the old improbable probability problem

We see them over and over .... this or that could not possibly have happened because the improbability is just too great.Usually these are based on very restrictive "all-at-once-out-of-nothing" linear calculations where the errors involved are multifold and pervasive:

1. The calculation is a mathematical model of reality and not the reality itself. When a model fails to replicate reality it is not reality that is at fault but the mathematical model. When a hurricane prediction program crashes because it can't model the first hurricane in the South Atlantic on record, the meteorologists don't go out to the hurricane and say "you can't be here, our model does not allow you to be here" ... they fix the model by looking for and taking out the failed assumptions (ie - that all hurricanes are north of the equator). When a model fails to model reality it is a good indication that some aspect of reality has been missed in the model.
   ​
2. The calculation fails to account for the known pre-existing molecules used in the formation of life that are found throughout the universe, and this failure means the calculation with creation-all-at-once including these molecules is unnecessarily extended downward, starting with too much simplicity.
   ​
3. The calculation fails to account for the fact that the first life need not be as complicated as a modern cell, that the minimum configuration is much simpler as shown by the LUCA studies. This failure means that the calculation is unnecessarily extended upward, ending with too much complexity.
   ​
4. The calculation fails to account for combinations of groups of such molecules in smorgasbord fashion instead of in assembly line fashion all at once all from nothing. And further, that all those "failed" experiments are still available to be cut and reassembled into new experiments without having to go through all the preliminaries. It fails to account for actual combination process as used in natural assembly of large organic compounds. Amino acids are assembled into larger molecules like peptides and not from extending amino acids by adding atoms. This failure means that all the ways to reach the final necessary combination are not included and thus it unnecessarily excludes possible combination methods.
   ​
5. The probability of winning a lottery by any one ticket is extremely low, but the probability that the lottery will be won is extremely high. How do you reconcile these two very disparate probabilities? By knowing that any one of the millions of tickets is a valid winner if picked. To show that this is not the case for the calculations mentioned (ie -- in order to say "1 out of") you have to show that no other combination works of all the other probabilities. There are several different known forms of hemoglobin, all of which do the job of transporting oxygen in the blood, and thus the probability is high that there are other versions that will work as well. Scientists have also manipulated an organism successfully to make it produce an unnatural amino acid, one that does not occur naturally, thus demonstrating that there are other "solutions" than the ones that happen to be used in life as we know it. It could well be that 1 in a million "solutions" of the possible combinations would work, and that the probability would then reduce to 1 in 10⁶. This calculation has not been done and is not included, unnecessarily excluding possible solutions from the probability calculation.
   ​
6. Finally, the improbability of a thing occurring is not proof of impossibility of it occurring. It could well be that this is the only planet in all the universe that has life on it because it is a very improbably event. And if you divide the surface of the planet into all the different types of environments and do the same for all the other planets and moons and asteroids in the solar system alone you will have billionsXbillions of little experimental crucibles for carrying out experiments and if that is carried out over several billion year periods (4.55 billion year old earth, in a 13.7+ billion year old universe) with multiple "experiments" in a {day?hour?minute?} ... billionsXbillions of time periods, and do the same for all the billionsXbillions of stellar systems throughout the universe it does not take long to create an equally mind boggling number that reduces improbability down towards a definite probability. I'm at 10⁵⁴ possiblities already on this one aspect alone ... and for a 1 in 10⁶ chance that looks pretty good.

Anyone care to play?This message has been edited by RAZD, 09-09-2004 12:02 AMThis message has been edited by RAZD, 01-03-2005 21:01 AMEdited by RAZD, : fixed font problem in smorgasbord

---

Join the effort to unravel {AIDS/HIV} {Protenes} and {Cancer} with Team EvC! (click)

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

When you talk about the improbability of things you need to know what you are talking about. Your argument is just the "agrument from incredulity" -- just because you cannot see how it could come to be is due to your lack of imagination if anything, a problem that does not hinder the natural world (especially if it has already solved the problem).Please read the OT on the issue of probability arguments (link below).
EvC Forum: the old improbable probability problemps - the {proposed new topic} is only for setting up new topics and not for discussing them.enjoy

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

or a child.

