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Author Topic:   2024 US Presidential Election
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2463
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 887 of 943 (918578)
05-10-2024 3:33 PM
Reply to: Message 883 by Percy
05-10-2024 7:01 AM


Holding Percy to his high standards: The Firearm Issue
I will come back to your minimizing the Holocaust denialism, but let me get to your maximalism on guns, first:
I tend to find the "gun control" issue to be annoying (It is falsely named "Gun Control" as the proponents only propose HANDGUN control THUS IGNORING the fact that rifles are the main killers - specifically animals), and for many reasons. Cancer kills 600,000 people (Americans that is) and a solution to most cancer deaths is thousands of years away.
The (hand)gun issue is an overblown "old age" distraction, and a waste of time AT BEST. A horrible distraction.
BUT YOU CALLED FOR RAISING THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE
ADDRESS THESE ISSUES THEN:
1) Is it true that states with the toughest laws really have lower gun events?
See the anti gun article:
How Gun Laws In New Mexico Compare To Other States
Grant Suneson
June 7 2020
Special Report
The bottom of article has a smooth scrolling chart of ALL fifty states.
Is scores each state by:
(2020 data CDC used)
2020 Grade (Alabama, Arkansas, Alabama, Arizona get a "F")
Gun Law States Rank
Gun Death Rate per 100k
Gun Death Rate Rank
Total Gun Deaths
New Mexico has the 18th toughest gun laws ("C+"), but the 4th highest death rate at 22 per 100,000 residents
Next issue for you to raise us to:
2) SUICIDES RELATED?
CNN
States With The Most Gun Violence Share One Trait
Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf
May 26,2022
quote:
Most gun deaths are suicides. In 2020, 54% of gun deaths in the US were suicides... according to a Pew Research Center analysis of CDC data.
I saw other analysis that said most gun deaths were homicides, elsewhere.
But the suicide dichotomy is something that HIGHER LEVEL OF DIALOGUE-Standards demand we parse out.
More on that later.
CNN said California has a gun death rate at 8.5 per 100k while Texas was at 14.2.
We should ask what Colorado is at in total Gun Deaths then parse out Suicides and Homicides (plus accidents).
Colorado has tough gun control and is, like New Mexico, between Texas and California.
I would suggest California has fewer young people than Texas, for one thing. Per 100k people.
SUICIDE STUFF
THE AFSP site says:
Suicide is 11th leading cause of death
48,183 in 2021
14.04 per 100k
132 per day
Male:female 3.9:1
White men 69.68%
Fire Arms 54.64%
Now, I have seen other data showing drug overdose deaths and deliberately poisoning oneself to be leading causes of suicide.
See EurekAlert
Death By Suicide
8-Feb-2021
Most sources say guns are the tool of choice for suicide, and I will reluctantly allow that, though political stances might influence the acceptance of a highly questionable statistic.
The AFSP site has a revealing color-coded graph which shows a national map displaying the amount and locations of suicides by frequency. West of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas the increase is almost everywhere. Otherwise, only Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine are striking.
quote:
Between 2018 and 2021, suicide rates were highest in the region that includes Alaska and the western to northwestern United States except in southern California and parts of Washington.
Rural areas have much higher suicides than urban areas.
White men are around 73% of suicides, it seems.
So 35% of suicides are white men, often rural.
FOR PERSPECTIVE:
The total homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 in 2014, and 7.8 in 2020.
Suicides VIA GUN seem to slightly outnumber GUN homicide deaths.
More on that later next:
NEXT PERCY ISSUE:
3) "TRUMP STATES" Misery index
Look at the suicide score
Suicide states by rank and deaths per 100k (2020 CDC)
1 Wyoming 32.3 (Trump +3)
2 Montana 32.0 (Trump 3)
3 Alaska 30.8 (Trump 3)
4 New Mexico 25.0 (Biden 5)
5 South Dakota 23.2 (Trump 3)
6 Colorado 22.8 (Biden 9?)
7 Oklahoma 22.1 (Trump 7)
8 Nevada 21.5 (Biden 6)
9 North Dakota 20.8 (Trump 3)
10 West Virginia 20.6 (Trump 5)
11 Arkansas 20.6 (Trump 4)
12 Idaho 20.5 (Trump 4)
13 Vermont 20.3 (Biden 3)
14 Utah 20.1 (Trump 6)
15 Oregon 19.5 (Biden 7/8?)
16 Maine (Biden 3 Trump 1)
17 Arizona (Biden 10/11)
The 1/3 worst suicide states seem to be a bit more in the Biden camp. Though Nevada and Arizona are close Biden states.
Suicides are around 15 per 100k and most seem to be gun deaths.
Homicides are the other half of gun deaths, and 8 per 100k.
Sticking with total suicides, you will like the ten lowest suicide states
1 Washington DC 6.2
2 New Jersey 7.1
3 New York 7.9
4 Massachusetts 8.0
5 Maryland 9.7
6 Connecticut 10
7 California 10.1
8 Rhode Island 10.3
9 ?
10 Virginia 13.2
Biden wins the least suicide states.
But these are states that many poor people can't afford to live in. Except Virginia. These tend to be states with an older population and the population is dropping.
This leads to my next point:
4) DEMOGRAPHICS AND UNIQUE SITUATIONS
Gun violence deaths might be a reflection of cultural situations.
Mexico has very tough gun laws, but high homicide rates.
In the United States, different regions have different situations.
Hawaii has islands where you can't live without (almost) an invitation. The police are many and tough per square mile. Few can afford Hawaii, and the culture is different.
That is a Biden state.
Look at Alaska:
A Trump state, which has a statewide-elected Eskimo Democrat representing the state in Congress.
The native culture would never dream of outlawing guns, nor would most "migrants" (whites).
It is a cold, high-suicide place BUT would suicides drop minus the guns?
Appalachian America is loaded with drug overdose and illicit drug deaths. Pills and poison can kill as well as guns, and people know it.
The murder rate exists, and the solution is to "ban guns", if you want to ban EVERYTHING - including rifles.
The total homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 in 2014, now it is 8 per 100k.
But why not "ban people"?
(This is not a joke,really)
(New Mexico has much worse gun death stats than Texas, so start with total bans on guns, then limit what people can do and where they can go, right?)
Why stop with guns?
Look at automotive deaths?
Ban vehicles.
Look at cancer deaths.
Look at heart disease deaths.
Ban and fight!
Brave zealots...
What about

