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Author Topic:   Rebuttal To Creationists - "Since We Can't Directly Observe Evolution..."
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3491
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.6


Message 151 of 250 (898241)
09-21-2022 12:24 PM
Reply to: Message 147 by Kleinman
09-21-2022 8:07 AM


Re: Video not available
Anyway, I like teaching biologists the physics and mathematics of biological evolution.
Really? You don't act like you like it, and you're not very good at it.
Prof Bullshitter writes:
Why so few transitional fossils (are there really any?)
Ah, now I understand why you're such a crappy teacher, it's all bullshit.
Prof Bullshitter writes:
when it takes a billion replications for each transitional adaptational step in the Kishony and Lenski experiments?
So misrepresenting the probability of beneficial mutations in two experiments on bacteria are your only lessons? You seem to think those two experiments represent everything there is to learn about biological evolution. You say that each of those mutations can only happen AFTER 1 billion replications and then the next mutation has to wait for ANOTHER billion replications and so on. I see now why most of the world's biologists don't pay any attention to you.
We know you're flattered to have gotten the email from Percy, but we all got it, he was just testing that function.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 147 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 8:07 AM Kleinman has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 154 by dwise1, posted 09-21-2022 12:51 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Kleinman
Member
Posts: 626
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 152 of 250 (898242)
09-21-2022 12:41 PM
Reply to: Message 148 by nwr
09-21-2022 10:52 AM


A response to Percy
This message is a response to Percy, now nwr. Sorry Percy, I clicked the wrong reply button.
Kleinman:
You seem to be good at formatting, I'll leave that to you.
Percy:
Oh, Professor Kleinman, you are too funny, talking of math while presenting no equations. I get it. You want us to create the equations ourselves.

Do you mean like
P(Ac)=((1-P(BeneficialA)mu)^n)^nGA=(1-P(BeneficialA)mu)^n*nGA ?
It looks so much prettier the say you format it. I notice you didn't put the greek letter "mu", you used "u". You should correct that.
Kleinman:
You do seem to be having some difficulty with physics and math.
Percy:
Oh, yes, Professor Kleinman, I have many problems with physics and math. In the mathemacian/physicist/engineer jokes, I was the engineer who proceeded half the distance to the beautiful woman on each strike of the clock, and I was the mathematician who let the fire burn once he knew there was a solution, and I was the physicist who thought that 9 not being a prime number could be experimental error.

I'm not familiar with your last two jokes. But I do think you finally get that biological evolutionary competition is a conservation of energy problem, not a conservation of space problem.
Kleinman:
For example, you seem to think that populations are competing for space.
Percy:
I am so embarrassed about my wrong guess that you meant lebensraum. Are they maybe competing for poker chips?

There's a lot of guessing and speculation that goes on in this topic and not very much systematic study and logic. I wasn't the first to describe biological competition as a conservation of energy process. The first time I encounter this idea was when I read this paper:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/...33847/pdf/pnas00072-0402.pdf
What I did was make this concept a bit simpler so that biologists and laymen could understand it.
Kleinman:
Percy has posted equation (5) from my paper:
The basic science and mathematics of random mutation and natural selection
Percy:
That would be this equation:
(Percy nicely formatted equation (5) here)
Kleinman:
And wants to know the difference between that equation and equation [3] from the Lenski team paper.
Distribution of fixed beneficial mutations and the rate of adaptation in asexual populations
Percy:
That would be this equation:

(Percy nicely formatted equation [3] from Lenski paper here)

You implied this equation was wrong when you said, "Their problem is that they are assuming that biological evolution obeys an exponential (or exponential-like) distribution function," in Message 59. But your equation has exponentials, too. You didn't provide any equations yourself, so first tell me if I've chosen the right equations, because it is very difficult to tell which equations you mean you when just post a link to a paper and do not specify which equation. If I selected the wrong equations then please post the correct ones.

And if I selected the correct equations then why don't they appear comparable, since one is probability for a single mutation and the other is just a distribution of probabilities across multiple mutations. Except for the distribution aspect, shouldn't these equations be very similar?



