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Author Topic:   Why There Are Gold Bugs & Silver Stackers
Percy
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Posts: 22505
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


(8)
Message 16 of 64 (916899)
03-15-2024 5:40 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by Tanypteryx
03-15-2024 5:21 PM


I've probably told this story before, but anyway, I used to manage my own stock portfolio. I did all my own research and made all the decisions about when to buy and sell. After about 10 years I was totally disgusted with how badly I'd done and completely abandoned the effort. Whatever stocks I owned when I quit just sat there, untouched. I didn't check broker statements or notices of shareholder meetings or annual reports or anything. I just dropped the whole business.
About 20 years later as retirement was getting closer and it was time to start managing our money better I finally took a look at my old stock account. It had done fantastic! Ignoring it and doing nothing was the best strategy.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-15-2024 5:21 PM Tanypteryx has seen this message but not replied

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dwise1
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Posts: 5952
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.2


(6)
Message 17 of 64 (916900)
03-15-2024 7:48 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by Percy
03-15-2024 5:40 PM


Reminds me of the conventional wisdom imparted to us in one of our company's HR presentations for its retirement fund programs.
The stock market fluctuates, going up and down every day, even every hour and several times an hour. However, overall the market goes up. If you react to every single fluctuation, you'll be buying and selling constantly (and each transaction costs a fee, if I recall correctly). But if you just sit on it and ride out those fluctuations, then it will increase, as a general rule.
Similarly, when it was finally offered, I bought into 401(k) contributions, increasing them as my pay increased until I was finally making the maximum percentage contribution. Then I just ignored it for the next 22 years. I didn't look at it until I was nearing retirement and I was surprised to see that it had increased forty-fold, leaving me much more than comfortable.

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9202
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.2


(1)
Message 18 of 64 (916901)
03-15-2024 9:44 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Percy
03-15-2024 5:16 PM


Re: Hard Ass(ets)
mine is up about 12%. But my argument stands. Impossible to tell what is attributable to inflation.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Percy, posted 03-15-2024 5:16 PM Percy has not replied

  
Theodoric
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Posts: 9202
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.2


(2)
Message 19 of 64 (916902)
03-15-2024 10:01 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by dwise1
03-15-2024 7:48 PM


I stopped working 20 years ago. I rolled my 401k over into an IRA and never touched it. I am surprised by its value. My wife has contributed to her 403b's for 20 years. As she had a high income she has a lot put away. We also have a set amount taken out of our checking account every month. She turns 55 in 8 years. We need to have enough for her to retire then. I don't want to be dead or old and decrepit when she retires.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by dwise1, posted 03-15-2024 7:48 PM dwise1 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by Tanypteryx, posted 03-15-2024 10:19 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
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Posts: 4451
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.5


(1)
Message 20 of 64 (916903)
03-15-2024 10:19 PM
Reply to: Message 19 by Theodoric
03-15-2024 10:01 PM


We just put our IRAs in certificate accounts that pay over 5.5%. Funny, high interest rates don't matter to me anymore since we don't borrow money anymore.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!
What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python
One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie
If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy
The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3

This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 10:01 PM Theodoric has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9202
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 21 of 64 (916904)
03-15-2024 10:32 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Percy
03-15-2024 5:16 PM


Re: Hard Ass(ets)
Also we all know Phat has no actual facts and figures. He pulled the 25% figure out of his ass.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Percy, posted 03-15-2024 5:16 PM Percy has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 8:50 AM Theodoric has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18349
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.0


Message 22 of 64 (916909)
03-16-2024 8:34 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by Theodoric
03-15-2024 4:08 PM


