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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
Percy
Member
Posts: 20948
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 856 of 878 (895689)
07-11-2022 10:11 AM
Reply to: Message 854 by Tangle
07-10-2022 2:30 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Tangle writes:
Percy writes:
There'd be a response, but I know I'd only be guessing at the specifics and the scale.
Speaking of vague ambiguities...
What is wrong with you? I wasn't vague. I was admitting I don't know. You don't know either. The difference between us is that you think you know when you don't, and you abuse people who try to determine if any actual knowledge or reasoning lies behind your seeming certainty about what are at heart unknowable things full of variables and uncertainty.
But yes, there'd be a response and then a counter-response and unless Putin retreats the world trickles eventually into total war in Europe. Which would be suicide for Putin (and bad for everyone).
Can I take this pronouncement to the bank? Does it really not occur to you that this is just one of many, many, many ways things could play out?
And what does "suicide for Putin" mean? Are you using "Putin" as just another way of referring to Russia, because until these last couple posts it was Russia you said would be committing suicide, not Putin. If you do mean Putin the man, then by suicide do you mean he'd lose his position of power in Russia? Something else?
The reality is that NATO provides a deterrent for Russian aggression. The deterrent isn't because a Russian attack on NATO would result in their or their leader's suicide, whatever that means. The deterrent is because NATO power is sufficient to thwart any Russian military effort against NATO countries.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 854 by Tangle, posted 07-10-2022 2:30 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 858 by Tangle, posted 07-11-2022 12:17 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20948
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 857 of 878 (895690)
07-11-2022 10:22 AM
Reply to: Message 855 by Tangle
07-11-2022 5:08 AM


Re: The War Drags On
You needn't quote numbers at me, I looked them up before I posted.
That post from me, like the previous, was in the context of your claim that a Russian attack on a NATO power would mean suicide for Russia, which means any air war would be over Russia. As I explained, Russia's sheer size and fighting within their own borders would make it very difficult for NATO to win that air war.
Not that it's simply numbers that matter of course and no one here has the faintest clue about how such a battle would be carried out.
Yes, precisely. Finally, a recognition that you can't know what will happen.
But it would take a new level of insanity for Putin to invade a NATO country, it would mobilise Europe and probably end in nuclear conflagration. Suicidal.
And then you revert right back to near certainty again. Inconsistent much?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 855 by Tangle, posted 07-11-2022 5:08 AM Tangle has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 864 by Phat, posted 07-13-2022 12:23 PM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8576
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 858 of 878 (895698)
07-11-2022 12:17 PM
Reply to: Message 856 by Percy
07-11-2022 10:11 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
What is wrong with you? I wasn't vague. I was admitting I don't know. You don't know either. The difference between us is that you think you know when you don't, and you abuse people who try to determine if any actual knowledge or reasoning lies behind your seeming certainty about what are at heart unknowable things full of variables and uncertainty.
This is becoming very boring. Neither of us know anything about military strategy, we're both guessing about what would happen when.
My position is that Russia driving tanks into a NATO country could ultimately be the beginning of ww3.Only a mad man would do it because it would be an obviously suicidal thing to do. I have no idea what you think would happen.
quote
Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.
Can I take this pronouncement to the bank?
I think they'd be as confused by that as you seem to be.
Does it really not occur to you that this is just one of many, many, many ways things could play out?
Um...yes, strangely that had occurred to me.
And what does "suicide for Putin" mean? Are you using "Putin" as just another way of referring to Russia, because until these last couple posts it was Russia you said would be committing suicide, not Putin. If you do mean Putin the man, then by suicide do you mean he'd lose his position of power in Russia? Something else?
For god's sake man, it's a metaphor, work it out. Do you think that I'm imagining Putin in the first tank across the border? Russia could not possibly succeed in invading a NATO country and in all likelihood it would result in the end of Putin one way or another too.
The reality is that NATO provides a deterrent for Russian aggression.
Do you really think I've missed this point? Could that be the reason that I keep saying that Putin will not drive a single tank or put a single boot in NATO territory?
The deterrent isn't because a Russian attack on NATO would result in their or their leader's suicide, whatever that means. The deterrent is because NATO power is sufficient to thwart any Russian military effort against NATO countries.
No shit! Well I never! Who knew etc etc.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 856 by Percy, posted 07-11-2022 10:11 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 860 by Percy, posted 07-11-2022 8:02 PM Tangle has not replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19720
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 859 of 878 (895702)
07-11-2022 12:35 PM
Reply to: Message 849 by Phat
07-09-2022 3:43 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
Russia cant match us in the skies.
That's what Hermann Meier said about Britain in 1940.

