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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5199
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 841 of 878 (895605)
07-07-2022 5:43 PM
Reply to: Message 840 by Tangle
07-07-2022 5:05 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Real politic tends be tricky.
Sorry, but do you mean Realpolitik?
quote
Realpolitik (German: [ʁeˈaːlpoliˌtiːk]; from German real 'realistic, practical, actual', and Politik 'politics') refers to enacting or engaging in diplomatic or political policies based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than strictly binding itself to explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises. In this respect, it shares aspects of its philosophical approach with those of realism and pragmatism. It is often simply referred to as pragmatism in politics, e.g. "pursuing pragmatic policies" or "realistic policies".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 840 by Tangle, posted 07-07-2022 5:05 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 842 by Tangle, posted 07-08-2022 3:01 AM dwise1 has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 842 of 878 (895607)
07-08-2022 3:01 AM
Reply to: Message 841 by dwise1
07-07-2022 5:43 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Yup

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 841 by dwise1, posted 07-07-2022 5:43 PM dwise1 has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 843 of 878 (895613)
07-08-2022 10:57 AM
Reply to: Message 840 by Tangle
07-07-2022 5:05 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Given the way you responded it seems possible that it may not have come across that I was just using sarcasm to poke fun at some positions expressed in this thread that have already been proven wrong.
Tangle writes:
Percy writes:
Sanctions have not yet brought Russia to its knees, but any minute now.
Sanctions take years.
This was a reference to earlier claims about how effective the sanctions already were. And sanctions do not take years. They effectively take forever. Countries inevitably find ways around them, they find other trading partners, they find ways to live with them. And the sanctioners gradually lose discipline and interest, not to mention finance the sanctioned country by continuing to do business with them for essential goods. Isn't the ruble worth more today than before the sanctions?
Sanctions have the best chance of a serious impact in their early stages because the sudden changes are disruptive and destabilizing. After that their impact wanes.
...[Russia's] economy is being comprehensively trashed...
Since you now think that sanctions take a long time, what is it you think is trashing the Russian economy? Typically wartime spending (any deficit spending, really) is stimulative to an economy, so since it's only been months and not the years you say sanctions require, what is doing it?
The West continues to ignore the Russian nuclear threat by providing increasing amounts of aid and assistance to Ukraine, but they've got to come to their senses soon.
No idea what this means, the nuclear threat has always been there and still is.
Someone here was arguing that the nuclear threat meant we couldn't meaningfully help Ukraine.
Russia knows that invading a NATO country would mean its end, so the panicked alarms of bordering NATO countries can be ignored.
Ditto above.
Someone here was arguing that invading a NATO country would be suicide, so I merely pointed out that some NATO countries are very alarmed about the Russian threat, e.g.
quote
Lithuania's decision to ban the transit of certain goods between Russia and its isolated exclave of Kaliningrad has provoked wrath among top officials in Moscow, and even a threat of retaliation against the European nation.
Moscow threatens NATO member Lithuania over transit ban on goods to Russia's European exclave Kaliningrad
Fears grow among Russia's neighbors that Putin might not stop at Ukraine
Lithuanians fear the Ukraine war | DW | 28.04.2022
What else were you expecting? Realpolitik tends be tricky.
I don't think you get it.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 840 by Tangle, posted 07-07-2022 5:05 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 844 by Tangle, posted 07-08-2022 11:53 AM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 844 of 878 (895615)
07-08-2022 11:53 AM
Reply to: Message 843 by Percy
07-08-2022 10:57 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Percy writes:
Given the way you responded it seems possible that it may not have come across that I was just using sarcasm to poke fun at some positions expressed in this thread that have already been proven wrong.
Us Brits invented sarcasm, we can detect it even when the author doesn't know it's there, so yeh, I did twig that.
This was a reference to earlier claims about how effective the sanctions already were. And sanctions do not take years. They effectively take forever. Countries inevitably find ways around them, they find other trading partners, they find ways to live with them. And the sanctioners gradually lose discipline and interest, not to mention finance the sanctioned country by continuing to do business with them for essential goods. Isn't the ruble worth more today than before the sanctions?