This is about probability not surveys -- start another thread to discuss that please.For literal lorenWhen you talk about the improbability of things you need to know what you are talking about. Your argument is just the "agrument from incredulity" -- just because you cannot see how it could come to be is due to your lack of imagination if anything, a problem that does not hinder the natural world (especially if it has already solved the problem).Please read the OT on the issue of probability arguments (link below).
EvC Forum: the old improbable probability problemps - the {proposed new topic} is only for setting up new topics and not for discussing them.enjoy

Is there any way to connect old links like this one:http://EvC Forum: the old improbable probability problemwith their new version for the {forum\thread\message}?{abe}
the old link above does not work (board format has changed twince since then) and I have no way of knowing what the original link was to anymore.another post that bears on this issue is one by Jacinto at
EvC Forum: IC challenge: Evolve a bicycle into a motorcycle!
{/abe}This message has been edited by RAZD, 10*02*2005 09:21 AM

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

thanks jar, that works for this thread, but how do I convert all those others I bookmarked?

Like the others here, I have seen a number of these bogus calculations that are nothing more than the argument from incredulity wrapped in math: there is no way they can properly model the probability without understanding the process to the point where it would be evident that we knew how life evolved. Common error #1
Can you calculate the probability of throwing a "7" on a pair of dice when you don't know how many sides are on each di?This is the primary fallacy of these "calculations" that they presume to know that which they do not know. Common error #2
The secondary fallacy of these "calculations" is that they do not calculate the probabilities properly. I'll have to spend a little time and space on this to show the mathematical error involved in these calculations:Let us assume a protein is formed with the pattern
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz
51 bonds between 52 amino acids all in one particular order, where each letter represents one of 20 amino acids, and the resultant calculation by {creationist\IDist\etcist} is that the probability of this forming is
p_m = (1/20)⁵¹ = 4.44E-67 or 1 in 2.25E+66
Your typical "creatortionista" number. But this only calculates one way this molecule can form: this ignores the fact that the bonds in the molecule can be formed in any order and still end up with the same final result.The probability of the first bond forming is not (1/20), because any one of the 51 bonds can form first.To calculate this mathematical probability properly, first we calculate the probability that not one of the bonds forms, and the mathematical probability of this bonding {not} occurring is:
p{NOT}₅₁ = {1-(1/20}⁵¹ = 0.07310 or 1 in 13.7
And this means that the probability of the first bond forming is actually:
p₅₁ = 1-p{NOT}₅₁ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁵¹ = 0.92690 or 1 in 1.079
Almost a sure thing eh?We do the same thing for the next bond, any one of the remaining 50 bonds has the mathematical probability of:
p₅₀ = 1-p{NOT}₅₀ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁵⁰ = 0.92306 or 1 in 1.083
A little less sure, but still a pretty solid likelihood eh? Let's carry on ...
p₄₉ = 1-p{NOT}₄₉ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁹ = 0.9190 or 1 in 1.0881
p₄₈ = 1-p{NOT}₄₈ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁸ = 0.9147 or 1 in 1.0932
p₄₇ = 1-p{NOT}₄₇ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁷ = 0.9103 or 1 in 1.0986
p₄₆ = 1-p{NOT}₄₆ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁶ = 0.9055 or 1 in 1.1043
p₄₅ = 1-p{NOT}₄₅ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁵ = 0.9006 or 1 in 1.1104
p₄₄ = 1-p{NOT}₄₄ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁴ = 0.8953 or 1 in 1.1169
