The Second Trump Presidency

Or you could have begun your message with "[qs=715]....of course you don't know. If you did know then you wouldn't have taken the position you have on tariffs....[/qs]". Then it would look like this: In the main tariffs are paid by the people of the country that levied them. What a stupid question. What is up with you? Are you here for serious discussion, or is your recent descent into very brief responses an indication that you've given up on that.When Trump recently posted on Truth Social, "At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable," did you respond, "Who is the 'China' in question?" You didn't, right? You knew exactly what China he was talking about. Well obviously I'm talking about the same China. Stop being an obstructive unconstructive blockhead. Sure, some of it. And the rest? Where are you getting this nonsense from? The "hollowing out of rural America" is not a reference to anything to do with manufacturing. It's about what's happening to rural America with the loss of jobs, population, shopping, health providers, and so on. You agree with it later on, so maybe the contradiction you see is within yourself. I simply assumed that when you said, "And we are in desperate need of getting back in shape and rebuilding, contrary to what the gaslighters say, contrary to the acceptance of the managed decline that has become our de facto national policy," that you weren't talking about your side but the other side. Was I wrong about that? What you're doing is not quibbling. It's raising meaningless distractions instead of constructively contributing to the discussion. But you support Trump in his authoritarian efforts. Are you making this up yourself, or just repeating what someone else made up? Does the phrase "coequal branches of government" sound at all familiar to you? You mean by refraining from demanding that states ban transgender athletes? That sort of thing? You can't pretend a problem away. But you disagreed with it before because you thought it had something to do with the decline in manufacturing. RFK is one of the loonier members of the Trump clown car of an administration that a subservient Republican Senate was spineless enough to rubber stamp. Uh, sure, and mom and apple pie, too. But everyone should have access to affordable healthcare. I'll drink to that! Seriously, where are you getting this nonsense from. American alcohol consumption has remained relatively constant, slightly down, in fact, if you want to split hairs. But edibles are okay? You're making stuff up again. You tell me - you're the one with the talent for fabrication.--Percy

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Trump will use his Exec Power if it's there, just like he will use tax laws to his benefit - all unapologetically. Let's bring this Exec Power to heel.

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Trump is going beyond the power that is there. He’s grabbing more and the Republicans party is doing nothing to stop it. Remember he’s trying to amend the Constitution by executive order.You voted FOR this. Own it.

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There's this all-or-nothing attitude that poisons our national dialogue.

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Either RFK jr is in office or he isn’t. You can’t have the good things he wants without having the bad. And you didn’t even talk about the bad. At the least you’re happy to accept it.

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Trump's detractors can't say anything good about Trump no matter what, or even support anything that he supports. That's crazy.

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When there’s so much bad and so little good that’s the way it has to be. What has Trump managed that’s actually good? How is it worth mentioning against the many many very bad things?

during his first term he put operation warp speed into effect developing multiple vaccines for COVID. Of course he does try to distance himself from that now since so many of his followers are anti-vax sister-fucking-hillbillies.

That was the last term, but yes it was a good thing. But even so, Trump’s handling of the pandemic included a lot of bad things. And it doesn’t make up for the attacks on vaccines going on now.

Our old fireplace insert is getting a little old and the new ones have a catalytic technology that burns much cleaner, so we're buying a new fireplace insert. The insert we chose is manufactured in Canada, and I was just informed on Friday that the cost has been increased by $200 because of tariffs on goods from Canada. Thank you, Mr. Trump.And to the dingbats denying that the Trump tariffs are paid for by us, screw you. Wake up.--Percy

I'm asking for an 'in general' answer. In general, are you happy with things so far?