Sanctions have the best chance of a serious impact in their early stages because the sudden changes are disruptive and destabilizing. After that their impact wanes.
Are there any examples of sanctions against a major country having immediate effect?
I doubt Russia's economy will ever recover, it will sustain long term harm - it's not as if it's a wealthy country now.
ince you now think that sanctions take a long time, what is it you think is trashing the Russian economy? Typically wartime spending (any deficit spending, really) is stimulative to an economy, so since it's only been months and not the years you say sanctions require, what is doing it?
War time spending is a stimulus? Really? My parents told me that there was still food rationing in the UK up 'til 1954. We only paid off our war debt to you guys in 2006. There's a difference between participating in a foreign war as a visitor and investor, and being invaded or invading a country.
Russia is spending almost $1bn per day on the war and its economy is forecast to shrink between 7 and 15% next year. It's a rubbish economy anyway, about the size of Spain and less effective. The main issue is that Putin couldn't care less how the Russians suffer, our sanctions are more about deterring others and reducing his ability to fund his war.
Someone here was arguing that the nuclear threat meant we couldn't meaningfully help Ukraine.
No idea who that was, as far as I remember most were saying we could give arms but not put boots on the ground. To my mind we didn't do enough fast enough and dithered over giving long range missile systems that could be argues to be attacking rather than defensive. That was nonsense.