p₄₃ = 1-p{NOT}₄₃ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴³ = 0.8898 or 1 in 1.1238
p₄₂ = 1-p{NOT}₄₂ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴² = 0.8840 or 1 in 1.1312
p₄₁ = 1-p{NOT}₄₁ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴¹ = 0.8779 or 1 in 1.1391
p₄₀ = 1-p{NOT}₄₀ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴⁰ = 0.8715 or 1 in 1.1475
p₃₉ = 1-p{NOT}₃₉ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁹ = 0.8647 or 1 in 1.1564
p₃₈ = 1-p{NOT}₃₈ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁸ = 0.8576 or 1 in 1.1660
p₃₇ = 1-p{NOT}₃₇ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁷ = 0.8501 or 1 in 1.1763
p₃₆ = 1-p{NOT}₃₆ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁶ = 0.8422 or 1 in 1.1873
p₃₅ = 1-p{NOT}₃₅ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁵ = 0.8339 or 1 in 1.1992
p₃₄ = 1-p{NOT}₃₄ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁴ = 0.8252 or 1 in 1.2119
p₃₃ = 1-p{NOT}₃₃ = 1-{1-(1/20}³³ = 0.8160 or 1 in 1.2255
p₃₂ = 1-p{NOT}₃₂ = 1-{1-(1/20}³² = 0.8063 or 1 in 1.2403
p₃₁ = 1-p{NOT}₃₁ = 1-{1-(1/20}³¹ = 0.7961 or 1 in 1.2561
p₃₀ = 1-p{NOT}₃₀ = 1-{1-(1/20}³⁰ = 0.7854 or 1 in 1.2733
p₂₉ = 1-p{NOT}₂₉ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁹ = 0.7741 or 1 in 1.2919
p₂₈ = 1-p{NOT}₂₈ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁸ = 0.7622 or 1 in 1.3120
p₂₇ = 1-p{NOT}₂₇ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁷ = 0.7497 or 1 in 1.3339
p₂₆ = 1-p{NOT}₂₆ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁶ = 0.7365 or 1 in 1.3578
p₂₅ = 1-p{NOT}₂₅ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁵ = 0.7226 or 1 in 1.3839
p₂₄ = 1-p{NOT}₂₄ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁴ = 0.7080 or 1 in 1.4124
p₂₃ = 1-p{NOT}₂₃ = 1-{1-(1/20}²³ = 0.6926 or 1 in 1.4437
p₂₂ = 1-p{NOT}₂₂ = 1-{1-(1/20}²² = 0.6765 or 1 in 1.4783
p₂₁ = 1-p{NOT}₂₁ = 1-{1-(1/20}²¹ = 0.6594 or 1 in 1.5164
p₂₀ = 1-p{NOT}₂₀ = 1-{1-(1/20}²⁰ = 0.6415 or 1 in 1.5588
p₁₉ = 1-p{NOT}₁₉ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁹ = 0.6226 or 1 in 1.6060
p₁₈ = 1-p{NOT}₁₈ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁸ = 0.6028 or 1 in 1.6590
p₁₇ = 1-p{NOT}₁₇ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁷ = 0.5819 or 1 in 1.7186
p₁₆ = 1-p{NOT}₁₆ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁶ = 0.5599 or 1 in 1.7861
p₁₅ = 1-p{NOT}₁₅ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁵ = 0.5367 or 1 in 1.8632
p₁₄ = 1-p{NOT}₁₄ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁴ = 0.5123 or 1 in 1.9519
p₁₃ = 1-p{NOT}₁₃ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹³ = 0.4867 or 1 in 2.0548
p₁₂ = 1-p{NOT}₁₂ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹² = 0.4596 or 1 in 2.1756
p₁₁ = 1-p{NOT}₁₁ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹¹ = 0.4312 or 1 in 2.3191
p₁₀ = 1-p{NOT}₁₀ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹⁰ = 0.4013 or 1 in 2.4921
p₉ = 1-p{NOT}₉ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁹ = 0.3698 or 1 in 2.7045
p₈ = 1-p{NOT}₈ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁸ = 0.3366 or 1 in 2.9711
p₇ = 1-p{NOT}₇ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁷ = 0.3017 or 1 in 3.3150
p₆ = 1-p{NOT}₆ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁶ = 0.2649 or 1 in 3.7749
p₅ = 1-p{NOT}₅ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁵ = 0.2262 or 1 in 4.4205
p₄ = 1-p{NOT}₄ = 1-{1-(1/20}⁴ = 0.1855 or 1 in 5.3910
p₃ = 1-p{NOT}₃ = 1-{1-(1/20}³ = 0.1426 or 1 in 7.0114
p₂ = 1-p{NOT}₂ = 1-{1-(1/20}² = 0.0975 or 1 in 10.2564
p₁ = 1-p{NOT}₁ = 1-{1-(1/20}¹ = 0.0500 or 1 in 20.0000
Notice that the last bond formed is the only one that has the mathematical probability of (1/20). Now to calculate the probability of all 52 amino acids lining up in the above formation with the bonds formed in any order we multiply the probabilities of each of the bonding stages, and we get:p_m = (0.9269)x(0.9231)x(0.9190)x(0.9147)x(0.9103)x(0.9055)
x(0.9006)x(0.8953)x(0.8898)x(0.8840)x(0.8779)x(0.8715)x(0.8647)
x(0.8576)x(0.8501)x(0.8422)x(0.8339)x(0.8252)x(0.8160)x(0.8063)