Lenski's equation [3] is not erroneous, it is just not the correct probability distribution equation for DNA evolutionary modification. Go back to the fundamentals of probability theory. Identify the random trial(s). In the random mutation process, the replication is the primary random trial with two possible outcomes, a mutation occurs or a mutation doesn't occur. There is a second random trial that also occurs in this process and that is the mutation itself which has possible outcomes of base substitutions, insertions, deletions, double insertions... Different probability distributions have a lot of similarities. For example, the Poisson distribution is a limiting case for the binomial distribution. Lenski might be able to get his exponential distribution to approximately fit his data but I think it is much more instructive to derive the correct distribution function(s) if you are able to. BTW, if Lenski and his team were to derive an "at least one" probability equation, it would be very similar to the one I derived. One last point, the DNA evolutionary process is actually a Markov random walk process. I derived a slightly different Markov model than biologists use. My model is a non-stationary non-equilibrium model which gives a good prediction of the distribution of variants for the Kishony experiment. This model also gives results consistent with my binomial probability model. If you want to read that paper, you can find it here:
The Kishony Mega-Plate Experiment, a Markov Process

Edited by Kleinman, : Msg should be directed to Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 148 by nwr, posted 09-21-2022 10:52 AM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5274
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 153 of 250 (898244)
09-21-2022 12:45 PM
Reply to: Message 149 by Percy
09-21-2022 10:53 AM


Re: Video not available
... and I was the physicist who thought that 9 not being a prime number could be experimental error.
My mathematician professor in a highly theoretical postgraduate computer science class (ie, very heavy on the math) told that joke to illustrate inductive reasoning in that an engineer had proven through inductive reasoning that all odd numbers are prime. He found that pattern with the numbers 1 through 13 at which point he took the inductive step. Yeah, 9 is not prime, but using his professional experience in statistical sampling he just ruled that one out as an outlier (there's always at least one in any sampling).
Many universities accept foreign students, in part so that they can charge them full tuition. We had several foreign students in our class, mainly Chinese. During the telling of that joke they were frantically taking notes on it, not realizing that it was a joke (his joke-telling was typical of math teachers; just consider Tom Lehrer). Similarly a senior engineer at work told of when he had been sent to China (or maybe Taiwan) to train them on the system that the company had sold them and he started a break by writing something on the board about being back in 5 minutes; he returned to find them hotly debating what that inscription was supposed to mean.
I am so embarrassed about my wrong guess that you meant lebensraum. Are they maybe competing for poker chips?
His inability to understand Lebensraum is indicative of far greater problems.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 149 by Percy, posted 09-21-2022 10:53 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 173 by Percy, posted 09-22-2022 9:06 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5274
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 3.4


(1)
Message 154 of 250 (898245)
09-21-2022 12:51 PM
Reply to: Message 151 by Tanypteryx
09-21-2022 12:24 PM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman writes:
Anyway, I like teaching biologists the physics and mathematics of biological evolution.
Really? You don't act like you like it, and you're not very good at it.
His is a typical creationist empty boast.
It looks so much like a creationist who boasted that he loves to teach evolutionists about their own theory, at which point he "taught us" that evolution is a snake laying an egg and a bird hatched out. Thirty years later that same creationist still knows nothing about what evolution is or how it works despite thirty years of his opponents repeatedly trying to explain it to him.
You can always tell a creationist, but you just cannot tell him anything.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 151 by Tanypteryx, posted 09-21-2022 12:24 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 155 by Tanypteryx, posted 09-21-2022 1:13 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3491
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.6


(1)
Message 155 of 250 (898249)
09-21-2022 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 154 by dwise1
09-21-2022 12:51 PM


Re: Video not available
dwise1 writes:
Tanypteryx writes:
Kleinman writes:
Anyway, I like teaching biologists the physics and mathematics of biological evolution.
Really? You don't act like you like it, and you're not very good at it.

His is a typical creationist empty boast.
Yep, and belittling his students doesn't seem like a successful strategy for someone dedicated to teaching, more like trying to inflate his own ego. The world's biologists don't seem to be beating a path to his door.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 154 by dwise1, posted 09-21-2022 12:51 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
Kleinman
Member
Posts: 626
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 156 of 250 (898251)
09-21-2022 1:21 PM
Reply to: Message 150 by Taq
09-21-2022 10:55 AM


Re: Apples and oranges
Kleinman:
What Lenski found is that it took billions of replications for each beneficial mutation to occur on his most fit lineage and Kishony found that it requires a colony size of a billion for a beneficial mutation to occur. This should not have been a surprise since beneficial (and all) mutations occur at a frequency of about 1/(mutation rate) replications.
Taq:
You are again assuming all adaptations are the same. They aren't. Let's take a look at a classic paper, the Lederbergs' plate replica paper:

Not at all, but use whatever reference you want and give us the correct mathematical explanation for the Kishony and Lenski experiments.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 150 by Taq, posted 09-21-2022 10:55 AM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 163 by Taq, posted 09-21-2022 6:11 PM Kleinman has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19989
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


(2)
Message 157 of 250 (898256)
09-21-2022 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 147 by Kleinman
09-21-2022 8:07 AM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman writes:
I like teaching biologists the physics and mathematics of biological evolution.
But you're not doing that. You're just challenging us to explain it.
Kleinman writes:
... fossil tea-leaf reading courses.
Y'see, that's where you lose all of your credibility, with silly creationist slogans like that.