Someone here was arguing that invading a NATO country would be suicide,
That would be me, because it would be suicide for Putin.
so I merely pointed out that some NATO countries are very alarmed about the Russian threat, e.g.
Every NATO country is alarmed that's why Finland and Sweden are joining NATO and the West is pouring troops and arms into NATO member countries. It would still be suicide for Putin to invade a NATO country.
I don't think you get it.
Ditto.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 843 by Percy, posted 07-08-2022 10:57 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 845 by Percy, posted 07-08-2022 5:11 PM Tangle has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 845 of 878 (895619)
07-08-2022 5:11 PM
Reply to: Message 844 by Tangle
07-08-2022 11:53 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Tangle writes:
Us Brits invented sarcasm, we can detect it even when the author doesn't know it's there, so yeh, I did twig that.
Sure you did. Are you sure you're a Brit?
Are there any examples of sanctions against a major country having immediate effect?
I didn't say anything about an immediate effect. I characterized the early stages of sanctions as being most effective, and for just one example, in the couple weeks after the announcement of sanctions the value of the ruble plunged.
But as I said earlier, the impact of sanctions tends to weaken with time, and today the ruble's value is higher than before sanctions.
I doubt Russia's economy will ever recover...
Not given to rash statements, you.
...it will sustain long term harm - it's not as if it's a wealthy country now.
How long is "ever" to you? Is that like "forever," because in the context you used it it sure sounds that way. Do you maybe want to amend this? Like maybe say, "Russia will feel the economic impact of this misguided invasion for years to come." Or maybe consider other possibilities, like maybe that Russia will win the war, annex Ukraine or turn it into a satellite or puppet state, then milk it and make it pay for it's own conquest?
Since you now think that sanctions take a long time, what is it you think is trashing the Russian economy? Typically wartime spending (any deficit spending, really) is stimulative to an economy, so since it's only been months and not the years you say sanctions require, what is doing it?
War time spending is a stimulus? Really? My parents told me that there was still food rationing in the UK up 'til 1954. We only paid off our war debt to you guys in 2006. There's a difference between participating in a foreign war as a visitor and investor, and being invaded or invading a country.
You've lost the plot here, moving on.
Russia is spending almost $1bn per day on the war and its economy is forecast to shrink between 7 and 15% next year.
Your figures for how much Russia's economy will shrink are in the same ballpark as others I've seen recently, for instance to shrink 10% this year and 1% next year, but such projections might not be worth much since they depend a great deal on the course of the war and how long it continues.
It's a rubbish economy anyway, about the size of Spain and less effective. The main issue is that Putin couldn't care less how the Russians suffer, our sanctions are more about deterring others and reducing his ability to fund his war.
You're off in left field again, moving on.
No idea who that was, as far as I remember most were saying we could give arms but not put boots on the ground. To my mind we didn't do enough fast enough and dithered over giving long range missile systems that could be argues to be attacking rather than defensive. That was nonsense.
Glad you've come around.
Someone here was arguing that invading a NATO country would be suicide,
That would be me, because it would be suicide for Putin.
If by "Putin" you mean the end of Putin's rule in Russia and not Russia itself, are you sure that's what you said? Engaging in a bit of revisionism, are we? What you actually said was:
Message 467: My position is that NATO would crush Russia in a conventional war (and a nuclear one for that matter but then no-one wins). Russia knows this so it will not set foot in any NATO country. It would be suicide, so it's not going to happen.
Message 471: Of course it doesn't - Russia attacking a NATO member before, now or in the future would be suicide. That's the entire point of NATO.
Message 474:
This is extreme exaggeration. It would not be suicide for Russia to attack a NATO member.
It would be WWIII
Message 488: If causing WW3 (oops) isn't suicide, then, well, we need a new language.
Message 502: But the very first act of any direct NATO action behalf of a NATO country under attack would be to take out Russian radar and ground to air missile sites, control centres and off-shore naval assets implicated in the Russian offences - wherever they're located. That's why Putin would never put boots in a NATO country, it would be world war and suicide.
Message 575: An attack by Russia on NATO WOULD be suicide. It would either end in Putin's defeat and many deaths or WW111/III/3 - most likely the latter, unless there was a palace coup.
Message 653: No need to paraphrase Percy, any invasion by Russia onto NATO territory would be suicidal.
At no point did you argue that a Russian attack on a NATO country would bring an end to Putin's rule in Russia. Also from Message 575:
But I'm done arguing silly word games.
Obviously not.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 844 by Tangle, posted 07-08-2022 11:53 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 846 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 6:14 AM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 846 of 878 (895624)
07-09-2022 6:14 AM
Reply to: Message 845 by Percy
07-08-2022 5:11 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Percy writes:
Sure you did. Are you sure you're a Brit?
You seem to think that you can know more about what I think and who I am than I do.
Ignoring your purely argumentative stuff, your point on the Russian ruble is interesting. It's high now mostly because of the price of oil - it's selling less because of sanctions but the price is higher. But its economy as a whole is in enormous difficulty, it' now a Potemkin economy, selling to itself.
Russia's ruble hit its strongest level in 7 years despite massive sanctions. Here's why
If by "Putin" you mean the end of Putin's rule in Russia and not Russia itself, are you sure that's what you said? Engaging in a bit of revisionism, are we?
I've tried to explain this to you several times, I'm not starting over. I'll just repeat; invading a NATO country would be suicide for both Russia and Putin. Pretty bloody obviously.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 845 by Percy, posted 07-08-2022 5:11 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 847 by Percy, posted 07-09-2022 10:32 AM Tangle has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 847 of 878 (895626)
07-09-2022 10:32 AM
Reply to: Message 846 by Tangle
07-09-2022 6:14 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Tangle writes:
You seem to think that you can know more about what I think and who I am than I do.
I was just poking fun with more sarcasm, which if you were a true Brit you would have detected, right?
My only insights into your inner thoughts are your words here, but I do think others reflections of our external selves can offer helpful insights.
You comments about sanctions seem to reinforce their general ineffectiveness. We have an incredible number of sanctions against a long list of countries. I wonder if you added up the number of US sanctions and the number of US trade agreements which would be more.
I've tried to explain this to you several times, I'm not starting over. I'll just repeat; invading a NATO country would be suicide for both Russia and Putin. Pretty bloody obviously.
You rarely explain, and certainly not this. It seems to be anathema to you. Once you've baselessly denigrated the rebuttal you're usually done. This is just the same rash and bold declaration yet again, oh sage and soothsayer. Your opinions far outweigh their fragile foundations.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 846 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 6:14 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 848 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 10:48 AM Percy has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 848 of 878 (895627)
07-09-2022 10:48 AM
Reply to: Message 847 by Percy
07-09-2022 10:32 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Just out of interest, what do YOU think would happen if Putin sent his tanks into a NATO country?

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 847 by Percy, posted 07-09-2022 10:32 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 849 by Phat, posted 07-09-2022 3:43 PM Tangle has replied
 Message 851 by Percy, posted 07-10-2022 9:46 AM Tangle has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 16107
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 849 of 878 (895631)
07-09-2022 3:43 PM
Reply to: Message 848 by Tangle
07-09-2022 10:48 AM


Re: The War Drags On
I think it would be fair game for NATO to take them out via airpower. Russia cant match us in the skies.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 848 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 10:48 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 850 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 4:23 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 859 by ringo, posted 07-11-2022 12:35 PM Phat has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 850 of 878 (895634)
07-09-2022 4:23 PM
Reply to: Message 849 by Phat
07-09-2022 3:43 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Phat writes:
I think it would be fair game for NATO to take them out via airpower. Russia cant match us in the skies.
Russia loses the air war. Then what does it do?