x(0.7961)x(0.7854)x(0.7741)x(0.7622)x(0.7497)x(0.7365)x(0.7226)
x(0.7080)x(0.6926)x(0.6765)x(0.6594)x(0.6415)x(0.6226)x(0.6028)
x(0.5819)x(0.5599)x(0.5367)x(0.5123)x(0.4867)x(0.4596)x(0.4312)
x(0.4013)x(0.3698)x(0.3366)x(0.3017)x(0.2649)x(0.2262)x(0.1855)
x(0.1426)x(0.0975)x(0.0500) = 5.39E-13
or 1 in 1.85E+12
Which, while still large is significantly "more likely" than 1 in 2.25E+66. In fact it is 1.21E+54 times more likely.And the longer you take these kinds of calculations out the disparity between the "creatortionista" calculation and the real mathematical calculation grows.And this still does not adequately model all the possible ways the molecule could form.For starters, there are only 20 amino acids so those 52 positions have to have some repeats: the likelihood of a certain amino acid forming a "wrong" bond for one location does not mean that it is not "right" for another location, and the more often a certain amino acid is repeated in the whole protein the more this becomes a factor. To properly model this you need to apply it to specific examples.For further possibilities, there are any number of larger molecules that could be formed with "mistake" sections in them, where one or more amino acids are injected into the above sequence during formation, but which are then knocked out (cosmic ray bombardment, copy error, etc) leaving the proper formed molecule. This is not included in the "creatortionista" calculations, it is not even addressed. Common error #3
The third common error in these calculations is the assumption that only one molecule will do the job. There are several forms of the hemoglobin molecule that are all capable of doing the job, as one example of the fallacy of this assumption.This is usually compounded by using a large modern molecule form without any analysis of just how much of it is needed to do the job: perhaps the example above only needs
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
and the other half is a repeat sequence that does the same thing (doubling the effectiveness of the full molecule). This means that the probability of forming the necessary molecule is onlyp_m = (0.7226)x(0.7080)x(0.6926)x(0.6765)x(0.6594)x(0.6415)
x(0.6226)x(0.6028)x(0.5819)x(0.5599)x(0.5367)x(0.5123)x(0.4867)
x(0.4596)x(0.4312)x(0.4013)x(0.3698)x(0.3366)x(0.3017)x(0.2649)
x(0.2262)x(0.1855)x(0.1426)x(0.0975)x(0.0500) = 3.83E-11
or 1 in 2.61E+10
or 71 times more likely to occur, and this kind of repeated sequencing is common on all modern proteins, meaning that ignoring it is making the model intentionally invalid. Typically there is no mention of other possible solutions to say nothing of any analysis to eliminate them as possibilities. Common error #4
The difference between improbable and impossible is vast, no matter what the number calculated actually turns out to be. Life by abiogenesis could indeed be a highly unlikely event on the grand cosmic scale. That scale of improbability does not prevent such an improbable event from happening, and more to the point: once it has happened the probability is irrelevant. You could flip 50 heads in a row the first time: probability does not say when in the course of events the improbable happens. To argue from the existence of life that the "improbability" of it is evidence of miraculous intervention is just a post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy.Math is not evidence for reality. If you have a mathematical model that says something cannot happen when you have evidence around you that it has, the probability is high that the mathematical model is erroneous.Personally I see no reason to give this kind of "calculation" any tidbit of credence at all, there are just too many unknowns involved, and too many conceptual (mathematical and logical) errors in this kind of thinking, for it to hold any validity as any kind of model of reality.Enjoy.ps -- I would like to thank Jacinto for his inspiration on the probability calculationhttp://EvC Forum: IC challenge: Evolve a bicycle into a motorcycle!This message has been edited by RAZD, 10*08*2005 11:19 PM