"Oh no, They've gone and named my home St. Petersburg.
What's going on? Where are all the friends I had?
It's all wrong, I'm feeling lost like I just don't belong.
Give me back, give me back my Leningrad."
-- Leningrad Cowboys

This message is a reply to:
 Message 147 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 8:07 AM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 158 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 3:26 PM ringo has replied

  
Kleinman
Member
Posts: 626
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 158 of 250 (898258)
09-21-2022 3:26 PM
Reply to: Message 157 by ringo
09-21-2022 3:08 PM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman:
I like teaching biologists the physics and mathematics of biological evolution.
ringo:
But you're not doing that. You're just challenging us to explain it.

OK, why does combination therapy work for treating HIV when the virus can very rapidly evolve resistance to single-drug therapy? If you have trouble with that challenge, you can read the mathematical explanation here:
The mathematics of random mutation and natural selection for multiple simultaneous selection pressures and the evolution of antimicrobial drug resistance
If you have trouble with the math, it is simply that HIV is no better at winning 3 lotteries than you are. You would have to buy about 1e15 tickets to win those 3 lotteries.
Kleinman:
... fossil tea-leaf reading courses.
ringo:
Y'see, that's where you lose all of your credibility, with silly creationist slogans like that.

Oh boy, ringo is going to explain the Kishony and Lenski experiments by reading fossil tea-leaves.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 157 by ringo, posted 09-21-2022 3:08 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 159 by ringo, posted 09-21-2022 3:34 PM Kleinman has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19989
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 159 of 250 (898260)
09-21-2022 3:34 PM
Reply to: Message 158 by Kleinman
09-21-2022 3:26 PM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman writes:
OK, why does combination therapy work for treating HIV when the virus can very rapidly evolve resistance to single-drug therapy?
There you go again, asking when you should be telling.
Kleinman writes:
If you have trouble with that challenge....
I have trouble with a teacher who demands that I teach HIM. If you wanna teach, teach.
Kleinman writes:
Oh boy, ringo is going to explain the Kishony and Lenski experiments by reading fossil tea-leaves.
So all you have is repetition of the same childish slogans.

"Oh no, They've gone and named my home St. Petersburg.
What's going on? Where are all the friends I had?
It's all wrong, I'm feeling lost like I just don't belong.
Give me back, give me back my Leningrad."
-- Leningrad Cowboys

This message is a reply to:
 Message 158 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 3:26 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 160 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 4:13 PM ringo has replied

  
Kleinman
Member
Posts: 626
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 160 of 250 (898263)
09-21-2022 4:13 PM
Reply to: Message 159 by ringo
09-21-2022 3:34 PM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman:
OK, why does combination therapy work for treating HIV when the virus can very rapidly evolve resistance to single-drug therapy?
ringo:
There you go again, asking when you should be telling.

OK, I'll tell you, but you have to promise that what happens on EVC Forum stays on EVC Forum.
Kleinman:
If you have trouble with that challenge....
ringo:
I have trouble with a teacher who demands that I teach HIM. If you wanna teach, teach.

OK, the first thing I want to teach you is life is demanding.
Kleinman:
Oh boy, ringo is going to explain the Kishony and Lenski experiments by reading fossil tea-leaves.
ringo:
So all you have is repetition of the same childish slogans.

