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Author Topic:   2024 US Presidential Election
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 887 of 1148 (918578)
05-10-2024 3:33 PM
Reply to: Message 883 by Percy
05-10-2024 7:01 AM


Holding Percy to his high standards: The Firearm Issue
I will come back to your minimizing the Holocaust denialism, but let me get to your maximalism on guns, first:
I tend to find the "gun control" issue to be annoying (It is falsely named "Gun Control" as the proponents only propose HANDGUN control THUS IGNORING the fact that rifles are the main killers - specifically animals), and for many reasons. Cancer kills 600,000 people (Americans that is) and a solution to most cancer deaths is thousands of years away.
The (hand)gun issue is an overblown "old age" distraction, and a waste of time AT BEST. A horrible distraction.
BUT YOU CALLED FOR RAISING THE LEVEL OF DIALOGUE
ADDRESS THESE ISSUES THEN:
1) Is it true that states with the toughest laws really have lower gun events?
See the anti gun article:
How Gun Laws In New Mexico Compare To Other States
Grant Suneson
June 7 2020
Special Report
The bottom of article has a smooth scrolling chart of ALL fifty states.
Is scores each state by:
(2020 data CDC used)
2020 Grade (Alabama, Arkansas, Alabama, Arizona get a "F")
Gun Law States Rank
Gun Death Rate per 100k
Gun Death Rate Rank
Total Gun Deaths
New Mexico has the 18th toughest gun laws ("C+"), but the 4th highest death rate at 22 per 100,000 residents
Next issue for you to raise us to:
2) SUICIDES RELATED?
CNN
States With The Most Gun Violence Share One Trait
Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf
May 26,2022
quote:
Most gun deaths are suicides. In 2020, 54% of gun deaths in the US were suicides... according to a Pew Research Center analysis of CDC data.
I saw other analysis that said most gun deaths were homicides, elsewhere.
But the suicide dichotomy is something that HIGHER LEVEL OF DIALOGUE-Standards demand we parse out.
More on that later.
CNN said California has a gun death rate at 8.5 per 100k while Texas was at 14.2.
We should ask what Colorado is at in total Gun Deaths then parse out Suicides and Homicides (plus accidents).
Colorado has tough gun control and is, like New Mexico, between Texas and California.
I would suggest California has fewer young people than Texas, for one thing. Per 100k people.
SUICIDE STUFF
THE AFSP site says:
Suicide is 11th leading cause of death
48,183 in 2021
14.04 per 100k
132 per day
Male:female 3.9:1
White men 69.68%
Fire Arms 54.64%
Now, I have seen other data showing drug overdose deaths and deliberately poisoning oneself to be leading causes of suicide.
See EurekAlert
Death By Suicide
8-Feb-2021
Most sources say guns are the tool of choice for suicide, and I will reluctantly allow that, though political stances might influence the acceptance of a highly questionable statistic.
The AFSP site has a revealing color-coded graph which shows a national map displaying the amount and locations of suicides by frequency. West of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas the increase is almost everywhere. Otherwise, only Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine are striking.
