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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
PaulK
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Posts: 17179
Joined: 01-10-2003


Message 811 of 878 (894317)
05-12-2022 4:04 AM


Finnish leadership calls for NATO membership
Finland's president and prime minister have called for the country to apply for Nato membership "without delay".
BBC
The final decision is not due until Sunday, but this is a significant pointer

Replies to this message:
 Message 814 by Theodoric, posted 05-13-2022 10:08 AM PaulK has not replied
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ramoss
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Posts: 3228
Joined: 08-11-2004


(1)
Message 812 of 878 (894339)
05-12-2022 9:07 PM
Reply to: Message 798 by Tangle
05-04-2022 8:39 AM


One of the big losers of Russia's militarily campaign in the Ursine is China. They suddenly see on just how effective sanctions can be in the modern world. China is more vulnerable to world wide sanctions, because they need energy and food more than Russia does. Mind you, russia is going to be going through reverse individualization if this war continues past the end of the year, as parts to the manufacturing plants wear out, and their stock pile of spare parts get depleted

This message is a reply to:
 Message 798 by Tangle, posted 05-04-2022 8:39 AM Tangle has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 813 of 878 (894344)
05-13-2022 7:27 AM


How Effective Are Sanctions Really?
Briefly, my position on sanctions is that they're like beating a country with a pillow where the pillow gets weaker with time. Sanctions are never 100%, not even close. (Are they even 20%?) We hear reports daily of countries considering another round of sanctions on Russia, which would only be possible if significant sanction options remained on the table. And then there's that the target country finds alternative trading partners. Some European countries are pledging to stop purchasing Russian fossil fuels by the end of the summer. Anyone want to lay money that'll happen?
Here's a report from the NYT about how active Russian shipping is: Russian Shipping Traffic Remains Strong as Sanctions Take Time to Bite
--Percy

  
Theodoric
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Posts: 7433
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 814 of 878 (894346)
05-13-2022 10:08 AM
Reply to: Message 811 by PaulK
05-12-2022 4:04 AM


Re: Finnish leadership calls for NATO membership
Turkey is going to veto it.

What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens

Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts

"God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness.

If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up why would you have to lie?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 811 by PaulK, posted 05-12-2022 4:04 AM PaulK has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 815 by Percy, posted 05-14-2022 7:41 AM Theodoric has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 815 of 878 (894379)
05-14-2022 7:41 AM
Reply to: Message 814 by Theodoric
05-13-2022 10:08 AM


Re: Finnish leadership calls for NATO membership
Theodoric writes:
Turkey is going to veto it.
I wonder if there's a process for removing a country from NATO.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 814 by Theodoric, posted 05-13-2022 10:08 AM Theodoric has not replied

  
PaulK
Member
Posts: 17179
Joined: 01-10-2003


Message 816 of 878 (894405)
05-15-2022 12:23 PM
Reply to: Message 811 by PaulK
05-12-2022 4:04 AM


Re: Finnish leadership calls for NATO membership
Finland is applying to join NATO and Sweden has decided to follow suit.
This is another blow for Putin, although a predictable one. With an aggressive neighbour joining a defensive alliance is obviously a good idea. And threats from that neighbour are at least as much an incentive as a deterrent.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 811 by PaulK, posted 05-12-2022 4:04 AM PaulK has not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6837
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 817 of 878 (894525)
05-18-2022 9:35 PM


NATO (USofA) Moves In Sweden
Smart move. Individual military alliances until the bureaucrats get their thing together.
The Pentagon has offered Sweden security measures as its NATO application is pending, a Swedish minister says.
Quick action now puts even more world political pressure (let alone military) on Tzar Vladimir the Condemned.
Putin has just been shown the finger ... wrapped in armor.

Edited by AZPaul3, : title


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

Replies to this message:
 Message 818 by ringo, posted 05-19-2022 11:50 AM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19784
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


(2)
Message 818 of 878 (894533)
05-19-2022 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 817 by AZPaul3
05-18-2022 9:35 PM


Re: NATO (USofA) Moves In Sweden
AZPaul3 writes:
Putin has just been shown the finger ... wrapped in armor.
An iron curtain is descending around Putin.