Haven't you heard about teaching by repetition? And I'll explain to you why fossil tea-leaf reading is a pseudoscience like phrenology, astrology, or perpetual motion machines. Adaptive evolution requires hundreds of millions or billions of replications for each mutational adaptation step. We know that from the Kishony and Lenski experiments. Therefore, for a reptile population to evolve into a bird population would create vast numbers of transitional forms. To get an idea of how vast that population would have to be, if it only required 200,000 mutations for such a genetic transformation, it would require about 200,000 billion replications. You should have transitional forms coming out of your ears.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 159 by ringo, posted 09-21-2022 3:34 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 161 by ringo, posted 09-21-2022 4:29 PM Kleinman has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19989
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 161 of 250 (898267)
09-21-2022 4:29 PM
Reply to: Message 160 by Kleinman
09-21-2022 4:13 PM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman writes:
OK, I'll tell you, but you have to promise that what happens on EVC Forum stays on EVC Forum.
No deal. My motto is, If you have a secret, keep it. Don't expect me to keep your secrets for you.
If you wanna teach, teach.
Kleinman writes:
OK, the first thing I want to teach you is life is demanding.
Mick Jagger taught me that you can't always get what you want.
Kleinman writes:
Haven't you heard about teaching by repetition?
But you're not repeating a teaching. You're not teaching anything. You're just shouting slogans like, "Lock her up!"
Kleinman writes:
And I'll explain to you why fossil tea-leaf reading is a pseudoscience like phrenology, astrology, or perpetual motion machines.
That ship has sailed. We have understood the fossil record for centuries. It was geologist Lyell's book that prompted Darwin to ask the questions that he answered on The Origin of Species.
Don't waste our time trying to feed us a load of creationist crap.
Kleinman writes:
Therefore, for a reptile population to evolve into a bird population would create vast numbers of transitional forms.
It did.
Kleinman writes:
To get an idea of how vast that population would have to be, if it only required 200,000 mutations for such a genetic transformation, it would require about 200,000 billion replications. You should have transitional forms coming out of your ears.
You're ignoring the most important variable in your calculation: the rate of fossilization. It's pretty low.
And by the way, we only really need one transitional fossil to show that there was a transition.

"Oh no, They've gone and named my home St. Petersburg.
What's going on? Where are all the friends I had?
It's all wrong, I'm feeling lost like I just don't belong.
Give me back, give me back my Leningrad."
-- Leningrad Cowboys

This message is a reply to:
 Message 160 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 4:13 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 162 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 5:12 PM ringo has replied

  
Kleinman
Member
Posts: 626
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 162 of 250 (898271)
09-21-2022 5:12 PM
Reply to: Message 161 by ringo
09-21-2022 4:29 PM


Re: Video not available
Kleinman:
To get an idea of how vast that population would have to be, if it only required 200,000 mutations for such a genetic transformation, it would require about 200,000 billion replications. You should have transitional forms coming out of your ears.
ringo:
And by the way, we only really need one transitional fossil to show that there was a transition.

I saw that one you got from China.
Do you want to learn introductory probability theory? That's all you need to understand DNA evolution. I can teach you that.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 161 by ringo, posted 09-21-2022 4:29 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 167 by ringo, posted 09-21-2022 9:57 PM Kleinman has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 8586
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 163 of 250 (898276)
09-21-2022 6:11 PM
Reply to: Message 156 by Kleinman
09-21-2022 1:21 PM


Re: Apples and oranges
Kleinman writes:
Not at all, but use whatever reference you want and give us the correct mathematical explanation for the Kishony and Lenski experiments.
What does the Kishony and Lenski experiments have to do with the evolution of an arboreal ape into the the human species we see today?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 1:21 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 164 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 6:20 PM Taq has replied

  
Kleinman
Member
Posts: 626
From: United States
Joined: 10-06-2016


Message 164 of 250 (898277)
09-21-2022 6:20 PM
Reply to: Message 163 by Taq
09-21-2022 6:11 PM


Re: Apples and oranges
Kleinman:
Not at all, but use whatever reference you want and give us the correct mathematical explanation for the Kishony and Lenski experiments.
Taq:
What does the Kishony and Lenski experiments have to do with the evolution of an arboreal ape into the the human species we see today?

DNA evolution is DNA evolution.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 163 by Taq, posted 09-21-2022 6:11 PM Taq has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 165 by Taq, posted 09-21-2022 6:40 PM Kleinman has replied

  
Taq
Member
Posts: 8586
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 165 of 250 (898279)
09-21-2022 6:40 PM
Reply to: Message 164 by Kleinman
09-21-2022 6:20 PM


Re: Apples and oranges
Kleinman writes:
DNA evolution is DNA evolution.
So how does the evolution of DNA in the Kishony and Lenski experiments apply to DNA evolution in human evolution?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 164 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 6:20 PM Kleinman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 166 by Kleinman, posted 09-21-2022 7:20 PM Taq has replied

  
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