Printing this in total because, well, it explains a lot. The last sentence is important Well, well, well.In a US customs messaging note quietly slipped out in the early hours of Saturday, a series of numbers were listed as exempt from the 125% tariff on goods entering the country from China.The code "8517.13.00.00" means very little to most of the world, but in the US customs list it represents smartphones.The inclusion meant that the number one Chinese export to America by value last year was exempted from the import taxes, alongside other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells and memory cards.In the context of the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just days ago announcing that part of the point of escalating tariffs on China was to bring back iPhone production to the US, this was a stunning about-turn.The US has now excluded the single biggest Chinese export, and certainly the most high profile finished good from tariffs, without publicly announcing it at first.It is worth considering what would have happened in the absence of this exemption.The effect of 125% tariffs on Apple's Zhengzou manufacturing facility in eastern China would have started to show in weeks at most across American Apple stores. It would have been a totemic "sticker shock" for the White House tumultuous tariff push.According to one Counterpoint, a global technology market research firm, as much as 80% of Apple's iPhones intended for US sale are made in China.The tech giant's manufacturing profit margins are estimated to be between 40-60%. Typical iPhone prices might have moved closer to $2,000 than $1,000. The other option for Apple could have been to spread the cost across all of its global prices, but would the rest of the world accepted paying the Trump tariff tax?A very public repricing of iPhones has been avoided, but still may occur if, as the White House House has said, that the previously imposed 20% tariffs on China related to the powerful opioid fentanyl, remain in place.Tim Cook, the chief executive of Apple, is a key player here. He can walk into a meeting with both US president Donald Trump and China president Xi Jinping. It is not an outlandish prediction to suggest that, if it comes, any peace in the US-China trade war could be brokered by Cook.That's based on his deep fundamental role in connecting the two economies. He was hand selected by Apple's co-founder Steve Jobs for his unrivalled expertise in just-in-time supply logistics. 'Art of the Repeal'
This is all moving rather quickly now. Weekend reports in the US press claim White House trade hawk Pete Navarro is being side lined too in favour of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.Navarro was the author of the infamous equation that set so-called reciprocal tariff rates in proportion to the size of a country's trade surplus with the US, calling it "the sum of all cheating".Bessent is now leading negotiations with trade partners seeking to avoid the reapplication of those rates after the 90-day pause.There is a big question after 10 days of chaos. What is the incentive for other nations to offer much here? The Trump administration is clearly spooked by the bond market reaction to the president's trade plans, and questions surrounding the safe haven status of US debt for investors.In trying to stave off effective interest rates on bonds rising to 5%, the US needs deals more than just those in surplus countries.Indeed this weekend's broad range of exemptions are in and of themselves an astonishing U-turn on the principle embodied in the notorious tariff chart held up by Trump in the Rose Garden.
Just under a quarter of China's total exports are now exempt from the 125% tariff, according to Capital Economics.The consultancy suggests there are other big winners from the exemptions, with 64% of exports to the US from Taiwan, 44% from Malaysia, and just under 30% from both Vietnam and Thailand now also exempt.The 10% universal tariff is now riddled with exemptions, and the biggest carve outs are for many nations with massive trade surpluses from electronics manufacturing.The new tariff equation is to give an effective discount from the universal 10% (through exemptions) to those with the biggest surpluses. For example, Taiwan has a $74bn surplus with the US, and Vietnam a $124bn surplus.This is the exact opposite of the infamous Navarro calculation from last week. In 10 days we've gone from the "looters and pillagers" will be hit the hardest, to (apart from China) those with big surpluses getting the biggest exemptions.Meanwhile an ally such as the UK which according to US figures has a $12bn deficit - i.e. the US sells more to the UK than the other way round, has a 25% tariff on cars, its biggest goods exports, with number two, medicines, in line for similar charges.The White House has gone from clearly suggesting that there would be no negotiation on the baseline 10% tariffs to offering exemptions to the very products causing the deficit that the entire policy was supposed to solve.This is a lot more than a "row back". Some have called in the "Art of the Repeal". The 4D chess has been replaced by someone playing one dimensional checkers, but unable to tell the difference between opposing pieces.The US is now negotiating with the bond markets, and itself. The rest of the world will just see how this plays out now.Trump's iPhone olive branch is a significant trade war retreat - BBC News

It wasn’t so long ago that a Trump spokesman was boasting that Trump held all the cards in the trade war with China.Reality disagreed.