"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 817 by AZPaul3, posted 05-18-2022 9:35 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 8580
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 3.0


Message 819 of 878 (894896)
06-01-2022 4:12 AM


It's a 100 days of the war now and it seems that the war is turning slightly in Putin's favour. Focussing on the East and simply destroying cities with long range artillery that the Ukrainians have few answers to and not caring about their own losses is working.
When I was away I caught a news article reporting that Russia would be forced to take some action or other if the US provided the Ukrainians with missile systems but I see that they are now to get
“ advanced rocket systems that can strike with precision at long-range Russian targets as part of a $700 million weapons package expected to be unveiled on Wednesday.” Reuters.
And they were also supposed to get artillery from Germany that had a longer range than the Russians.
The question is, why is it taking so long to do this?
The reason given is that it turns the West's help from defensive to offensive - but this seems like playing with words. The Ukrainians have promised not to use the missiles on Russian territory - presumably old Russian territory - but I'm pretty sure that promise could have been made 100 days ago.

Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine.

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


(5)
Message 820 of 878 (894996)
06-05-2022 9:28 AM


Thoughts on the Current State of the War
I hope military support for Ukraine no longer includes expressions of concern that aid be restrained in terms of effectiveness and lethality so as not to provoke Russia.
I hope Russia's nuclear capabilities are no longer being used as an excuse for moderating military aid for Ukraine.
I hope the importance of a free Ukraine as a buffer against Russian aggression and expansionism is now understood as essential to western security. Our military aid and assistance has to rise to levels beyond just slowing Russian progress in the war to a crawl. It has to rise to a level that insures Ukraine's victory.
Counterattacks on Russia seem to be off limits. This make no sense. The concerns appear to be of provoking Russia and of turning Russian public opinion. But Russia is a dictatorship. Public opinion doesn't matter, and war protesters are routinely arrested. And nothing Ukraine did provoked Russia. Russia merely invented an excuse to invade (Nazi oppression of Russian ethnics? Really? Can they have found a more absurd excuse?). If it is militarily advantageous for Ukraine to conduct military operations in Russia then they should do so.
I wish we were paying less attention to what Putin says. For example, why is the western news media reporting that Putin blames the west for for food and energy crises. His intentions are not to provide the west accurate information but to spread lies and propaganda, and the western media is helping him do it.
The reality is that Russia is stealing Ukrainian wheat. Ukraine plays a significant role in the world's wheat supplies (20% of the world's high grade wheat, and 7% of all wheat). Famines will result from Russia's wheat heists.
I hope the west gets serious about sanctions. I've always called sanctions a blunt sword that becomes less and less effective with time as those imposing the sanctions become less and less diligent about enforcing them, and as the sanctioned country becomes more and more effective at circumventing them. Sanctions are not going to bring Russia to it's knees, nor even to the bargaining table, but if we're going to oppose Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and if we truly understand the importance of a free Ukraine to the west, then all avenues must be employed and that includes sanctions.
And if we're going to do sanctions then we should do them right. It is long past the time when it should be possible for the media to report, "The West Considers Additional Sanctions." By this time there should be no additional sanctions left to consider. By this time every possible sanction should have already been employed.
What we mustn't do is continue limiting our military aid and assistance to levels that only guarantee a long slog before Ukraine is forced to capitulate. Current Ukrainian casualties are estimated at between 60-100 per day. That's not sustainable. The population of Ukraine is 41 million, of Russia 145 million. The area of Ukraine is 233,000 square miles, of Russia 6.6 million square miles. If Ukraine is to prevail it will only come at great cost to the west in terms of both men and materiel (yes, both men and materiel). Ukraine doesn't have enough men to employ all the weaponry we'd have to send them to insure victory.
Our leaders have to stand up and squarely declare our truth, not mumble it out with heads turned aside. Yes, some high level officials have done so, but not national leaders. These leaders must shout from the rooftops (i.e., declare in major speeches) that we want a free Ukraine, we want Ukraine to join Nato, we want Russia to lose, be severely weakened, and to face a strengthened, expanded and remotivated NATO able to hold Russian aggression and expansionism in check. They must not make noises, as Macron did recently, that the US is too aggressive toward Russia. He also said:
quote
We must, together, never cede to the temptation of humiliation, nor to a spirit of revenge. We are not at war with Russia. We are working in Europe for the preservation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and for the return of peace on our continent.
  —French President Emmanuel Macron
How can we be too aggressive toward an extreme and ruthless belligerent? Does Macron somehow believe that if the Ukraine war can be ended while treating Russia with respect that Russian expansionism and aggression will end? Is he a fool?
We also have to make serious efforts at undermining Belarus's current status as a Russian satellite, to somehow pry it away from Russia and put it on a path toward rejoining Europe as an ally and partner.
And we should have the same goal for Russia itself. That was once the plan back when Boris Yeltsin was in charge, and it should be again. There's no reason European nations shouldn't be one large community, the efforts of one man to restore the glories of the Soviet Union notwithstanding.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20988
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 821 of 878 (895022)
06-06-2022 9:36 AM