This message is a reply to:
 Message 883 by Percy, posted 05-10-2024 7:01 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 888 by Percy, posted 05-10-2024 7:20 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 889 by Admin, posted 05-11-2024 7:37 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22565
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.6


(3)
Message 888 of 943 (918580)
05-10-2024 7:20 PM
Reply to: Message 887 by LamarkNewAge
05-10-2024 3:33 PM


Re: Holding Percy to his high standards: The Firearm Issue
Could you please compose a message of full sentences and paragraphs and provide links for your online references?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 887 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-10-2024 3:33 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 891 by AZPaul3, posted 05-12-2024 6:38 AM Percy has not replied

  
Admin
Director
Posts: 13075
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 889 of 943 (918583)
05-11-2024 7:37 AM
Reply to: Message 887 by LamarkNewAge
05-10-2024 3:33 PM


Re: Holding Percy to his high standards: The Firearm Issue
I think I may have found a role for ChatGPT. I gave it these instructions:
Instructions to ChatGPT:
Could you please play the role of a 9th grade English teacher and grade the following as if it were a paper submitted by a student. Grade according to the standard rules of English composition.
I then provided it your Message 887 and it responded like this:
ChatGPT the English Teacher:
Grade: D
Comments:
  1. The paper lacks a clear thesis statement or central argument. It jumps between different topics without a clear structure or organization.
  2. The writing is informal and lacks proper academic tone. The use of phrases like "I tend to find" and "BUT YOU CALLED FOR RAISING THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE" is overly conversational and detracts from the overall coherence of the paper.
  3. The paper contains several factual inaccuracies and unsubstantiated claims. For example, the statement "It is falsely named 'Gun Control' as the proponents only propose HANDGUN control THUS IGNORING the fact that rifles are the main killers - specifically animals" is misleading and lacks evidence to support it.
  4. The paper would benefit from more thorough research and analysis. The author should provide more evidence to support their claims and consider alternative perspectives on the issues discussed.
Overall, the paper shows some effort, but it lacks clarity, structure, and proper support for its arguments.
I think ChatGPT was rather generous. I would have given you an F and recommended transfer to a remedial English class.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
 Message 887 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-10-2024 3:33 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 890 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-11-2024 8:16 PM Admin has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2463
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 890 of 943 (918586)
05-11-2024 8:16 PM
Reply to: Message 889 by Admin
05-11-2024 7:37 AM