"Let me win. But if I cannot win, let me be brave in the attempt."
-- motto of the Special Olympians

This message is a reply to:
 Message 849 by Phat, posted 07-09-2022 3:43 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 861 by Phat, posted 07-12-2022 10:15 AM ringo has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20948
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 860 of 878 (895708)
07-11-2022 8:02 PM
Reply to: Message 858 by Tangle
07-11-2022 12:17 PM


Re: The War Drags On
There's a pattern emerging where you won't explain what you mean, but if someone else puts it into words you'll often acknowledge that that's what you mean, but not without issuing some snark, like how bloody obvious it was, etc.
I still have no idea what you mean by suicide, and maybe you don't either. You call it a metaphor later in your message, but that makes no sense. If there's a way in which that makes sense then you'll have to explain. Perhaps you mean it in the exaggerated way that a losing team might say to the other, "We'll kill you in the next game."
This is becoming very boring.
But you're remaining oh so pleasant. Good show. If you're truly becoming bored then just explain what you mean instead of spending all your effort avoiding it.
Neither of us know anything about military strategy, we're both guessing about what would happen when.
This misstates the case. You don't guess but declare, often with a fair amount of certainty (and ambiguity). I haven't guessed about anything. If I don't know what will happen then I say I don't know, or maybe list some likely possibilities, or perhaps say what I think most likely. It depends on context.
My position is that Russia driving tanks into a NATO country could ultimately be the beginning of ww3. Only a mad man would do it because it would be an obviously suicidal thing to do.
This a bundle of ambiguity. What does "could ultimately be the beginning of ww3" mean? That WW3 is one of the risks, one that could be avoided if things began moving in that direction? But then your next sentence calls it suicidal, which would only make sense if WW3 were inevitable after sending in the tanks. In the end I cannot figure out what you mean with any degree of confidence.
I have no idea what you think would happen.
There's a reason for that. I don't know what would happen. I could only discuss this as an array of possibilities. But we know exactly what you think would happen because you've told us, e.g., from Message 502:
Tangle in Message 502 writes:
But the very first act of any direct NATO action behalf of a NATO country under attack would be to take out Russian radar and ground to air missile sites, control centres and off-shore naval assets implicated in the Russian offences - wherever they're located. That's why Putin would never put boots in a NATO country, it would be world war and suicide.
I sincerely hope our initial responses would be much more considered and measured than that.
quote
Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.
Do you really think it would be deemed necessary that "the very first NATO act" be all the things you enumerated above? I grant it's one of the possibilities, but certainly one of the more extreme ones.
But yes, there'd be a response and then a counter-response and unless Putin retreats the world trickles eventually into total war in Europe. Which would be suicide for Putin (and bad for everyone).
Can I take this pronouncement to the bank?
I think they'd be as confused by that as you seem to be.
Yes, of course, abuse me instead of explaining why your certainty about what would happen.
Does it really not occur to you that this is just one of many, many, many ways things could play out?
Um...yes, strangely that had occurred to me.
Then why is it not reflected in anything you write?
For god's sake man, it's a metaphor, work it out. Do you think that I'm imagining Putin in the first tank across the border?
I guess no one should expect anything but mocking absurdity from you as a response to inquiries about what you actually mean. You seem to enjoy watching people struggle with your crypticness while you poke fun at them as they do.
Russia could not possibly succeed in invading a NATO country...
It does feel unlikely, but to analogize with American sports, it seemed unlikely that the Mets would beat the Orioles in 1969, or that the Patriots would beat the Rams in 2001. No doubt soccer and cricket have their long lists of unlikely victories. Saying "Russia could not possibly succeed in invading a NATO country" is typical of your kind of exaggerated overstatement. Yes it's unlikely, I agree, but "could not possibly succeed"? No.
...and in all likelihood it would result in the end of Putin one way or another too.
He *is* a dictator, you know, where job performance isn't usually the most important factor in retaining the position.
The reality is that NATO provides a deterrent for Russian aggression.
Do you really think I've missed this point?
What have you ever said that would lead me to believe that is something you grasped?
Could that be the reason that I keep saying that Putin will not drive a single tank or put a single boot in NATO territory?
Maybe you should look up deterrent.
--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Grammar.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 858 by Tangle, posted 07-11-2022 12:17 PM Tangle has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 16055
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