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

What this means:That the argument from probabilities is invalid as an argument against abiogenesis.What this does NOT mean:That abiogenesis happened (only that it cannot be ruled out by this argument). The only honest answer is that we don't know what the real probability for abiogenesis {was\is}.

---

For further consideration, specific aspects of these failures point to either malicious intent or stupid ability on the part of the person making the argument (imao):As regards the math calculation (#2):If the person making this argument had approached the topic with honest open and intelligent intent there is no excuse for the math being wrong unless the person is too stupid to understand the proper application: this information is available to study for anyone with a high school level of math.The other option is that the person doesn't care about getting the math right but only about making the picture look as impossible as possible: they are willing to lie to make the argument seem more valid than it is.As regards the evaluation of possibilities (#1 & #3):Failure to adequately discuss this means that there is a misunderstanding of what probability calculations entail. You have to know all the possible outcomes and all the succesful ones to calculate the {success} probabilities. Anything else is just an assumption made on a lack of data, and when you have to make an assumption in the data then you have to assume a probability that the assumption is correct.Again, this information is readily available to anyone interested in learning how to do probability calculations -- if the person making this argument has approached the topic with honest open and intelligent intent.The person making the argument is either too stupid to make this evaluation or they are intentionally leaving it out to make the the picture look as impossible as possible: they are willing to lie to make the argument seem more valid than it is. On a personal note I think that anyone who publishes a book with this kind of invalid calculation in it, and who has not gone to the effort to validate the calculation by an outside source cognizant of the math involved is someone who is willing to misrepresent the truth in order to sell their {program\book\etcetera}. They are not a source that can be trusted to provide factual information.As regards the impossiblity of improbabilities (#4):Divide any "calculated improbability" you like by zero and the result is infinity.That is the difference between improbable and impossible.And that is why, even if the numbers are incredible, that abiogenesis cannot be ruled out.This message has been edited by RAZD, 10*08*2005 05:07 PMThis message has been edited by RAZD, 11*07*2005 09:16 PM

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

cutecouldn't you overstate the probability by deducting an order of magnetude for each one? (just to be on the "safe" side)10⁹³ x 10⁹² x 10⁹¹ x 10⁹⁰= 1 x 10³⁶⁶