Re: Hard Ass(ets)
Theo writes:
Bullshit. Provide facts and figures. Anecdotes are not evidence. Comparing grocery bills year to year to come up with some sort of inflation rate is stupid. People's tastes change, they change diets. There are regional issues.
As for the rest of the crap you spout. Look up deflation. YOu are wrong about gold. The same could be said about any other metal commodity. None of them are bedrocks.
You are the mark every scammer is looking for.
Several questions.
  • In modern monetary "theory" (as opposed to fact) what *is* the bedrock of the global financial system? Provide facts and data.
    This may or may not be helpful.
    quote:
    Can precious metals like silver truly act as stable stores of value in an uncertain economic landscape? Some investors believe that silver's intrinsic qualities make it an effective hedge against inflation over the long term. Yet, critics argue that silver is too volatile to rely on.
    In this article, we will analyze the characteristics that make commodities reliable inflation hedges, judging how well silver stacks up and whether it deserves consideration as a secure asset.
    Silver as a Store of Value
  • Metal's Demand
    Silver has diverse applications, from jewelry and coinage to electronics and solar panels. This industrial usefulness creates a baseline level of constant demand.
    Additionally, silver has enduring appeal as an asset with a store of value, generating investment demand. Healthy demand exists for both physical silver and paper vehicles like ETFs.(I do not recommend ETFS. They too are part of the paper house of cards)
  • Scarcity of the Metal Commodity
    Like gold, silver is rare and limited in quantity. While estimates vary, the total worldwide stocks of silver are around 530,000 metric tons. That may sound abundant, but it's very small compared to annual demand and production. Scarcity supports silver's value.
    Silver does exhibit volatility, sometimes even more than gold. But over long periods, silver has proven itself a stable way of preserving purchasing power.
    For example, with U.S. inflation averaging 3.8% from 1913 to 2022, silver has kept pace, appreciating in real terms. Periodic volatility is a trade-off that comes with silver's upside potential.(not taking into consideration compound interest, to be fair)
  • Transportability
    Silver is a precious metal with remarkable density, measuring nearly 20 times denser than gold. This unique characteristic makes it an excellent choice for those who value compactness and convenience.
    Unlike other commodities that can be quite bulky and cumbersome, silver is much easier to store and transport due to its high density. Even if you possess a significant amount of silver bullion, you can keep it secure and safe by storing it in a vault or private location.
    This feature is particularly advantageous for those who want to keep their investments protected and accessible at all times.

  • Now as to your request that I understand deflation, note that I am well aware that the Great Depression was a deflationary depression. Many well-schooled people * not affiliated* with either the government dept. of the treasury or the Federal Reserve expect any future recessions or depressions in this era to be inflationary or even briefly hyperinflationary rather than deflationary.
    Silver Prices: XAG/USD Showcases Strength Amid Inflation Fears
    The U.S. Military uses a lot of silver! While the exact amounts needed are classified, the point is that silver is an industrial metal with lots of uses as well as a historic store of "value".
    In conclusion, I respect Taqs argument that precious metals should be a part of a balanced portfolio. Experts recommend 5-10%.

  • This message is a reply to:
     Message 8 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 4:08 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 24 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:03 PM Phat has replied
     Message 32 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:21 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18349
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.0


    Message 23 of 64 (916910)
    03-16-2024 8:50 AM
    Reply to: Message 21 by Theodoric
    03-15-2024 10:32 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Theo writes:
    Also we all know Phat has no actual facts and figures. He pulled the 25% figure out of his ass.
    So what?
    CNBC has a good article you might take notice of.
    Gold prices could keep climbing — but analysts expect silver to steal the show before long
    You fancy yourself a wise and prudent investor and I have no qualms with that. You have done well in the past when I was a fool who gambled. Don't think for a minute that I only listen to rubes and shysters. I may have been born at night but *not* last night!

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 21 by Theodoric, posted 03-15-2024 10:32 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 25 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:04 PM Phat has replied

      
    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 9202
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 3.2


    Message 24 of 64 (916916)
    03-16-2024 1:03 PM
    Reply to: Message 22 by Phat
    03-16-2024 8:34 AM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    This whole post does not address anything I stated. Modern monetary theory is irrelevant. This is just another strawman and gish gallop from you. If you want to discuss the actual subject fine. If you want to troll I am done

    What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 22 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 8:34 AM Phat has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 28 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 3:59 PM Theodoric has replied

      
    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 9202
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 3.2


    Message 25 of 64 (916917)
    03-16-2024 1:04 PM
    Reply to: Message 23 by Phat
    03-16-2024 8:50 AM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Irrelevant. So you admit the 25% claim is bullshit.