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 849 by Phat, posted 07-09-2022 3:43 PM Phat has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 852 by Percy, posted 07-10-2022 10:01 AM Tangle has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 851 of 878 (895659)
07-10-2022 9:46 AM
Reply to: Message 848 by Tangle
07-09-2022 10:48 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Tangle writes:
Just out of interest, what do YOU think would happen if Putin sent his tanks into a NATO country?
There'd be a response, but I know I'd only be guessing at the specifics and the scale, though I consider a full scale counter-invasion of Russia that would wipe it off the political map unlikely in the extreme. You, on the other hand, seem to know it would be suicide for Russia without explaining what that means while at the same time claiming in modus creationist that you've already explained it. You more recently said it would be suicide for Putin, but I wasn't sure if you actually meant Putin the man, in which case meaning he'd lose his leadership position, or if his name was just another way of referring to Russia.
You're remarkably reticent about explaining anything. You speak in broad ambiguities, of which "it would be suicide for Russia" is a good example, and become hostile toward anyone seeking clarification.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 848 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 10:48 AM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 854 by Tangle, posted 07-10-2022 2:30 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 852 of 878 (895660)
07-10-2022 10:01 AM
Reply to: Message 850 by Tangle
07-09-2022 4:23 PM


Re: The War Drags On
Tangle writes:
Phat writes:
I think it would be fair game for NATO to take them out via airpower. Russia cant match us in the skies.
Russia loses the air war. Then what does it do?
It wouldn't be a certainty that Russia would lose an air war. It has the second largest air force in the world. The size of the combined air forces of NATO countries exceeds Russia's, but Russia's sheer size in area has thwarted every invader eventually. NATO would be fighting an air force that has what would feel like infinite space in which to hide and maneuver. Such an air conflict might come to resemble punching an overstuffed down pillow.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 850 by Tangle, posted 07-09-2022 4:23 PM Tangle has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 853 by Phat, posted 07-10-2022 2:20 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 855 by Tangle, posted 07-11-2022 5:08 AM Percy has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 16107
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 853 of 878 (895678)
07-10-2022 2:20 PM
Reply to: Message 852 by Percy
07-10-2022 10:01 AM


Re: The War Drags On
I was implying that the air war would be limited to the hypothetical NATO Country being attacked.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 852 by Percy, posted 07-10-2022 10:01 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


(1)
Message 854 of 878 (895679)
07-10-2022 2:30 PM
Reply to: Message 851 by Percy
07-10-2022 9:46 AM


Re: The War Drags On
Percy writes:
There'd be a response, but I know I'd only be guessing at the specifics and the scale
Speaking of vague ambiguities...
But yes, there's be a response and then a counter-response and unless Putin retreats the world trickles eventually into total war in Europe. Which would be suicide for Putin (and bad for everyone).
So he ain't going to do it. We hope.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 851 by Percy, posted 07-10-2022 9:46 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 856 by Percy, posted 07-11-2022 10:11 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 855 of 878 (895687)
07-11-2022 5:08 AM
Reply to: Message 852 by Percy
07-10-2022 10:01 AM


Re: The War Drags On
NATO forces outnumber and outclass Russian forces at almost every level by orders of magnitude. It has 5 times as many aircraft as Russia.
As of 2022, NATO had approximately 3.37 million active military personnel compared with 1.35 million active military personnel in the Russian military. The collective military capabilities of the 30 countries that make up NATO outnumber Russia in terms of aircraft, at 20,723 to 4,173, and in naval power, with 2,049 military ships, to 605. Russia's ground combat vehicle capacity is more competitive, however, with 12,420 units, to 14,682. The combined nuclear arsenal of the United States, United Kingdom, and France amounted to 6,065 nuclear warheads, compared with Russia's 6,255.
NATO Russia military comparison 2022 | Statista
Not that it's simply numbers that matter of course and no one here has the faintest clue about how such a battle would be carried out. But it would take a new level of insanity for Putin to invade a NATO country, it would mobilise Europe and probably end in nuclear conflagration. Suicidal.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 852 by Percy, posted 07-10-2022 10:01 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 857 by Percy, posted 07-11-2022 10:22 AM Tangle has not replied

  
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