(2)
Message 861 of 878 (895709)
07-12-2022 10:15 AM
Reply to: Message 859 by ringo
07-11-2022 12:35 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Hermann Meier? Thats an Austrian Skier! Surely you mean Goering.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 859 by ringo, posted 07-11-2022 12:35 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 862 by ringo, posted 07-12-2022 11:40 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 863 by dronestar, posted 07-12-2022 11:43 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19720
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 862 of 878 (895710)
07-12-2022 11:40 AM
Reply to: Message 861 by Phat
07-12-2022 10:15 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
Surely you mean Goering.
I was going to say "Fat Hermann" but I decided to add another layer of mystery.

"Let me win. But if I cannot win, let me be brave in the attempt."
-- motto of the Special Olympians

This message is a reply to:
 Message 861 by Phat, posted 07-12-2022 10:15 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
dronestar
Member
Posts: 1396
From: usa
Joined: 11-19-2008


(1)
Message 863 of 878 (895712)
07-12-2022 11:43 AM
Reply to: Message 861 by Phat
07-12-2022 10:15 AM


Re: The War Drags On
quote
"Russia cant match us in the skies."
While Hermann Meier was a ski racer, he was undoubtedly talking about ski jumping.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 861 by Phat, posted 07-12-2022 10:15 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 16055
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 864 of 878 (895715)
07-13-2022 12:23 PM
Reply to: Message 857 by Percy
07-11-2022 10:22 AM


Re: The War Drags On
The Ukrainian conflict drags on. Many of us in the West were galvanized by the drama, spun into empathetic pleas of justice, from Vladimir Zalinsky. The villain--Putin--whose "special military operation" was directed against "Nazis in Ukraine." It seemed clear who the good guys were and who the bad guys were. Looking at our planet from a larger lens, the conclusion about who is good and who is "bad" seems to get murkier at times.
There are dissenting contrarians. Opinions. Articles that get me to think.
I will discuss two.
One is from a professor.
Why Mearsheimer is wrong about Russia and the war in Ukraine. Five arguments from Alexander Stubb.
John Mearsheimer has famously argued that the problems in Ukraine are the fault of the West.
Im looking for something that he wrote rather than videos. He seems to make sense, though I have yet to listen to the rebuttal from Alexander Stubb. (Both are professors)

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 857 by Percy, posted 07-11-2022 10:22 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 865 by DrJones*, posted 07-14-2022 12:56 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 866 by Percy, posted 07-14-2022 9:27 AM Phat has replied

  
DrJones*
Member
Posts: 2214
From: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Joined: 08-19-2004


(1)
Message 865 of 878 (895716)
07-14-2022 12:56 AM
Reply to: Message 864 by Phat
07-13-2022 12:23 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Looking at our planet from a larger lens, the conclusion about who is good and who is "bad" seems to get murkier at times.
not in this case. The good guys are the ones who are defending their homes from the bad guys.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 864 by Phat, posted 07-13-2022 12:23 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20948
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 866 of 878 (895720)
07-14-2022 9:27 AM
Reply to: Message 864 by Phat
07-13-2022 12:23 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
There are dissenting contrarians. Opinions. Articles that get me to think.
I was stunned at this. Articles? You read articles? Then I checked the link. It's a YouTube video.
One is from a professor.
Why Mearsheimer is wrong about Russia and the war in Ukraine. Five arguments from Alexander Stubb.
John Mearsheimer has famously argued that the problems in Ukraine are the fault of the West.
Leave it to you to find Mearsheimer. This is the guy who said, "Ukraine is going to get wrecked" in the same lecture where he later said, "If you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is to encourage it to try to conquer Ukraine. Putin is much too smart to try that."
It seems odd that you summarize Mearsheimer's views but post the video rebuttal from Stubb. Here's a link to the Mearsheimer lecture that Stubb is commenting on: The causes and consequences of the Ukraine war A lecture by John J. Mearsheimer
You're still playing the game of "How do I choose who to listen to?" and your criteria is whoever catches your interest by getting you most excited. You're driven by emotion instead of information.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 864 by Phat, posted 07-13-2022 12:23 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 867 by Phat, posted 07-15-2022 3:31 PM Percy has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 16055
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003