    What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 23 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 8:50 AM Phat has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 26 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 3:37 PM Theodoric has replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18349
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.0


    Message 26 of 64 (916922)
    03-16-2024 3:37 PM
    Reply to: Message 25 by Theodoric
    03-16-2024 1:04 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    No.
    You can give 5 forcasts for inflation numbers...all of them by relevant degree bearing individuals and still not arrive at a precise and correct number. Numbers are elusive and can be manipulative. I'm not saying that our current government gives out false or misleading information. Im saying that nobody knows the actual number.
    |
    As another example: I have heard that the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power, but I am unclear what the numbers mean and if they are accurate. (since 1888)
    If that number is true, Golds value in 1888 should be at the very least 97% higher and in fact is much more than that. Gold does not ever decline in value. It only declines in value relative to fiat currencies. The question is which train is actually moving and which train is standing still?

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 25 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:04 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 27 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 3:40 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 33 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:29 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 9202
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 3.2


    Message 27 of 64 (916923)
    03-16-2024 3:40 PM
    Reply to: Message 26 by Phat
    03-16-2024 3:37 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Again. Irrelevant. I was calling Bullshit on your 25% claim.

    What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 26 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 3:37 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

      
    Phat
    Member
    Posts: 18349
    From: Denver,Colorado USA
    Joined: 12-30-2003
    Member Rating: 1.0


    Message 28 of 64 (916924)
    03-16-2024 3:59 PM
    Reply to: Message 24 by Theodoric
    03-16-2024 1:03 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Quit trying to frame the issue(s). In my opinion, you are not yet done. You are roughly medium rare.
    Theo writes:
    If you want to discuss the actual subject fine.
    Remind me what the actual subject is again? Oh that's right...I started the topic! Lets see...
    quote:
    Let us discuss this topic on the definition of the value of hard assets vs fiat currencies.
    Taq writes:
    I would fully agree that stocks do come with risk, but the fact they are bought and sold in dollars is not why they are risky.
    I would look into the idea that the stock market is propped up and that some companies buy their own stock. I also have heard that the FED itself plays around with money and numbers. I can see Theo looking at me now demanding hard data...so I best get busy finding some.!
    Theo writes:
    The faith and credit of the United States of America is the best backing any currency could have.
    Does everyone believe that? What is it precisely that we have "faith" in?
    I have heard that if faith in the treasury and credit markets was ever shaken and that mass of money found no safe haven except Gold, the value of Gold would momentarily reach $60,000.00+ per ounce.
    What would Biden do then? Confiscate it all like FDR did?
    Theo writes:
    So your "personal observation" is more valid than verifiable facts and data points?
    OK. I challenge you to verify the official government numbers! How do you propose to do that?
    Theo writes:
    Bullshit. Provide facts and figures. Anecdotes are not evidence.
    If I did, would you only trust the figures if they made your anxiety less? If the source had a "relevant degree"? Whatever the frack that means!
    Answer my question.

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 24 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 1:03 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 29 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 4:09 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
     Message 34 by Taq, posted 03-18-2024 11:49 AM Phat has replied

      
    Theodoric
    Member
    Posts: 9202
    From: Northwest, WI, USA
    Joined: 08-15-2005
    Member Rating: 3.2


    Message 29 of 64 (916925)
    03-16-2024 4:09 PM
    Reply to: Message 28 by Phat
    03-16-2024 3:59 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Done feeding the troll. Just a Gish gallop with no responses to actual arguments made.

    What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

    Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

    "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

    If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


    This message is a reply to:
     Message 28 by Phat, posted 03-16-2024 3:59 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 30 by Percy, posted 03-17-2024 7:29 AM Theodoric has replied

      
    Percy
    Member
    Posts: 22505
    From: New Hampshire
    Joined: 12-23-2000
    Member Rating: 4.9


    (3)
    Message 30 of 64 (916932)
    03-17-2024 7:29 AM
    Reply to: Message 29 by Theodoric
    03-16-2024 4:09 PM


    Re: Hard Ass(ets)
    Theodoric in Message 29 writes:
    Just a Gish gallop with no responses to actual arguments made.
    More like the mystifying musings of a man in the midst of a mania that makes him manufacture a morass of misapprehensions from YouTube.
    --Percy

    This message is a reply to:
     Message 29 by Theodoric, posted 03-16-2024 4:09 PM Theodoric has replied

    Replies to this message:
     Message 31 by Theodoric, posted 03-17-2024 10:32 AM Percy has not replied

      
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