quote:
Between 2018 and 2021, suicide rates were highest in the region that includes Alaska and the western to northwestern United States except in southern California and parts of Washington.
Rural areas have much higher suicides than urban areas.
White men are around 73% of suicides, it seems.
So 35% of suicides are white men, often rural.
FOR PERSPECTIVE:
The total homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 in 2014, and 7.8 in 2020.
Suicides VIA GUN seem to slightly outnumber GUN homicide deaths.
More on that later next:
NEXT PERCY ISSUE:
3) "TRUMP STATES" Misery index
Look at the suicide score
Suicide states by rank and deaths per 100k (2020 CDC)
1 Wyoming 32.3 (Trump +3)
2 Montana 32.0 (Trump 3)
3 Alaska 30.8 (Trump 3)
4 New Mexico 25.0 (Biden 5)
5 South Dakota 23.2 (Trump 3)
6 Colorado 22.8 (Biden 9?)
7 Oklahoma 22.1 (Trump 7)
8 Nevada 21.5 (Biden 6)
9 North Dakota 20.8 (Trump 3)
10 West Virginia 20.6 (Trump 5)
11 Arkansas 20.6 (Trump 4)
12 Idaho 20.5 (Trump 4)
13 Vermont 20.3 (Biden 3)
14 Utah 20.1 (Trump 6)
15 Oregon 19.5 (Biden 7/8?)
16 Maine (Biden 3 Trump 1)
17 Arizona (Biden 10/11)
The 1/3 worst suicide states seem to be a bit more in the Biden camp. Though Nevada and Arizona are close Biden states.
Suicides are around 15 per 100k and most seem to be gun deaths.
Homicides are the other half of gun deaths, and 8 per 100k.
Sticking with total suicides, you will like the ten lowest suicide states
1 Washington DC 6.2
2 New Jersey 7.1
3 New York 7.9
4 Massachusetts 8.0
5 Maryland 9.7
6 Connecticut 10
7 California 10.1
8 Rhode Island 10.3
9 ?
10 Virginia 13.2
Biden wins the least suicide states.
But these are states that many poor people can't afford to live in. Except Virginia. These tend to be states with an older population and the population is dropping.
This leads to my next point:
4) DEMOGRAPHICS AND UNIQUE SITUATIONS
Gun violence deaths might be a reflection of cultural situations.
Mexico has very tough gun laws, but high homicide rates.
In the United States, different regions have different situations.
Hawaii has islands where you can't live without (almost) an invitation. The police are many and tough per square mile. Few can afford Hawaii, and the culture is different.
That is a Biden state.
Look at Alaska:
A Trump state, which has a statewide-elected Eskimo Democrat representing the state in Congress.
The native culture would never dream of outlawing guns, nor would most "migrants" (whites).
It is a cold, high-suicide place BUT would suicides drop minus the guns?
Appalachian America is loaded with drug overdose and illicit drug deaths. Pills and poison can kill as well as guns, and people know it.
The murder rate exists, and the solution is to "ban guns", if you want to ban EVERYTHING - including rifles.
The total homicide rate was 6 per 100,000 in 2014, now it is 8 per 100k.
But why not "ban people"?
(This is not a joke,really)
(New Mexico has much worse gun death stats than Texas, so start with total bans on guns, then limit what people can do and where they can go, right?)
Why stop with guns?
Look at automotive deaths?
Ban vehicles.
Look at cancer deaths.
Look at heart disease deaths.
Ban and fight!
Brave zealots...
What about