How seriously are we taking what Putin says these days?
How seriously we're taking what Putin says these days is an important question. For instance most recently Putin said he'd bomb and shell more widely if longer-range missiles were sent to Ukraine. Are we taking this threat seriously?
I am, of course, sure the US State Department and Department of defense and Britain's Home Department and Ministry of Defence (yes, they have a spelling problem, but they're an ally and they mostly speak English, so we should just let it go) deeply consider and analyze everything Putin says, but I hope they don't conclude that they must in any way take his threats into account as they consider how we should assist Ukraine.
What great power we would cede to Putin if he could just say, "If you escalate your assistance you'll be sorry," and we would back off. Which seemed to be the case early in the conflict. I hope everyone remembers our refusal to send aircraft because it would escalate the conflict. So we didn't send aircraft, but Putin laid ruin to a number of Ukrainian cities and towns anyway, and still is.
So I hope no one in officialdom is arguing, "We better not send those long-range rockets or things will get worse." Does Putin really have the ability to make things any worse? And maybe, if we're lucky, some of the long-range rockets will land in Russian cities and towns.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 822 by Phat, posted 06-06-2022 9:58 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 832 by Tangle, posted 06-08-2022 1:22 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 16107
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 822 of 878 (895028)
06-06-2022 9:58 AM
Reply to: Message 821 by Percy
06-06-2022 9:36 AM


Re: How seriously are we taking what Putin says these days?
Percy writes:
For instance most recently Putin said he'd bomb and shell more widely if longer-range missiles were sent to Ukraine. Are we taking this threat seriously?
Russia has already started targeting equipment sent to help Ukraine.
YahooNews writes:
Russian missiles rocked Kyiv on Sunday, sending clouds of smoke wafting over the Ukrainian capital for the first time in more than a month.
Ukraine said the strike hit a railway repair site; Moscow claimed it destroyed tanks sent by European countries.
The attack comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if the U.S. were to supply Ukraine with longer-ranged missiles and artillery, Russia would respond by striking new targets.
Ukraine said Russia had carried out the strike on Kyiv using long-range missiles fired from bomber aircraft.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 821 by Percy, posted 06-06-2022 9:36 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 823 by ringo, posted 06-06-2022 12:17 PM Phat has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19784
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 823 of 878 (895038)
06-06-2022 12:17 PM
Reply to: Message 822 by Phat
06-06-2022 9:58 AM


Re: How seriously are we taking what Putin says these days?
YahooNews writes
Can you get CBC news where you live? You should get your news from them instead of a bunch of yahoos.

"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 822 by Phat, posted 06-06-2022 9:58 AM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 824 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 12:35 PM ringo has replied
 Message 827 by Phat, posted 06-07-2022 11:11 AM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6837
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 824 of 878 (895039)
06-06-2022 12:35 PM
Reply to: Message 823 by ringo
06-06-2022 12:17 PM


Re: How seriously are we taking what Putin says these days?
Can you get CBC news where you live?
Interesting. Have you any comparisons to others? BBC World, PBS, BBC America, OAN?
Serious, would your recommend them as a viable source?

Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 823 by ringo, posted 06-06-2022 12:17 PM ringo has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 825 by ringo, posted 06-06-2022 12:39 PM AZPaul3 has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19784
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 825 of 878 (895040)
06-06-2022 12:39 PM
Reply to: Message 824 by AZPaul3
06-06-2022 12:35 PM


Re: How seriously are we taking what Putin says these days?
AZPaul3 writes:
Have you any comparisons to others? BBC World, PBS, BBC America, OAN?
I don't watch anything but Canadian broadcast news. I think the BBC would be okay.

"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 824 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 12:35 PM AZPaul3 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 826 by AZPaul3, posted 06-06-2022 4:01 PM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
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