this is the only one I have trouble with............

NeilUnreal writes:

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The coin thing reminds me of that Statistics 101 question:
You toss a coin ten times and it comes up heads all ten times. Is the eleventh toss more likely to be:

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1) A head.
2) A tail.
3) 50/50 chance of heads or tails.

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(Answer Below)

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-Neil

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Answer: 1) A head.

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No, the answer is that you don't know since there is not enough information to give an answer.Is it a fair coin? If not, then the result will be in correlation to the way the coin is not fair.Is it a fair toss? Back when I was more into the magician thing, I could get a coin to land how I wanted about 80% of the time if you let me flip it and catch it. 100% of the time if could then do the classic smack-it-on-the-back-of-your-arm bit.So until you let us know more about the scenario, I can't tell you what the most likely result is.------------------
Rrhain
WWJD? JWRTFM!

Mm, I disagree - I think you're being too picky. There's enough information to be reasonably sure - not totally, of course - what's going on: it's either a biased flip or a loaded coin.Can we be totally sure? No, of course not. But the question doesn't ask "what will definately happen next?", just "what will probably happen next?"Nonetheless, I think the point has been made. But I forgot what it was, come to think of it.Anyway, Rrhain, by your own logic from another thread, your answer is no answer at all.

crashfrog responds to me:

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No, the answer is that you don't know since there is not enough information to give an answer.

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Mm, I disagree - I think you're being too picky. There's enough information to be reasonably sure - not totally, of course - what's going on: it's either a biased flip or a loaded coin.

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But if it's a loaded flip, you have no idea what's going to come next. If I'm the one controlling how the coin lands, you can't say anything about whether or not I'll make it land heads or tails without knowing what's going on inside my tiny little mind (there...I said it so you don't have to. )

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Anyway, Rrhain, by your own logic from another thread, your answer is no answer at all.

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No, because I gave a specific answer and then explained why it was necessary.You never gave a specific answer.------------------
Rrhain
WWJD? JWRTFM!

You gflorb a zbotnik ten times and it ziffles all ten times. Is the eleventh gflorb more likely to be:1) A ziffle.
2) An anti-ziffle.
3) 50/50 chance of a ziffle or an anti-ziffle.(Answer Below)-NeilAnswer: 1) A ziffle.

Of course, you idiot. A zbotnik always ziffles! It ziffles on all seven sides, whether you gflorb it or not.
(In earth-talk, heads on both sides on the coin).What was the discussion about, anyway? Predictions? If we perform an experiment N times, with a probability M of a particular outcome, the N+1th time has the same probability M irrespectrive of previous outcomes. If not, different samples of radioactive isotopes would show different half-lives, depending on their past history.As an aside, the parallel probability universes theory troubles me, because it says (in the fine print) that there must exist a universe where EVERY coin-toss results in heads and always will. I find this impossible to accept.Mike.
Mike.[This message has been edited by Mike Holland, 05-25-2003]

(Can you tell I was raised on Mad Magazines of the classic era? )

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Mike: Predictions? If we perform an experiment N times, with a probability M of a particular outcome...

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The point of the example vis-a-vis the current topic (the big bang), is: how do we determine M? There are two ways, theoretical and experiential (and combinations thereof).M might be 1 (doubtful); or it might be 0 (like the ID folks presume); or it might be really, really close to 0. We may know the answer someday, or we may not. Physicists and cosomologists have a lot of heavy lifting to do. (But they're a bright bunch!)-Neil[This message has been edited by NeilUnreal, 05-25-2003]