The Dollar isnt collapsing only because its still the strongest currency in the basket. I read a lot of commentaries and analysis on likely probable future trends. Peter Zeihan predicts that China will collapse sooner than will the United States.
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Zeihan sees no gloomy future for our economy apart from inflation, which won't simply go away.
That's a bunch of vague not-even-claims and a name-drop to your favorite YouTube "economist."
It sounds like you've heard some people say some things, and it gave you some big scary feelings about the US dollar and the US economy. Are you able to point out any
specifics? In what way
specifically do you believe US economic policy has been mismanaged? Even just one specific example.
The War in Ukraine is another story. There is likely little if any chance of Ukraine winning.
Based on what? What does "winning" look like, by your definition? What's your reasoning behind saying that their chances are small?
Estimates I've seen show that Russia can keep this up for a few more year, tops. They cannot replace all of the hardware they're losing. What Ukraine needs is constant resupply from the West - they have everything else they need to prevent Russia from encroaching further and taking over the country. They may or may not be able to recover all of Crimea, which was lost at the true start of this invasion, but as long as they continue to be supplied they can bleed Russia until they have no more equipment to send.
The trick is aid from the West. Interesting how Putin's goals of conquest align so well with certain political figures who are currently holding up that aid.
As for Israel, though I am against their tactics, I see no way that they will stop until the current generation of Hamas is rendered all but extinct. The problem there is that Palestine will simply grow more.(Hamas) A two-state solution is all but impossible.
The Israel-Palestine conflict has existed for generations and has become cyclical. There is literally no way for Israel to "win" this with military force, if the victory condition is the elimination of "terrorism" from Gaza. The exception would be real total annihilation of the entire Palestinian population - not just genocide, but a completed genocide. There is some evidence that Israel intends exactly that. But outside of complete extermination, all that has happened is that Israel has guaranteed another generation of the conflict. If Hamas dissolves, a new group with a different name will simply rise. Possibly more than one. With tactics and personnel that Israel will not know.
It takes more soldiers than the entire country of Israel has to stage a military occupation of Gaza and the West bank. The numbers required for successful occupation of a resistant population are known, and high. It's the same reason America failed in Afghanistan - it was a fool's errand from the start.
A two-state solution is the
only possibility, other than genocide or a complete redefinition of Israel.
You can look at Northern Ireland and the Good Friday agreement for an example of what peace would look like. Peace, not a ceasefire. Note that a member of Sinn Fein, not-really but kind-of the equivalent of Hamas, was just elected First minister, the first time a member of that "terrorist" group has been elected to such a high office. That's a little like a member of Hamas being elected to the Israeli Knesset. This is after 26 years since the agreement was signed. The peace is not a completely happy one. Many who were killed will never have "justice." For the sake of peace, the cyclical hatred needed to be stopped. There will remain sorrow and disappointment and pain for generations yet, but the peace offers the chance for a better future.
Israel and Palestine are similar. There is a history of colonialism, asymmetric warfare, terrorist attacks as resistance, reprisals. The situation is, (in my opinion) worse in Palestine. Peace is not won with bombs. Peace is not won by shooting everyone in a car, leaving a 6-year-old girl alone trapped with the dead corpses of her family for days, "clearing" the Red Crescent to rescue her, and then killing the ambulance drivers and the 6-year-old girl. That is what Israel is doing. They don't have to. It's not hurting Hamas. It's
recruiting for Hamas. It's degrading international support for Israel. It's what Hamas
wants, because they cannot possibly win a military victory against Israel.
Terrorism is a PR campaign with violence. The goal is not a military victory, because one side of the conflict has no ability to win one. The goal is to turn neutrals into supporters, to turn supporters into active members. The goal is to degrade the support of the major power's allies, and to give an opportunity to their own international sympathizers. And that is precisely what is happening.
You win against terrorism by subverting the terrorists. Be the organization that provides aid, helps provide autonomy and security, treats the people with dignity. Give the Palestinians a fair shake
for the first time in 70 years. Fair includes full autonomy, not hamstrung deals that keep them totally at the mercy of Israel. None of this "Israel
generously gives water necessary for life to Gaza." If you can turn off the spigot, you have control and they don't have autonomy.
At this point the hate is too strong and an international group is likely needed to broker the deal and provide security, standing between the two sides to enforce peace. But this is how you start a lasting, enduring peace.
Netanhayu doesn't want peace. He wants a scary bogeyman to keep his fragile political coalition together and avoid the criminal charges he has pending. It's the fascist playbook...again.
“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” - Francis Bacon"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
“A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity.” – Albert Camus
"...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." - Barash, David 1995...
"Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, J. R. R. Tolkien: The Lord Of the Rings
"The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death."
1 Corinthians 15:26King James Version (KJV)
Nihil supernum