Fact checking the claim that murder rates go up with strong state gun control legisla
(I am on my phone, and it makes my English grammar difficult due to scrolling & vision issues)
I wonder why you did not go to the 24/7 Wall Street sight.
You were the one that ignored state gun control legislation, but you instead farted-over whether the state voted for Trump.
TELL ME ABOUT HOW LOGICAL IT IS TO THINK TRUMP MATTERS WHEN YOU HAVE GOVERNORS AND STATE LEGISLATURES.
GRANT SUNESON SCORED EVERY STATE WITH A GRADE:
(Score reflected toughest laws)
8 got "A"s
Massachusetts
Hawaii
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
California
Maryland
Illinois
(All were an "A-", except California)
B+ states:
Rhode Island
Washington (state)
B states:
Virginia
Delaware
C+states:
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
C states:
Nebraska
Iowa
C- states:
Vermont
Florida
Michigan
Wisconsin
D states:
Indiana
North Carolina
Ohio
D- states:
Utah
Tennessee
F states:
New Hampshire
Maine
South Dakota
Texas
Idaho
North Dakota
West Virginia
Kansas
Arizona
Alaska
Wyoming
Montana
Arkansas
Missouri
Alabama
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Georgia
Indiana
Louisiana
Mississippi
Now I will look at the homicide rate using 47 states CDC numbers.
3 states will need the 2022 FBI rate.
Wikipedia has LIST OF US STATES AND TERRITORIES HOMICIDE RATE
2021 CDC and 2022 FBI stats are there.
The CDC used coroner reports which includes all killings, and ignores the legal definition of self defense.
Rankings (safest to most dangerous)
(CDC numbers except for 3 states - NH, Vermont, and Wyoming)
(Homicide deaths per 100,000)
Maine 1.7
New Hampshire (FBI) 1.8
Idaho 2.2
Massachusetts 2.3
Wyoming (FBI) 2.6
Utah 2.7
Hawaii 2.7
Iowa 3.2
Vermont (FBI) 3.4
North Dakota 3.4
Rhode Island 3.6
Nebraska 3.6
Montana 4.4
Washington 4.5
Minnesota 4.3
Connecticut 4.8
New York 4.8
New Jersey 4.8
Oregon 4.9
South Dakota 5.3
Colorado 6.3
Alaska 6.4
Kansas 6.4
Wisconsin 6.4
California 6.4
West Virginia 6.9
This covers the homicide rate for the first half.
Looks like it is mostly made up of F and D states.
I will cover the second half tomorrow, but tell me this:
Is the gun control claim that, STATE GOVERNMENT PASSING STRONG GUN CONTROL MEASURES MAKES FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HOMICIDE RATE COMPARED TO MORE LIMITED GUN CONTROL, accurate?
Is the claim:
Strongly supported by evidence?
Probably supported by the evidence?
Possibly supported by the evidence?
Not at all certain?
Probably not supported?
Probably Falsified?
Falsified?
7 choices.
(We have not looked at the bottom half of homicide states, mind you)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 889 by Admin, posted 05-11-2024 7:37 AM Admin has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 892 by Admin, posted 05-12-2024 7:09 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 894 by Taq, posted 05-13-2024 10:48 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 8582
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 891 of 943 (918587)
05-12-2024 6:38 AM
Reply to: Message 888 by Percy
05-10-2024 7:20 PM


Re: Holding Percy to his high standards: The Firearm Issue
Percy writes:
Could you please compose a message of full sentences and paragraphs and provide links for your online references?
I take the response as a "What?". I don't think he's there. I think he's in LaLa Land.

