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Author Topic:   Evolutionists improbable becoming probable argument
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


(3)
Message 71 of 98 (907911)
03-01-2023 6:14 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by mike the wiz
02-19-2023 8:12 AM


mike the wiz writes:
Imagine you had to get a heads on a coin toss one billion billion times consecutively.
Now, let's not go overboard on this thing, Mike. You don't need a billion billion consecutive coin tosses for what you're trying to demonstrate, just upending a bucketful of coins all at once is more than enough, and it's much easier to visualise.
The more important thing to note about your example is the mistake that you make by specifying in advance that all the coin tosses need to be heads. So, basically, you are saying that throwing a bucketload of coins on the floor and seeing them all end up heads is vastly improbable. But you forget that any other outcome is equally improbable. Yet, when looking at the seemingly random mess of coins on the floor, nobody is going to be surprised. Because, after all, some configuration had to happen. It's only amazing if it happens after you specify that exact configuration in advance, be it all heads, or any other permutation.
So, in conclusion: an event with a vanishingly small probability is not by definition impossible. A couple of hundreds of coins on the floor prove it.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by mike the wiz, posted 02-19-2023 8:12 AM mike the wiz has not replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


(1)
Message 75 of 98 (907917)
03-02-2023 1:31 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by mike the wiz
02-19-2023 8:12 AM


Another thing, Mike: you go into great detail with your examples of improbable scenarios, heaping complicating elaborations on top of each other in order to increase the improbability of what you are sketching. But you never mention even one detail about abiogenesis. You simply state that it is equally improbable as your fantastically improbable stories.
Have you thought about how many molecules bump into each other somewhere in the universe at any moment in time? Or have you given pause about how big the universe is and how much time there has been for molecules to react with each other? Those numbers really do dwarf your improbabilities to the point of them becoming rather mundane happenings. If you think a billion billion is a large number, think again. Now, I realise I'm also just stating this without precision, and you don't have to believe me, but you could at least think about abiogenesis in some more detail before you dismiss it as way too improbable, and therefore impossible.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by mike the wiz, posted 02-19-2023 8:12 AM mike the wiz has not replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


(1)
Message 77 of 98 (907971)
03-04-2023 4:10 AM
Reply to: Message 76 by Percy
03-02-2023 9:03 AM


Percy writes:
That's a total of 2 million random human mutations every day.
Percy, not to detract from your argument, but you're off by a factor of 10, because 400,000 x 50 = 20 million, not 2 million. If you do the same calculation with the correct number your result of 52% shoots up to 99.9%. So the maths is even more in your corner than you thought.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Percy, posted 03-02-2023 9:03 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 79 by Percy, posted 03-04-2023 9:23 AM Parasomnium has replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 80 of 98 (907976)
03-04-2023 9:34 AM
Reply to: Message 79 by Percy
03-04-2023 9:23 AM


My pleasure.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 79 by Percy, posted 03-04-2023 9:23 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
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