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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
Omnivorous
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Posts: 3998
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 5.9


Message 1126 of 1127 (918606)
05-15-2024 10:52 AM
Reply to: Message 1125 by Percy
05-15-2024 9:39 AM


Percy writes:
If right out of gate the sanctions were placed on somewhere north of 90% of trade then sanctions might have had a prayer of having an impact, but countries like the U.S. don't do sanctions that way. They do them gradually, giving the target country plenty of time to adapt and find alternatives.
Analogous critiques were made of U.S. military doctrine in the wake of the Vietnamese fiasco.
The 'tighten the screws' incremental approach led to years of increased U.S. combat forces on the ground; targeted bombing eventually ginned up to carpet bombing, and then the moral and environmental horrors of napalm and Agent Orange. By the time U.S. military strikes peaked, the tunnels were deep, and the targets (and the population) were hardened by years of war.
Thus we saw the "shock and awe" approach to Iraq, et al.
I should note that, if memory serves, our current sanctions on Russia are calculated to especially impact the power elite in Russia, relying on the corrolary notion that attempts to shift the burden to the Russian masses would make them restive.
I'm skeptical about both the precision of the targeting and the likelihood of a restive-under-Putin Russian people.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 1125 by Percy, posted 05-15-2024 9:39 AM Percy has not replied

  
Taq
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Posts: 10139
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.5


Message 1127 of 1127 (918612)
05-15-2024 4:57 PM
Reply to: Message 1125 by Percy
05-15-2024 9:39 AM


Percy writes:
I think there was an expectation on the part of most people that the sanctions we imposed on Russia almost two years ago would cover everything, or at least nearly everything. While I couldn't find the facts to back me up, my belief is that the initial set of sanctions covered less than 10% of our trade with Russia. I bet we still haven't reached the 50% level of sanctions on our trade with Russia.
I'm of two minds on it. Some of it is political posturing, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. If the US had done nothing, that would have looked like a green light in Moscow.
There is also the effect of US companies leaving Russia. This is especially true for the oil sector which relied heavily on major oil companies for production (e.g. Exxon, Shell, BP). Those companies left within days of the invasion because they wanted nothing to do with sanctions, and nothing to do with the image of working with Russia. Russia may not be able to keep those oil fields running in the long term without those western oil companies.
The Treasury Department says it has prohibited 80% of U.S. dealings with the Russian banking sector, but how many other sectors are there that weren't covered or were only partially covered.? Obviously there's the uranium sector, since that was only just added to the list. Any other metals or minerals or raw materials not on the sanctions list? Manufactured goods? Services? Software (Russian software engineers are incredibly cheap - while I was still working they were a commonly used resource).
‚Äč
If right out of gate the sanctions were placed on somewhere north of 90% of trade then sanctions might have had a prayer of having an impact, but countries like the U.S. don't do sanctions that way. They do them gradually, giving the target country plenty of time to adapt and find alternatives.
If I understand the global markets correctly, Russia is a major supplier of some very important commodities other than oil. If memory serves, they are big in the platinum metal series and in fertilizers, to name a couple. It's as much about the rest of the world needing time to find alternatives as it is Russia.
I will give Germany a lot of kudos for taking one for the team. They took a shot to the balls when they cut off Russian oil and especially natural gas.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1125 by Percy, posted 05-15-2024 9:39 AM Percy has not replied

  
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