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

{edited, now that I know who the "author" really is}Welcome to the fray on this board Mirabile_Auditu\SpiderMBAWe don't hold newbies toes to the fire ... too much ... at the start. But you are no newbie. I expect you to play by the rules of this board -- if you can.Now one of the little sticky points: this thread is in the science section, and what this means is that you {are\will be} held to a level of logic and rational thought consistent with all science and can be asked to substantiate any assertion you make. With this in mind you need to be careful to make assertions you can substantiate rather than just post wild opinions based on personal incredulity.Let's have a go eh? This is an ad hominem attack on the messanger and doesn't address the message. What this means is that it is logically invalid and amounts to a null response: you would have been better saying nothing.It includes a groundless assumption that all people that don't have your opinion are godless, another logical fallacy. This is one of those all {A} is not {B}
not {B} exists
therefore {A}
logical fallacies as there is no reason for all not {B} to be {A} at all - it can be anything else.Two logical fallacies in the first statement: a twofer. Another ad hominem attack on the messanger and it still doesn't address the message. Yawn. Note that this is off the topic of probability, so if you want to continue this question we can move it to another thread (there should be one that discusses early life forms and what they likely were like). I will answer for now though:You left out "virtually" -- when you state things like "always hearing from Darwinists" I suspect you are probably quoting a creatortionista site that misrepresents evolution -- and it makes a world of difference. There are many changes in the DNA of most modern bacteria and virus from even just a few years ago, only a few exhibit the characteristics that lead some scientists to think they are similar enough to their early forms to provide insight to that distant past. But even they are not unchanged.One explanation for viruses is that they are a remnant of an earlier form of life that was dependant on RNA instead of DNA, and there are several other hypothesis in the field of abiogenesis (the "beginning of life" science). What this shows, is that your assertion "nobody has provided anything remotely resembling an explanation" is false, and thus any opinion you have based on that false position is also false.What is "primitive" about one of the most successful life forms on earth? The structure of the cell can vary from simple to as complex as the cells in our bodies: what distinguishes "primitive" at this level? What distinguishes it at the level of the DNA? Yawners. Usupported assertion after unsupported assertion. Also at odds with reality. The theories of evolution have been tested and tested and tested, and so far the best theory on the books is still evolution: change in species over time. This has been observed to such a level that even AiG says it occurs.You said "statistically unsupportable" and I can now ask you for the precise calculations and the assumptions that go into that calculation: it is now your job to post those. The other option is for you to agree that you do not have that calculation done and withdrawn the comment (and don't use it again without providing substantiation). I will take this as a tacit withdrawal unless you do provide the actual substantiation.Again: I can ask you to support this claim -- what specific experiments, which specific failures occured. Document the assertion or withdraw it. The other option is for you to agree that you do not have that data and documentation and withdrawn the comment (and don't use it again without providing substantiation). I will take this as a tacit withdrawal unless you do provide the actual substantiation.Do you deny that speciation has occured? Without substantiating your point above this is nothing more than rambling assertion. Back up your foundation before you make a conclusion that is founded on this ice at best.I truly am intersted in what this little experiment of yours involves. Another ad hominem attack on the messanger -- that's the third one so far.It is actually very easy. The point of the argument is that one ticket always wins, and that calculating - after the fact - what the probability of {that particular ticket} winning the lottery is actually irrelevant to the probability that ONE will win.What this means for the question of calculating the "probability" of life occuring is that it could very easily be the same kind of "lottery": one form of "life" will "win" and that calculating - after the fact - what the probability of that particular "life" winning the "lottery" is actually irrelevant to the probability that ONE will win. Or it could be some other pattern of possibilities: We don't know. insuperable: Impossible to overcome; insurmountable: insuperable odds.This has not been demonstrated to be the case: please support this assertion or withdraw the comment. I will take this as a tacit withdrawal unless you do provide the actual substantiation.And another ad hominem attack on the messanger -- that's the fourth one so far. Here we go again. Provide the calculations and the assumptions that are made, demonstrate that all the possiblities are known and accounted for: you have to know the possibilities before you can calculate the probabilities. I will take this as a tacit withdrawal unless you do provide the actual substantiation.Pulling a number out of thin air does not make it credible, what makes it credible is the substatiation of the calculation. Prove that this is a valid calculation and does not include the error noted in the OP (original post on the thread). LOL. What you demonstrate here is a total - and I mean total - misunderstanding of the whole field of probability. Take 50 dice and toss them: what is the probability that they will all end up on a one? Pretty small right? Take everbody in the world and have each person toss the dice: what is the probability that not one will throw all 1's?Is this a different question? Not really: you could toss all 1's on the very first attempt, there is not one thing in the probability calculation that prevents that possiblity from occuring.And this does not include the aspect of how many sides are on the dice - 2? 20? Nor does it include the question of what the numbers on the dice are - all 1's? any old number on any side? As you can see the problem becomes completely incalculable if you do not know what all the possibilities are.What is more than clear is that the {creationist\IDist} calculations are nowhere near as complete as they would like to convince themselves (and you) that it is. This means that there is a big glaring error right in the middle of the room: the unexplained exclusions. Denial is like that. False. Possiblity is there, and that is all that is necessary. In addition, Homo sapiens is not necessarily the end result (my, what absolute arrogance to think so eh?).Tell me: who uncovered all the scientific frauds? Next tell me where any one of them is still being used as a truth in science? Now look at the creatortionista sites that have been debunked and debunked and that still promote their just-for-the-sucker-frauds. Try "Dr. Dino" for starters.Oh, and by the way ... your argument here is what they call "the argument from incredulity" and it is a logical fallacy that really only demonstrates your inability to understand, and not any failing on the part of the real world: it has already solved the problem, for life exists ... it is here ...Enjoy it.Let's sum the results:ad hominems, unsupported assertions, and an argument from incredulity, ... and not one point refuted.Looks like your ticket didn't win ... care to play our lottery again?ps - the ad hominems don't bother me at all, for they just demonstrate a weak argument: do you really have nothing better than insults? I turn the other cheek.Enjoy.{edited to change beginning now that the identity of the poster is known}This message has been edited by RAZD, 10*25*2005 08:09 AM

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

SpiderMBA - or Mirabile_Auditu as you are now calling yourself -Now that I know who you are, I am not surprised that you have not answsered my rebuttal of your weak post (Message 30), or by the logical fallacies and the ad hominem attacks and the complete lack of substance that were involved in your post.You are not new to the process, nor to me personally, and you can expect no "kid-glove treatement" from me (as I usually give to newcomers).Those who are unfamiliar with you will do well to take as a beginning the worst example of a FUNDIE (Fundamentalist Under Numerous Delusions Involving Evolution) they know as a starting point.Enjoy.