“There’s simply no polite way to tell people they’ve dedicated their lives to an illusion,”
-Daniel Dennett
Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 888 by Percy, posted 05-10-2024 7:20 PM Percy has not replied

  
Admin
Director
Posts: 13075
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 892 of 943 (918588)
05-12-2024 7:09 AM
Reply to: Message 890 by LamarkNewAge
05-11-2024 8:16 PM


Re: Fact checking the claim that murder rates go up with strong state gun control legisla
I'm sorry your phone is preventing you from composing comprehensible posts, but you cannot subject the rest of the membership to this. I'm changing your post limit to once per week. Try to find a tablet, laptop or desktop you can use.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
 Message 890 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-11-2024 8:16 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 893 by Theodoric, posted 05-12-2024 10:49 AM Admin has not replied

  
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 9265
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 3.3


Message 893 of 943 (918589)
05-12-2024 10:49 AM
Reply to: Message 892 by Admin
05-12-2024 7:09 AM


Re: Fact checking the claim that murder rates go up with strong state gun control legisla
And no source.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 892 by Admin, posted 05-12-2024 7:09 AM Admin has not replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10139
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 894 of 943 (918592)
05-13-2024 10:48 AM
Reply to: Message 890 by LamarkNewAge
05-11-2024 8:16 PM


Re: Fact checking the claim that murder rates go up with strong state gun control legisla
LNA writes:
TELL ME ABOUT HOW LOGICAL IT IS TO THINK TRUMP MATTERS WHEN YOU HAVE GOVERNORS AND STATE LEGISLATURES.
Trump was being used a proxy for the overall political leanings of the state. Gun control issues go way back, even back to the age when Republicans were almost normal.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 890 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-11-2024 8:16 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 895 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-19-2024 9:12 PM Taq has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2463
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 895 of 943 (918713)
05-19-2024 9:12 PM
Reply to: Message 894 by Taq
05-13-2024 10:48 AM


Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
I am (almost) going to totally change the subject, for a bit.
My post will be about Maine.
(However
(I am going to see if my post amount gets raised, so I can EVENTUALLY engage a gun debate. I have always asked for data on the amount of rifle suicides, and it seems there are finally some data coming in - per journal research. It seems most under-18 gun suicides are from rifles, as are most rural suicides. But overall, rifles are only around 28% of gun suicides.)
(Rifles are allowed to be carried OPEN - even in New York City. No state requires a license or check to buy a rifle - it is an instant purchase, though (at least) New York City requires a license)
(I plan on posting the exact percentage of gun ownership rate for every state, plus the suicide rate for every state, and the percentage of suicides from "guns")
(I doubt I will be able to find respective state data that makes a distinction between rifles and guns, however)
Now, Maine:
Why is Maine important?
Trump lost to Biden, in 2020, 306 to 238 per the Electoral College count.
Redistricting, post census, makes it 303 to 241, per 2024 weight measures.
Trump is solidly ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Most would grant Trump those three states, so it is now a 270 to 268 race.
The Nebraska redistricting only reduced Biden's win in the Omaha-based district 2, down to 6.4%, from 6.7%, so Omaha is probably going to give Biden its electoral vote.
We must look to the anti-war, pro-gun, (old school) moderate state of Maine.
(Along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin)
Maine is a state full of anti-war progressives, independents, and moderate/liberal Republicans.
It is the type of state that will be "moderate" in the sense that it will reject denial of the 20th genocide against the Jewish people - BET ON IT!
It is a very rural state, and rural folks typically will - post internet age - research via the internet, often using satellite web connections. It tends to result in anti-war candidates winning the party primaries, among rural votes. Ron Paul, for example, drew his support, in 2008 & 2012, from mainly rural voters, and college towns. (His worst showing was in evangelical constituencies and precincts). The political map, saw Ron Paul win more land area, in 2012, than all other candidates combined, but he only got about 15% of the vote. Even in 2008, when he only got 10% of the vote, he did about the same as McCain in land area wins.
Obama (08) mopped the floor, verses Hillary Clinton, in land area wins. Likewise Sanders, in 2016.
Maine has two districts, including the most rural district in the country - district two.
It is probably the most anti-war district in the country.
It is a district immune to mainstream media peer-pressuring.
Democrats won district two in every election from 1992 to 2012, though previously only a few times (1964 and perhaps during the depression era).
Trump won it by 11% in 2016, and by 7% in 2020.
Redistricting made it a 5% Trump win.
Biden won Maine by 9.1%, due to a 23% win in the moderate-liberal district 1.
(21% win, post redistricting)
Nationwide, Trump lost by 4.5%, 50.3% to 46.9%, so Maine did vote 4.6% more Democratic than the nation, in 2020.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton only won Maine by about 3.5%, and many feel it was due to the 5.7% third-party/independent vote nationwide, which was even large in Maine's vote share.
Hillary Clinton had the advantage of being pro-choice, and Maine is a pro-choice state (but a bit less so than New Hampshire and Vermont).
But, Hillary Clinton was pro-war, and that fact combined with the third-party/independent candidates available clearly dented Hillary Clinton.
Biden had little problem with non Democratic/Republican candidates, in 2020, and he appeared to be more moderate on war/peace issues than Hillary Clinton.
ABORTION ISSUE HURTS REPUBLICANS IN MAINE?
It typically does, but Trump seems to be in a better position than any Pro Life Republican ever was, and it is - ironically - due to Roe v Wade being overturned.
Trump supports states choosing their own laws, and polls show 49% agree, while 14% want anti-choice/pro life congressional/[presidential actions AND 37% want national Pro Choice legislation.
Abortion probably is no longer a liability in Maine, even though Pro Choice voters outnumber Pro Life voters two-to-one in Maine.
(In the vital state of Michigan, by comparison. a statewide referendum, in 2022, showed us that 43% of voters supported a ban on abortion, while 57% opposed)
POLLS:
Poll Ending April 21
(John Zogby Strategies)
Maine (statewide)
Trump 46%
Biden 45%
Polls ending Feb 14
(Pan Atlantic Research)
Maine (statewide)
Trump 38%
Biden 32%
(district 1)
Biden 39%
Trump 31%
(district 2)
Trump 45%
Biden 25%
So, it looks like the well-informed state of Maine might actually give Trump its two STATEWIDE electoral votes.
That would give Trump a 270 to 268 win.
The Democratic incumbent, in district two is in trouble also. Congressman Golden recently came out in favor of an assault weapon ban, after a mass shooting in his district. His two potential GOP challengers are both vocal Trump supporters (unlike past general election GOP opponents), and are making his gun control support a major issue.
I would assume most would predict Biden does the usual thing Democratic presidential candidates do - which is to win the general election statewide vote in Maine.
But will he?
I rate Maine as the most important state to watch in 2024, and give Trump a slightly better chance here, than in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I give Trump a 45% chance to win Michigan and perhaps a 40-45% chance in Maine.
I give Trump a 51% chance to win one of either Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
And a 60% chance to win all three of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
We all might find out why the Maine "Democratic" party used its statewide office-holders to legally ban Trump's name from appearing on the ballot (the U. S. Supreme Court had to step in to restore democracy, earlier in the year).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 894 by Taq, posted 05-13-2024 10:48 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 896 by Admin, posted 05-20-2024 7:01 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 898 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 12:38 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
Admin
Director
Posts: 13075
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 896 of 943 (918716)
05-20-2024 7:01 AM
Reply to: Message 895 by LamarkNewAge
05-19-2024 9:12 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
LamarkNewAge writes in Message 895:
(I am going to see if my post amount gets raised, so I can EVENTUALLY engage a gun debate.
Your message was comprehensible, so I have removed your post limit.
But I counted 53 one sentence/fragment paragraphs, and that approach contributed in large part to many of your earlier posts being incomprehensible. For example, you say:
Maine has two districts, including the most rural district in the country - district two.

It is probably the most anti-war district in the country.

It is a district immune to mainstream media peer-pressuring.

Democrats won district two in every election from 1992 to 2012, though previously only a few times (1964 and perhaps during the depression era).

Trump won it by 11% in 2016, and by 7% in 2020.

Redistricting made it a 5% Trump win.
A huge improvement would be:
Maine has two districts, including the most rural district in the country - district two. It is probably the most anti-war district in the country, immune to mainstream media peer-pressuring. Democrats won there in every election from 1992 to 2012, though previously only a few times (1964 and perhaps during the depression era). Trump won it by 11% in 2016, and by 7% in 2020, and redistricting has made it a 5% Trump win.

