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." With the way statistics are bandied about by politicians - usually erroneously - I don't see how one could truly be a full-fledged participant in democracy without an ability to sort good statistical reasoning from bad.
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Loudmouth Inactive Member |
quote: Agreed. My favorite is the anti-drug ad that states "30% of wreckless drivers test positive for marijuana" giving the impression that those who test positived are stoned. Actually, 30% smoked pot within the last 2 weeks. Even better are the new stats here in the States showing that unemployment claims are on the downturn. What they don't show is the number of people that are unemployed but either no longer qualify for unemployment or have given up on the system. My other favorite misuse of stats is drunken driving. If 30% of accidents are caused by drunken drivers, aren't sober drivers more dangerous since they make up the other 70%? This message has been edited by Loudmouth, 05-11-2004 10:02 PM
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jar Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 34140 From: Texas!! Joined:
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was in the Savannah, Georgia newspaper. It proudly proclaimed that car thefts had been reduced 200%.
I bet folk were coming out their doors in the morning to find that thieves had once again left a car in their driveway over night. Aslan is not a Tame Lion
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Darwin Storm Inactive Member |
Probability and statistics are the root of quantum mechanics. The wavefunction can be solved to give probablilities, not exact solutions. However, the probablities it gives are EXTREMELY accurate.
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Parasomnium Member Posts: 2228 Joined: |
My favorite is the anti-drug ad that states "30% of wreckless drivers test positive for marijuana" giving the impression that those who test positived are stoned. Officer to stoned driver: "...and who do you think is going to pay for the damage if you drive like that, young man?"Stoned driver: "Not to worry officer, I'm a wreckless driver." "It's amazing what you can learn from DNA." - Desdamona.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1661 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
When you talk about the improbability of things you need to know what you are talking about. Your argument is just the "agrument from incredulity" -- just because you cannot see how it could come to be is due to your lack of imagination if anything, a problem that does not hinder the natural world (especially if it has already solved the problem).
Please read the OT on the issue of probability arguments (link below).EvC Forum: the old improbable probability problem ps - the {proposed new topic} is only for setting up new topics and not for discussing them. enjoy we are limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}
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coffee_addict Member (Idle past 123 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
I think you are wasting your time. I think he's one of those hit-and-run people. I would be very impressed if he actually comes back anytime soon and talk about what he started.
The Laminator We are the bog. Resistance is voltage over current.
For goodness's sake, please vote Democrat this November!
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happy_atheist Member (Idle past 5170 days) Posts: 326 Joined: |
crashfrog writes: My other favorite misuse of stats is drunken driving. If 30% of accidents are caused by drunken drivers, aren't sober drivers more dangerous since they make up the other 70%? Only if there are a comparable number of drunk drivers to sober drivers. The statistic is a bit meaningless as it is, but I would imagine that sober drivers outweigh drunken drivers by more than 3:1. If this is the case, then you have a small number of drunk drivers causing a disproportionate number of the accidents.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1661 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
or a child.
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nator Member (Idle past 2426 days) Posts: 12961 From: Ann Arbor Joined: |
quote: Absolutely. For example, the reports that recent polls that showed the Bush got an 11 point lead over Kerry... Well, first of all, out of 8 polls, only two polls showed that. The rest had a much smaller lead, or showed Kerry ahead of Bush. Now, the deal with the high polls is that those two particular news sources didn't correct for bias in their samples, which is what all the major polling companies do.
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