This message is a reply to:
 Message 883 by Percy, posted 05-10-2024 7:01 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 888 by Percy, posted 05-10-2024 7:20 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 889 by Admin, posted 05-11-2024 7:37 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 890 of 1148 (918586)
05-11-2024 8:16 PM
Reply to: Message 889 by Admin
05-11-2024 7:37 AM


Fact checking the claim that murder rates go up with strong state gun control legisla
(I am on my phone, and it makes my English grammar difficult due to scrolling & vision issues)
I wonder why you did not go to the 24/7 Wall Street sight.
You were the one that ignored state gun control legislation, but you instead farted-over whether the state voted for Trump.
TELL ME ABOUT HOW LOGICAL IT IS TO THINK TRUMP MATTERS WHEN YOU HAVE GOVERNORS AND STATE LEGISLATURES.
GRANT SUNESON SCORED EVERY STATE WITH A GRADE:
(Score reflected toughest laws)
8 got "A"s
Massachusetts
Hawaii
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
California
Maryland
Illinois
(All were an "A-", except California)
B+ states:
Rhode Island
Washington (state)
B states:
Virginia
Delaware
C+states:
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Colorado
New Mexico
Nevada
C states:
Nebraska
Iowa
C- states:
Vermont
Florida
Michigan
Wisconsin
D states:
Indiana
North Carolina
Ohio
D- states:
Utah
Tennessee
F states:
New Hampshire
Maine
South Dakota
Texas
Idaho
North Dakota
West Virginia
Kansas
Arizona
Alaska
Wyoming
Montana
Arkansas
Missouri
Alabama
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Georgia
Indiana
Louisiana
Mississippi
Now I will look at the homicide rate using 47 states CDC numbers.
3 states will need the 2022 FBI rate.
Wikipedia has LIST OF US STATES AND TERRITORIES HOMICIDE RATE
2021 CDC and 2022 FBI stats are there.
The CDC used coroner reports which includes all killings, and ignores the legal definition of self defense.
Rankings (safest to most dangerous)
(CDC numbers except for 3 states - NH, Vermont, and Wyoming)
(Homicide deaths per 100,000)
Maine 1.7
New Hampshire (FBI) 1.8
Idaho 2.2
Massachusetts 2.3
Wyoming (FBI) 2.6
Utah 2.7
Hawaii 2.7
Iowa 3.2
Vermont (FBI) 3.4
North Dakota 3.4
Rhode Island 3.6
Nebraska 3.6
Montana 4.4
Washington 4.5
Minnesota 4.3
Connecticut 4.8
New York 4.8
New Jersey 4.8
Oregon 4.9
South Dakota 5.3
Colorado 6.3
Alaska 6.4
Kansas 6.4
Wisconsin 6.4
California 6.4
West Virginia 6.9
This covers the homicide rate for the first half.
Looks like it is mostly made up of F and D states.
I will cover the second half tomorrow, but tell me this:
Is the gun control claim that, STATE GOVERNMENT PASSING STRONG GUN CONTROL MEASURES MAKES FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HOMICIDE RATE COMPARED TO MORE LIMITED GUN CONTROL, accurate?
Is the claim:
Strongly supported by evidence?
Probably supported by the evidence?
Possibly supported by the evidence?
Not at all certain?
Probably not supported?
Probably Falsified?
Falsified?
7 choices.
(We have not looked at the bottom half of homicide states, mind you)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 889 by Admin, posted 05-11-2024 7:37 AM Admin has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 892 by Admin, posted 05-12-2024 7:09 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 894 by Taq, posted 05-13-2024 10:48 AM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 895 of 1148 (918713)
05-19-2024 9:12 PM
Reply to: Message 894 by Taq
05-13-2024 10:48 AM


Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
I am (almost) going to totally change the subject, for a bit.
My post will be about Maine.
(However
(I am going to see if my post amount gets raised, so I can EVENTUALLY engage a gun debate. I have always asked for data on the amount of rifle suicides, and it seems there are finally some data coming in - per journal research. It seems most under-18 gun suicides are from rifles, as are most rural suicides. But overall, rifles are only around 28% of gun suicides.)
(Rifles are allowed to be carried OPEN - even in New York City. No state requires a license or check to buy a rifle - it is an instant purchase, though (at least) New York City requires a license)
(I plan on posting the exact percentage of gun ownership rate for every state, plus the suicide rate for every state, and the percentage of suicides from "guns")
(I doubt I will be able to find respective state data that makes a distinction between rifles and guns, however)
Now, Maine:
Why is Maine important?
Trump lost to Biden, in 2020, 306 to 238 per the Electoral College count.
Redistricting, post census, makes it 303 to 241, per 2024 weight measures.
Trump is solidly ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Most would grant Trump those three states, so it is now a 270 to 268 race.
The Nebraska redistricting only reduced Biden's win in the Omaha-based district 2, down to 6.4%, from 6.7%, so Omaha is probably going to give Biden its electoral vote.
We must look to the anti-war, pro-gun, (old school) moderate state of Maine.
(Along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin)
Maine is a state full of anti-war progressives, independents, and moderate/liberal Republicans.
It is the type of state that will be "moderate" in the sense that it will reject denial of the 20th genocide against the Jewish people - BET ON IT!
It is a very rural state, and rural folks typically will - post internet age - research via the internet, often using satellite web connections. It tends to result in anti-war candidates winning the party primaries, among rural votes. Ron Paul, for example, drew his support, in 2008 & 2012, from mainly rural voters, and college towns. (His worst showing was in evangelical constituencies and precincts). The political map, saw Ron Paul win more land area, in 2012, than all other candidates combined, but he only got about 15% of the vote. Even in 2008, when he only got 10% of the vote, he did about the same as McCain in land area wins.
Obama (08) mopped the floor, verses Hillary Clinton, in land area wins. Likewise Sanders, in 2016.
Maine has two districts, including the most rural district in the country - district two.
It is probably the most anti-war district in the country.
It is a district immune to mainstream media peer-pressuring.
Democrats won district two in every election from 1992 to 2012, though previously only a few times (1964 and perhaps during the depression era).
Trump won it by 11% in 2016, and by 7% in 2020.
Redistricting made it a 5% Trump win.
Biden won Maine by 9.1%, due to a 23% win in the moderate-liberal district 1.
(21% win, post redistricting)
Nationwide, Trump lost by 4.5%, 50.3% to 46.9%, so Maine did vote 4.6% more Democratic than the nation, in 2020.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton only won Maine by about 3.5%, and many feel it was due to the 5.7% third-party/independent vote nationwide, which was even large in Maine's vote share.
Hillary Clinton had the advantage of being pro-choice, and Maine is a pro-choice state (but a bit less so than New Hampshire and Vermont).
But, Hillary Clinton was pro-war, and that fact combined with the third-party/independent candidates available clearly dented Hillary Clinton.
Biden had little problem with non Democratic/Republican candidates, in 2020, and he appeared to be more moderate on war/peace issues than Hillary Clinton.
ABORTION ISSUE HURTS REPUBLICANS IN MAINE?
It typically does, but Trump seems to be in a better position than any Pro Life Republican ever was, and it is - ironically - due to Roe v Wade being overturned.
Trump supports states choosing their own laws, and polls show 49% agree, while 14% want anti-choice/pro life congressional/[presidential actions AND 37% want national Pro Choice legislation.
Abortion probably is no longer a liability in Maine, even though Pro Choice voters outnumber Pro Life voters two-to-one in Maine.
(In the vital state of Michigan, by comparison. a statewide referendum, in 2022, showed us that 43% of voters supported a ban on abortion, while 57% opposed)
POLLS:
Poll Ending April 21
(John Zogby Strategies)
Maine (statewide)
Trump 46%
Biden 45%
Polls ending Feb 14
(Pan Atlantic Research)
Maine (statewide)
Trump 38%
Biden 32%
(district 1)
Biden 39%
Trump 31%
(district 2)
Trump 45%
Biden 25%
So, it looks like the well-informed state of Maine might actually give Trump its two STATEWIDE electoral votes.
That would give Trump a 270 to 268 win.
The Democratic incumbent, in district two is in trouble also. Congressman Golden recently came out in favor of an assault weapon ban, after a mass shooting in his district. His two potential GOP challengers are both vocal Trump supporters (unlike past general election GOP opponents), and are making his gun control support a major issue.
I would assume most would predict Biden does the usual thing Democratic presidential candidates do - which is to win the general election statewide vote in Maine.
But will he?
I rate Maine as the most important state to watch in 2024, and give Trump a slightly better chance here, than in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I give Trump a 45% chance to win Michigan and perhaps a 40-45% chance in Maine.
I give Trump a 51% chance to win one of either Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
And a 60% chance to win all three of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