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
 Message 895 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-19-2024 9:12 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 897 by xongsmith, posted 05-20-2024 12:33 PM Admin has replied

  
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2598
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 5.6


Message 897 of 943 (918722)
05-20-2024 12:33 PM
Reply to: Message 896 by Admin
05-20-2024 7:01 AM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
i disagree. what with Bill Gates' hatred of Linux how can we be sure if a new line is a new line? we look at the preview. i myself with my cataracts have more trouble decyphering your version.

"I'm the Grim Reaper now, Mitch. Step aside."
Death to #TzarVladimirtheCondemned!
Enjoy every sandwich!

- xongsmith, 5.7dawkins scale


This message is a reply to:
 Message 896 by Admin, posted 05-20-2024 7:01 AM Admin has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 902 by Admin, posted 05-20-2024 2:47 PM xongsmith has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 10139
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 898 of 943 (918723)
05-20-2024 12:38 PM
Reply to: Message 895 by LamarkNewAge
05-19-2024 9:12 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
LNA writes:
We must look to the anti-war, pro-gun, (old school) moderate state of Maine.
Then Maine is going to have a tough time finding a candidate since Trump supports sending military aid to Israel, as far as I am aware.
Also, Republicans are the only group that has a majority supporting military aid to Israel:
Trump is solidly ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
I think most people agree that the polls are broken. One thing for sure, they really don't mean anything until at least October, the time where most voters actually start paying attention to the presidential race.
It typically does, but Trump seems to be in a better position than any Pro Life Republican ever was, and it is - ironically - due to Roe v Wade being overturned.
Just look at all the Republicans running away from total abortion bans, something they were for less than a decade ago. Trump is trying to play it both ways, and in doing so he loses way more votes than he gains. When he says that he doesn't back a federal ban on abortion he loses a good chunk of his base. When he says that he is leaving it up to the states he loses a lot of independents who want those rights protected at the federal level. Trump has to get both the independents and his entire base. Right now, he can't even get more than 80% of his base in the primaries against an opponent that dropped out 2 months ago.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 895 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-19-2024 9:12 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 899 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2024 2:19 PM Taq has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2463
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 899 of 943 (918725)
05-20-2024 2:19 PM
Reply to: Message 898 by Taq
05-20-2024 12:38 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Republicans have tended to (always) waffle on what they would legislatively do. So, I don't agree much with your description of past Republican stances.
My biggest concern is that we have somehow come to feel that the constitution can be amended by a simple majority vote - at the state level anyway.
The Asian-American star of Star Trek (the old one) seemed to be alarmed by the California constitution being overturned by a 52% vote, in 2008.
Is the guy still alive? He was about 75 in 2008.
He was gay and married, but he lost his constitutional rights the same day we voted for the first ever black president. He knew he would get his rights back from the same bare-majority that took them away - perhaps in 2 to 4 years (voters were swinging toward pro-gay-rights positions, it was only a matter of time). But, he was concerned about the constitutional issue being reduced to a least-common denominator popularity contest.
Michigan just voted 56.66% to write a pre-viability abortion right (minus "mental health" considerations) into the constitution. The media was all for promoting the constitutional change. Big donors from New York & California made sure there was a good promotional for the change.
Good thing it is not a supporting supporting electorate, huh?
Democracy has its limits.
Hamas won one election, then ended all future elections in Gaza - and only after a bloody civil war with the PLO.
Real democracy has a constitution WITH COURTS. WITH A MILITARY. With enforcement.
Look at Gaza.
It was part of Egypt from 1949 to 1967, but no voting rights were granted. Israel occupied it from 1967 to 2006, but no voting rights. A Palestinian state it became - a few decades back.
But no constitutional army offered any real rights.
It is an open air prison that the world rejects, and neighbors want caged up. A bloody mess.
Our Democracy is fragile but we do at least try to implement constitutional principles.
Overseas policy is another matter, and the biggest question is whether we:
A ) really are making the world safer for peace and freedom
Or:
B ) are making matters worse
(Plus, can we afford to keep sending $100 billion every few months to Ukraine and a bit to Israel)
You asked about Maine voters.
I suspect that they see both parties as pro-war, but Trump will be seen as the most relevant opposition to a total-war policy.
The last two polls - in Maine 2 - had Biden getting no more than 28% & Trump getting no less than 42%.
Are the polls too early?
They could very well be, as Biden got 45% in 2020.
But, voters have learned alot since 2016 and 2020, so you agree that - chronologically - we are later than November 2020, right?
Trump held Hillary Clinton to a 2.9% statewide win in Maine, in 2016. Trump lost district 1 by about 15.5% , but beat Hillary by about 10.6% in district 2.
The big question is whether Trump can make the opposite ends meet. Maine might swing enough; the volatility of the electorate can be demonstrated - Trump outperforms other Republicans (Susan Collins is 70 years old and won her Senate seat when she was only 43, so she is an institution and an anomaly).
Look at how Nebraska district 2 swung.
Bush won by 26 points in 2000, Dole won by 16 in 1996.
Obama won it in 2008.
Republicans redrew the district - in 2012 - to give McCain a 4% win, and Romney won by 7.5%.
But Hillary Clinton held Trump to a 2% win in 2016, and Biden won by 6.7%!
Things can swing.
You are correct that things are still swinging around.
Biden is clearly going to increase his 64% support among black voters, so add 3% to his national vote above current polling.
I would give him a few points among Hispanics also.
Biden is easily +5 when one looks at the difference between the actual national popular vote and current polling.
Hillary won 48.2% to 46.1%
Biden won 50.3% to 46.9%
Trump will have to half Biden's 4.46% popular vote margin to win.
Trump might just do it in Maine.
A win in Nebraska 2 could do it, and it is a +3% Republican seat - based on typical voting patterns of the well-studied Nebraska voters. But moderate Republicans are not fans of Trump. The district has a bit more, of them, than Trump would like to have. Nebraska came within one vote, around 2017, of having the 2/3s of the legislature support ending the district split voting. One moderate Republican said he would cast the deciding vote to end the split if his fellow Republicans supported Medicaid expansion. They did not!
It might just be the decision that saves Biden.
If all else stays the same, plus Trump wins Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona.
Taq:
You say voters are not sure what they want so early.
May 20, 2004 (-Taq-)
We shall see what happens, and I will be watching.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 898 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 12:38 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 900 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2024 2:24 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 903 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 3:15 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2463
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 900 of 943 (918726)
05-20-2024 2:24 PM
Reply to: Message 899 by LamarkNewAge
05-20-2024 2:19 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
I am not on my laptop at home, but on my phone.
One line was supposed to say - of Michigan voters -, "Good thing it was not a SEGREGATION supporting electorate, huh".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 899 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2024 2:19 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2463
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.2