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

The post this is a reply to shows a common error in probablity calculations like the one you cited, and I concluded with: I would include with that anyone who repeats such calculations as factual after they have been shown these common errors and have done nothing to (a) refute the errors or (b) correct the calculations to elilminate them.Enjoy.

---

Join the effort to unravel {AIDS\HIV} with Team EvC! (click)

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

Still waiting for John to step up to the plate and substantiate his assertions of improbability.He has repeated them without making any effort to provide this substantiation:http://EvC Forum: Intelligent Design explains many follies{sigh}ftr: as long as you cannot show that the errors listed below do not apply to your probability argument it is invalidated.That means dead.Enjoy.

---

Join the effort to unravel {AIDS\HIV} with Team EvC! (click)

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

Let's look at the "probability problem" from a different angle using the same kind of "logic" used in the creatortionista calculations:Take any protein and cut it in half: what is the probability that it would rejoin in exactly the same way as it was before being cut?We'll label the protein {A-MN-Z} and it is cut into {A-M} and {N-Z} portions, and then we see that they can join in the following combinations: Next we'll put them in a sea of {A-M} and {N-Z} sub-proteins, say 10^{^+42} just for fun. What is the probability that at least one {A-M}-{N-Z} combination would form? Much more than 0.25x10^{^+42} so it is really astronomical, and thus it MUST have happened (remember we are using the same creatortionista logic eh?)Now we take each sub=protein and do the same "thought experiment" with them Next we'll put them in a sea of {A-F} and {G-M} sub-proteins, say 10^{^+21} just for fun. What is the probability that at least one {A-F}-{G-M} combination would form? Still pretty astronomical, so it MUST have happened as well. GOSH. Next we'll put them in a sea of {N-S} and {T-Z} sub-proteins, say 10^{^+21} just for fun. What is the probability that at least one {N-S}-{T-Z} combination would form? Still pretty astronomical, so it MUST have happened as well. GOSH AND GOLLY.And we can keep going, dividing and recombining until we get down to {A-B} {C-D} {E-F} {G-H} {I-J} {K-L} {M-N} {O-P} {Q-R} {S-T} {U-V} {W-X} {Y-Z} ... or in the real world until we get down to the 20 amino acids (which we now know can be formed spontaneously or provided by extra-solar generation). There is thus no need to carry the calculation back any more as this is demonstrated as a viable starting point.Now the question is, what is the probability that ONE (1) protein {A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-I-J-K-L-M-N-O-P-Q-R-S-T-U-V-W-X-Y-Z} formed from all that "goo"? Well we had >0.25x10^{^+42} times 2(>0.25x10^{^+21}) times 4(>0.25x10^{^+10.5}) times 8(>0.25x10^{^+5.25} ....Now observe that 0.25x10^{^+42} times 2(0.25x10^{^+21}) = 0.25x2x0.25x10^{^+42+21} = 0.125x10^{^+63} ... so it just keeps getting better -- BOY it really MUST have happened eh?I guarantee you that the math used here is no worse than the math used by creatortionistas in their probability calculations, and that it is just as reality based.Enjoy.

---

Join the effort to unravel {AIDSHIV} with Team EvC! (click)

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.

From Message 18But obviously you don't, your argument from authority notwithstanding (it is a logical fallacy after all).Please demonstrate your knowledge rather than claim it.If it is a "bunch of malarky" and if you really "majored in math" (and presumably graduated ... after all you can "major" and fail to graduate), then it should be easy eh? And without the data can do squat. You don't have the data, therefore you cannot compute the probabilities.The computer cannot compute the number that would be successful nor the complete bound of possibilities, among other things.For example: I hold three faceted solids in my hand, the sides may or may not be regular or equal, the number of sides may or may not all be the same on all three, the markings may or may not all be the same on all three:What is the probability that I will throw a "7" when I throw these objects onto the table.Please supply your computations.Enjoy.Edited by RAZD, : took out link to this thread finished subtitleEdited by RAZD, : added example

---

Join the effort to unravel {AIDS/HIV} {Protenes} and {Cancer} with Team EvC! (click)

---

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

​

RebelAAmericanOZen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.