We all might find out why the Maine "Democratic" party used its statewide office-holders to legally ban Trump's name from appearing on the ballot (the U. S. Supreme Court had to step in to restore democracy, earlier in the year).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 894 by Taq, posted 05-13-2024 10:48 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 896 by Admin, posted 05-20-2024 7:01 AM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 898 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 12:38 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 899 of 1148 (918725)
05-20-2024 2:19 PM
Reply to: Message 898 by Taq
05-20-2024 12:38 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Republicans have tended to (always) waffle on what they would legislatively do. So, I don't agree much with your description of past Republican stances.
My biggest concern is that we have somehow come to feel that the constitution can be amended by a simple majority vote - at the state level anyway.
The Asian-American star of Star Trek (the old one) seemed to be alarmed by the California constitution being overturned by a 52% vote, in 2008.
Is the guy still alive? He was about 75 in 2008.
He was gay and married, but he lost his constitutional rights the same day we voted for the first ever black president. He knew he would get his rights back from the same bare-majority that took them away - perhaps in 2 to 4 years (voters were swinging toward pro-gay-rights positions, it was only a matter of time). But, he was concerned about the constitutional issue being reduced to a least-common denominator popularity contest.
Michigan just voted 56.66% to write a pre-viability abortion right (minus "mental health" considerations) into the constitution. The media was all for promoting the constitutional change. Big donors from New York & California made sure there was a good promotional for the change.
Good thing it is not a supporting supporting electorate, huh?
Democracy has its limits.
Hamas won one election, then ended all future elections in Gaza - and only after a bloody civil war with the PLO.
Real democracy has a constitution WITH COURTS. WITH A MILITARY. With enforcement.
Look at Gaza.
It was part of Egypt from 1949 to 1967, but no voting rights were granted. Israel occupied it from 1967 to 2006, but no voting rights. A Palestinian state it became - a few decades back.
But no constitutional army offered any real rights.
It is an open air prison that the world rejects, and neighbors want caged up. A bloody mess.
Our Democracy is fragile but we do at least try to implement constitutional principles.
Overseas policy is another matter, and the biggest question is whether we:
A ) really are making the world safer for peace and freedom
Or:
B ) are making matters worse
(Plus, can we afford to keep sending $100 billion every few months to Ukraine and a bit to Israel)
You asked about Maine voters.
I suspect that they see both parties as pro-war, but Trump will be seen as the most relevant opposition to a total-war policy.
The last two polls - in Maine 2 - had Biden getting no more than 28% & Trump getting no less than 42%.
Are the polls too early?
They could very well be, as Biden got 45% in 2020.
But, voters have learned alot since 2016 and 2020, so you agree that - chronologically - we are later than November 2020, right?
Trump held Hillary Clinton to a 2.9% statewide win in Maine, in 2016. Trump lost district 1 by about 15.5% , but beat Hillary by about 10.6% in district 2.
The big question is whether Trump can make the opposite ends meet. Maine might swing enough; the volatility of the electorate can be demonstrated - Trump outperforms other Republicans (Susan Collins is 70 years old and won her Senate seat when she was only 43, so she is an institution and an anomaly).
Look at how Nebraska district 2 swung.
Bush won by 26 points in 2000, Dole won by 16 in 1996.
Obama won it in 2008.
Republicans redrew the district - in 2012 - to give McCain a 4% win, and Romney won by 7.5%.
But Hillary Clinton held Trump to a 2% win in 2016, and Biden won by 6.7%!
Things can swing.
You are correct that things are still swinging around.
Biden is clearly going to increase his 64% support among black voters, so add 3% to his national vote above current polling.
I would give him a few points among Hispanics also.
Biden is easily +5 when one looks at the difference between the actual national popular vote and current polling.
Hillary won 48.2% to 46.1%
Biden won 50.3% to 46.9%
Trump will have to half Biden's 4.46% popular vote margin to win.
Trump might just do it in Maine.
A win in Nebraska 2 could do it, and it is a +3% Republican seat - based on typical voting patterns of the well-studied Nebraska voters. But moderate Republicans are not fans of Trump. The district has a bit more, of them, than Trump would like to have. Nebraska came within one vote, around 2017, of having the 2/3s of the legislature support ending the district split voting. One moderate Republican said he would cast the deciding vote to end the split if his fellow Republicans supported Medicaid expansion. They did not!
It might just be the decision that saves Biden.
If all else stays the same, plus Trump wins Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona.
Taq:
You say voters are not sure what they want so early.
May 20, 2004 (-Taq-)
We shall see what happens, and I will be watching.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 898 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 12:38 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 900 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2024 2:24 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied
 Message 903 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 3:15 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 900 of 1148 (918726)
05-20-2024 2:24 PM
Reply to: Message 899 by LamarkNewAge
05-20-2024 2:19 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
I am not on my laptop at home, but on my phone.
One line was supposed to say - of Michigan voters -, "Good thing it was not a SEGREGATION supporting electorate, huh".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 899 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2024 2:19 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 901 of 1148 (918727)
05-20-2024 2:47 PM