Message 901 of 943 (918727)
05-20-2024 2:47 PM


A shout out to Republicans in Nebraska.
The Republican members of the legislature just voted 3 to 1 against ending the split vote Electoral College system.
It might be the difference in a 270-268 race (polls show a 270 to 268 race, for Biden presently).
Many Republicans stood up for Obama, after the state legislature - post 2010 census - voted to remove Democratic leaning Bellevue from district 2.
The change remained, but Republicans and Democrats joined to make sure politics stays out of the redistricting process, in future years.
A redistricting process was changed, to remove politicians and to only involve independent commissioners.
District 2 is surrounded by heavily Republican rural areas and the district could easily be redrawn to favor Trump by perhaps 6 to 7 points.
Republicans have been attacked by Democrats and Trump should be ashamed of himself for taking the low road ; requesting Nebraska change it's laws to manipulate the presidential outcome is disgraceful, especially considering the entire world of decent people were sympathetic to Trump, after the democracy-ending stunt Maine Democrats darn-near pulled off.
In a coup-like atmosphere, Trump fanned the flames, and he lost the high ground.
On behalf of the democracy, I think Nebraska Republicans deserve a lot of credit, for sending a message that democracy is fragile and must be worth defending.
(Trump might be able to claim his request was legal and not dangerous in itself - but considering the dangerous climate, he should have known better)

  
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