Message 867 of 878 (895726)
07-15-2022 3:31 PM
Reply to: Message 866 by Percy
07-14-2022 9:27 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Percy writes:
It seems odd that you summarize Mearsheimer's views but post the video rebuttal from Stubb.
To more fully summarize Mearsheimer, he says that we need to understand the History of Russian cultural differences and to also realize that Ukraine was trained by NATO for years on how to fight.
It would be the equivalent of Canada seeking to join BRIC. The US would NOT put up with it.
Percy writes:
You're still playing the game of "How do I choose who to listen to?" and your criteria is whoever catches your interest by getting you most excited. You're driven by emotion instead of information.
Guilty as charged, though I think you are driven by politics over substance. As an example, you totally vilified Peter Schiff simply because Irwin was his Father. That prevented you from even desiring to hear what Schiff has to say---chiefly because he dealt in Gold and was a Libertarian. None of that information should have caused you to reject hearing out Schiffs argument.
And Financial Apologetics has a lot to do in a larger context with the War in Ukraine and global financial restructuring. Though true that I am driven by emotion, I end up finding information that is swept under the rug and ignored by mainstream economic (Federal) information.
I dont mean to sound like a whacky conspiracy theory advocate, but I stand by my gut instinct over who has the correct explanations and understanding of global finance. Another financial apologist, George Gammon, spells it out on a whiteboard in exquisite detail. The problem is, I cant get anyone here to actually watch the explanation but only to dismiss it and go around it to arrive at Fed.Gov website or some other mainstream source. Sorry, but its not enough.
I challenge you on what you really "know". Granted, I request that the information I get be at least considered to be true or not.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 866 by Percy, posted 07-14-2022 9:27 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 868 by Percy, posted 07-15-2022 3:40 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 869 by Tangle, posted 07-15-2022 6:38 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 872 by ringo, posted 07-16-2022 11:48 AM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 873 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-16-2022 12:30 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 874 by Percy, posted 07-18-2022 8:07 AM Phat has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20948
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 868 of 878 (895727)
07-15-2022 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 867 by Phat
07-15-2022 3:31 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
As an example, you totally vilified Peter Schiff simply because Irwin was his Father.
My response to this lie hasn't changed: You're still a lying little shit. See Message 434. You are the perfect rube.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 867 by Phat, posted 07-15-2022 3:31 PM Phat has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8576
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.9


(3)
Message 869 of 878 (895728)
07-15-2022 6:38 PM
Reply to: Message 867 by Phat
07-15-2022 3:31 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
I dont mean to sound like a whacky conspiracy theory advocate,
And yet that's exactly what you do sound like.
but I stand by my gut instinct over who has the correct explanations
From what I know of you Phat, your gut doesn't have much of a track history to be proud of does it?

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 867 by Phat, posted 07-15-2022 3:31 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 871 by Theodoric, posted 07-16-2022 8:47 AM Tangle has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6828
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.3


(1)
Message 870 of 878 (895731)
07-16-2022 3:46 AM


New Weapons Lab
The war goes as the world allows it to go.
To me, the military industrial complex centered in the west has themselves the best possible war. Led by a relentless madman (pretty much of their own making) there is now a limited regional conflict involving the best, latest and greatest land war technology modern forces can procure.
Not only are governments politically willing to pay the costs they are willing to fund the new innovations being tested.
Raytheon, BAE Systems, General Dynamics, Thales Group and friends have a continuing flow of revenue providing the expensive, expendable weapons modern militaries need. They also have a ready lab, in a somewhat controlled open territory, in which to test and refine their latest cluster munitions, anti-air/anti-artillery systems, smart munitions, new command and control tech … shoulder-fired battleship killers (wtf?). All on live, or soon not to be live, humans.
Humans have found a new weapons technology playground. We are now testing the latest innovations in the conduct of bloody combat where the destruction, body count, soldier or civilian, is the only metric. Go humans.

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

  
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