A shout out to Republicans in Nebraska.
The Republican members of the legislature just voted 3 to 1 against ending the split vote Electoral College system.
It might be the difference in a 270-268 race (polls show a 270 to 268 race, for Biden presently).
Many Republicans stood up for Obama, after the state legislature - post 2010 census - voted to remove Democratic leaning Bellevue from district 2.
The change remained, but Republicans and Democrats joined to make sure politics stays out of the redistricting process, in future years.
A redistricting process was changed, to remove politicians and to only involve independent commissioners.
District 2 is surrounded by heavily Republican rural areas and the district could easily be redrawn to favor Trump by perhaps 6 to 7 points.
Republicans have been attacked by Democrats and Trump should be ashamed of himself for taking the low road ; requesting Nebraska change it's laws to manipulate the presidential outcome is disgraceful, especially considering the entire world of decent people were sympathetic to Trump, after the democracy-ending stunt Maine Democrats darn-near pulled off.
In a coup-like atmosphere, Trump fanned the flames, and he lost the high ground.
On behalf of the democracy, I think Nebraska Republicans deserve a lot of credit, for sending a message that democracy is fragile and must be worth defending.
(Trump might be able to claim his request was legal and not dangerous in itself - but considering the dangerous climate, he should have known better)

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 904 of 1148 (918732)
05-20-2024 3:49 PM
Reply to: Message 903 by Taq
05-20-2024 3:15 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Clinton was getting 2 to 4 percent more support than Trump, in polls.
Just what happened.
Biden and Trump agree on Israel (whatever they (don't) understand about the problems and solutions,aside.
I was responding to your comment about Republican stances on abortion, which were never clear, but you said that they were.
As for 2022, I don't recall any big shocking results. Republicans did alot better in New York than expected, a bit worse elsewhere.
Most of the close Senate races swung the Democrats way.
Nothing big and no real surprises.
Kentucky voted to keep abortion rights in the constitution.
Most thought the vote would swing a bit against keeping them.
Michigan and Ohio voted 43% to end the constitutional right. Polls were very accurate.
I saw poll results match everything in 2022.
2020 did see Democrats do worse - in Senate races - than polls indicated.
Polls were right on in 2018.
I got every Senate races correct HERE AT EvC except Florida, and Florida was decided by 1/10%.
Polls showed Florida was a one point race, see my pastes in 2018. Scott verses Ben Nelson

This message is a reply to:
 Message 903 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 3:15 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 906 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 5:10 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 905 of 1148 (918733)
05-20-2024 3:57 PM
Reply to: Message 903 by Taq
05-20-2024 3:15 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Also, Trump was consistently ahead, in polls, in Maine-2, by 11%
He won 50 to 40, or by 10.7%.
Obama won 55-43 in 08 and 52-46 in 2012
Biden won 52-45 (51-46 after redrawn district)
Trump was ahead 42-28 back in October.
45 to 25 in Feb.
(Possibly back to a 14/15 point lead, as a Zogby poll has a closer race statewide in Maine)
Trump did the same as polls indicated in 2020 too.
The Susan Collins verses Sarah Gideon race did see Collins do much better than the polls indicated, in 2020, however.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 903 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 3:15 PM Taq has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 907 of 1148 (918735)
05-20-2024 6:29 PM
Reply to: Message 906 by Taq
05-20-2024 5:10 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Biden got 51.4%
The polls had him - in June - at 50.5%
Trump went from 41.3% - June 2020 - to 46.9
I'm not sure this is the big deal. Trump got 46.1% in 2016, with 3rd parties/independents getting 5.7%.
Experts do consider past state performances and past national performances when making predictions. Early projections look at actual poll results and then the template of typical performances to fill in gaps.
Hillary Clinton was always shown "scary" poll numbers in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Look at Bernie Sanders and his early 2020 warnings. Hillary Clinton was always doing worse in places like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. She was assuming that past state performances would ensure the unpopular Donald Trump could not win in the end.
She was ignoring the fact that Ohio was one of the more conservative states, and assumed Obama's performance was a vote based she could ultimately count on.
Hillary ignored the fact that Obama was opposed to gun control and that was a major reason he did so well in diverse places. She was massively ignorant of the war fatigue - infact political science studies credit Trump's anti war stance for his 2016 win. Trump also had trade policies that helped him in the rust belt, and no Republican ever had that dynamic at play.
Hillary Clinton rode a wave to "victory" that existed ONLY in her head (and the mainstream media). She was correct in seeing Trump as someone she could (COULD) beat, but she was oblivious to the fact that he was the ONLY Republican she could beat and that she was the only Democrat he would beat.
And she was ignorant of his relative strengths - infact, she understood just about nothing about the dynamics of the situation.
Republicans and abortion stances:
I don't remember you many Republicans calling for a human-life amendment. Many, if not most, "Pro Life" Republican candidates would support even the overturning Roe V Wade. When they would support such, they typically would say it is a states rights issue.
I never remember a single Pro Life Republican EVER supporting even a 24 week abortion ban, until perhaps 10 years ago, and many were reluctant to even do that.
There have been Republicans vote on statewide bans, though. Louisiana voted for a ban, via referendum, recently. West Virginia voted for a ban around a decade ago.
I doubt more than 10 to 12 states will get voters to agree to a ban before six weeks, and only 15 total - at most - would have voters be willing to approve even a six week (or less) ban.
Voters are doing about what was always expected of them.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 906 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 5:10 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 913 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 12:24 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 908 of 1148 (918738)
05-20-2024 8:04 PM
Reply to: Message 906 by Taq
05-20-2024 5:10 PM