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Trump is also a real estate developer and businessman who has owned, managed, or licensed his name to hotels, casinos, golf courses, resorts, and residential properties in the New York City area and around the world. Since the 1980s Trump has lent his name to scores of retail ventures—including branded lines of clothing, cologne, food, and furniture. In the early 21st century his private conglomerate, the Trump Organization, comprised some 500 companies involved in a wide range of businesses, including hotels and resorts, residential properties, merchandise, and entertainment and television.

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Just a moment..."A wide range of businesses" Most of what he's done in his busy life has involved international trade in many ways, largely involving materials cost and supply for his many ventures.He was a guest on Oprah Winfrey back in 1988, saying pretty much exactly what he's been saying recently. (Fox News has recently been showing video clips from the mid-90's of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer saying the exact same things) Some additional experience in international trade occurred when he was president from 2016 to 2020. 14 1/2 years younger than Trump, never been president of the U.S. Apple is ONE company, not a wide range of businesses, not scores of retail ventures.

Not reality, just the Democrat's current opinion. The dealings with China aren't over, and the Republican opinion is that he still holds those cards.

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Not reality, just the Democrat's current opinion

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The Democrats had nothing to do with it. It was the Trump administration that issued the exemption.

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The dealings with China aren't over, and the Republican opinion is that he still holds those cards.

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The exemption says otherwise.

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"A wide range of businesses" Most of what he's done in his busy life has involved international trade in many ways, largely involving materials cost and supply for his many ventures.

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Most of those businesses have little to nothing to do with international trade. The merchandising ventures undoubtedly source products from overseas - likely the very places Trump calls “the worst offenders”. But that doesn’t mean that Trump has much of a role in that - indeed the number of companies in itself argues against it. And the article you link to mentions nothing of significance.

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14 1/2 years younger than Trump, never been president of the U.S. Apple is ONE company, not a wide range of businesses, not scores of retail ventures.

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Apple is a huge company with a complex international supply chain, manufacturing products in a number of countries and selling in many more. As COO of Apple Cook was directly involved in revamping that supply chain. Not to mention his previous roles in other companies.So way ahead of Trump who seems to have no comparable experience.

This has got to be the first time in history when those on the left finally saw a tax they didn't like. Was Biden's war on fossil fuels not also paid for by us? ABC World News Tonight has been carefully analyzing how much extra tariffs will cost. During the Biden administration, no reports on the extra costs of oil, and who actually pays them.From 2023;Price Tag for Biden’s War on Oil and Gas - IERAlso from 2023. "The Hill" is hardly considered conservative.Access to this page has been denied

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Most recently, the White House canceled oil and gas leases on hundreds of thousands of acres in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and extended protections against future drilling to millions more.

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On ABC World News Tonight recently, they gleefully showed an invoice for some foreign product that showed (gasp) a "tariff surcharge!!!!" If only they'd have been anywhere near the trucking industry during the Biden administration, they'd have seen a FUEL SURCHARGE. But most people don't know that, because it wasn't reported by the mainstream media.I know you've invited me in the past to start a thread on news media bias. But it would be of no use here - no one here knows a thing about it. You've stated before that you don't watch evening national news television broadcasts, little doubt anyone else here does either. Also little doubt that anyone here ever watches Fox News, or gets any kind of variety in their information. The largely uninterested general public does either. Maybe that can start to change, when so much of the doom and gloom that's predicted by the fringe left now never happens.("The Hill" link works when I click on it)

What "exemption"? There's an official exemption about a political claim about who "holds cards"? Link please.

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What "exemption"?

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The one Tangle was talking about. Didn’t you notice that I was replying to the previous post? The tariff exemption for smartphones computers and some other electronics. Haven’t you heard about that? That’s what shows that Trump didn’t hold all the cards.