2020 General Election: Maine. Trump vs. Biden RealClear final result
The RealClear politics average (plus weight techniques) gave the FINAL RESULT of Biden +8.7
Biden won by 9.06%
Granted, Biden was getting around 11 to 12 points in the final polls.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 906 by Taq, posted 05-20-2024 5:10 PM Taq has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 914 of 1148 (918752)
05-21-2024 2:58 PM
Reply to: Message 913 by Taq
05-21-2024 12:24 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Lindsay Graham proposed a 15 week abortion ban, in fall of 2022.
No other Senate Republican supported him.
Alex Jones attacked Graham as a "neocon" mole trying to hurt Republicans message of states rights.
Alex Jones said Graham was a troll secretly trying to hurt Republicans.
Before 2010 (and probably later), no Republicans ever had a national vote on a 24 week ban

This message is a reply to:
 Message 913 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 12:24 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 916 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 3:47 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 915 of 1148 (918754)
05-21-2024 3:36 PM
Reply to: Message 913 by Taq
05-21-2024 12:24 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
And, I had a typo in an older post.
I meant to say many/most Pro Life Republicans would not say they would even support overturning Roe v Wade.
They would dodge the issue, when asked.
(Democratic responses would typically go like this: "They won't do it, but they are a party that is appointing judges that will")
(Republicans would respond by saying they don't know what judges will do and they never ask them)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 913 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 12:24 PM Taq has not replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 917 of 1148 (918756)
05-21-2024 4:19 PM
Reply to: Message 916 by Taq
05-21-2024 3:47 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
Africa is the most anti-abortion continent, by far.
Google ABORTION POLL AFRICA NIGERIA
You might want to spare the Jim Crow stuff, if you want any credibility.
Demonstrate this:
Justice Byron White was a segregationist racist.
Jimmy Carter, in 2906 (?) said he was secretly Pro Life and against Roe v Wade.
Demonstrate that Jimmy Carter was "Old Guard"
Don't start showing MERCY! Go ahead and demonstrate...

This message is a reply to:
 Message 916 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 3:47 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 919 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 5:24 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 918 of 1148 (918757)
05-21-2024 5:20 PM


I did a FACT CHECK of Taq's claims.
When Lindsay Graham proposed a 15 week ban, in September 2022, every Senate Republican disagreed with him.
(Some House Republicans, like Liz Cheney, supported him)
Only one Senate candidate supported him:
Herschel Walker
It was nearly unanimous opposition.
Vocal opposition.
Now, 2024 developments:
Graham is at it again, as he is the lone Republican opposing Trump's explicit opposition to federal legislation.
Democrats (and it seems to be an official Democratic party claim) are claiming Graham's proposal is a proposal that the entire Republican party supports.
My custom FACT CHECK rates this Democratic party claim as false.
100% false.
100.0% false
Literally the 100% opposite of the truth.
(Yes...100%)
(Not 99.9%)
(A full 100)
An amazing example of a complete total untruth

Replies to this message:
 Message 921 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 5:33 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 2496
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.4


Message 920 of 1148 (918759)
05-21-2024 5:31 PM
Reply to: Message 919 by Taq
05-21-2024 5:24 PM


Re: Trump has consistently been ahead in Maine.
So the worldwide community of humans opposed to abortion is a white racist push to enslave blacks?
Canada is black.
The sky is red.
Democrats are honest.
Mexico is Anglo.
Africa is Celtic.
France is ethnic Brazilian
Republicans want a federal abortion ban.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 919 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 5:24 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 922 by Taq, posted 05-21-2024 5:39 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
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