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Author
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Topic: Testing The Financial Apologists
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Phat
Member Posts: 19116 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 721 of 744 (924454)
11-21-2025 2:44 AM
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Reply to: Message 720 by Taq
11-18-2025 11:07 AM
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Statistics
You are right, in my opinion. For once, we agree...if only for a moment. 
When both religious and non-religious people reach the same conclusions then you know religion isn't the reason.--PercyGod alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
Critics would of course say that "God" is a product of human imagination...but then again God may well declare that all of creation is a product of His imagination! It is all in the perspective of the observer.~Phat
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 720 by Taq, posted 11-18-2025 11:07 AM | | Taq has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 722 by Taq, posted 11-21-2025 12:31 PM | | Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply |
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Taq
Member (Idle past 102 days) Posts: 10563 Joined: 03-06-2009
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Message 722 of 744 (924458)
11-21-2025 12:31 PM
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Reply to: Message 721 by Phat
11-21-2025 2:44 AM
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Re: Statistics
Phat writes: You are right, in my opinion. For once, we agree...if only for a moment. In the name of reciprocation, I think everyone agrees fiat currencies aren't perfect. Pretty much all of economics and human society in general is an imperfect blend of concessions and compromises. Much like Churchill's views on democracy, fiat currencies are the worst type of currency, except for all the rest. Precious metals are completely viable investments, especially as part of a diversified group of investments. A mixture of gold, bonds, dividend stocks, low risk stocks, and high risk stocks works quite well. Gold ETFs are one way to go, but if you want to invest in physical gold get it from a reputable dealer and make sure you have the physical gold in your hands instead of a certificate. Also keep an eye on fees. That's my investment advice.
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 721 by Phat, posted 11-21-2025 2:44 AM | | Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply |
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Phat
Member Posts: 19116 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 723 of 744 (924953)
01-26-2026 12:13 PM
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Reply to: Message 20 by Percy
10-06-2021 12:42 PM
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2026 Financial Apologetics
Percy in 2021) writes: So far the only one who's demonstrated he has no idea "what is really going on" is you. I told all of you that BRICS was waging a financial war against the Western dollar-based system. You "experts" thought I was daft. You likely still do, but I can now point you to the media data and evidence that support my predictions and refute your financial understanding.
Gold rises after topping $5,000 for the first time in 'breathtaking and profoundly scary' rally also...
Silver Is Putting Gold To ShamePercy writes: Phat, I've offered explanations, several times, for why modern currencies cannot be based upon gold. You haven't responded to any of them. What would be the point of explaining again?
Many experts suggest that Gold has replaced (or is replacing) the US Dollar as the global reserve currency.
Message 20Percy writes: It isn't that I'm so sure I'm right as that I'm able to muster facts and reason in support of what I think true and you're not. Back then, all I had was intuition. No data. Now, the data is rolling in. What do *your* facts and reason say now in 2025? Apart from blaming Trump for trashing the dollar alliance, what do you see as the endgame in global finance? I say the hard assets will be the bedrock for at least the next 5-10 years. The dollar-based system was challenged by the United States' audacity in using the dollar's global reserve status as a weapon. It came back to bite us ten times over. Edited by Phat, .
If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 20 by Percy, posted 10-06-2021 12:42 PM | | Percy has not replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 724 by Tangle, posted 01-26-2026 12:28 PM | | Phat has not replied |
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Tangle
Member Posts: 9893 From: UK Joined: 10-07-2011 Member Rating: 4.7
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Message 724 of 744 (924954)
01-26-2026 12:28 PM
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Reply to: Message 723 by Phat
01-26-2026 12:13 PM
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Re: 2025 Financial Apologetics
ffs Phat, gold is going through the roof because the world is in crisis mode because Rump is destabilising it. There's always a rush to gold when the markets don't know what might happen next but think that whatever it is, it won't be good for business. It's got sod all to do with BRICS and other fantasies - it's purely markets doing what they do.
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 723 by Phat, posted 01-26-2026 12:13 PM | | Phat has not replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 725 by Rahvin, posted 01-26-2026 3:02 PM | | Tangle has not replied |
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Rahvin
Member (Idle past 151 days) Posts: 4179 Joined: 07-01-2005
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Message 725 of 744 (924956)
01-26-2026 3:02 PM
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Reply to: Message 724 by Tangle
01-26-2026 12:28 PM
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Re: 2025 Financial Apologetics
There was no risk posed by BRICS a year ago. There is risk today, directly due to Trump. He has destabilized trade and the geopolitical order. He has made the us dollar unreliable and unstable. Us investment is now a risk where previously it was among the most safe and secure investments in history. Phat's "predictions" are becoming more realistic, simply due to different means. 100% of the real cause is Trump.
-->“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” - Francis Bacon"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers “A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity.” – Albert Camus "...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." - Barash, David 1995... "Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, J. R. R. Tolkien: The Lord Of the Rings "The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death."
1 Corinthians 15:26King James Version (KJV) -->Nihil supernum --> -->
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 724 by Tangle, posted 01-26-2026 12:28 PM | | Tangle has not replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 726 by Phat, posted 01-26-2026 3:23 PM | | Rahvin has replied |
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Phat
Member Posts: 19116 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 726 of 744 (924957)
01-26-2026 3:23 PM
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Reply to: Message 725 by Rahvin
01-26-2026 3:02 PM
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Re: 2026 Financial Apologetics
100% of the real cause is Trump. I forgot to mention this. The real reason that we seized control of Venezuelan oil was to reestablish the petrodollar and save the system. We will upgrade their system and give it back to a stable government there, though we will insist that they trade in dollars and not illegally. Edited by Phat, .
If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 725 by Rahvin, posted 01-26-2026 3:02 PM | | Rahvin has replied |
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Taq
Member (Idle past 102 days) Posts: 10563 Joined: 03-06-2009
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Message 727 of 744 (924961)
01-26-2026 4:06 PM
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Reply to: Message 726 by Phat
01-26-2026 3:23 PM
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Re: 2025 Financial Apologetics
Phat writes: The real reason that we seized control of Venezuelan oil was to reestablish the petrodollar and save the system. That's the craziest fantasy I have seen you put forward so far.
We will upgrade their system and give it back to a stable government there, though we will insist that they trade in dollars and not illegally. Why? So they can just take it all back and nationalize it like they did before? What US oil company is going to be willing to lose billions of dollars?
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 726 by Phat, posted 01-26-2026 3:23 PM | | Phat has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 729 by Phat, posted 01-27-2026 2:20 PM | | Taq has replied |
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Rahvin
Member (Idle past 151 days) Posts: 4179 Joined: 07-01-2005
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Message 728 of 744 (924966)
01-26-2026 4:46 PM
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Reply to: Message 726 by Phat
01-26-2026 3:23 PM
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Re: 2025 Financial Apologetics
Nonsense. Oil is out. Renewables are growing. There is no need for a "petrodollar." Renewables are now cheaper per megawatt than alternatives, and are growing even without government incentives. You know the scariest thing China now leads the US in? Electricity production. Which does not come from oil or gas. They're using solar and wind, with some nuclear.
-->“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.” - Francis Bacon"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers “A world that can be explained even with bad reasons is a familiar world. But, on the other hand, in a universe suddenly divested of illusions and lights, man feels an alien, a stranger. His exile is without remedy since he is deprived of the memory of a lost home or the hope of a promised land. This divorce between man and his life, the actor and his setting, is properly the feeling of absurdity.” – Albert Camus "...the pious hope that by combining numerous little turds of variously tainted data, one can obtain a valuable result; but in fact, the outcome is merely a larger than average pile of shit." - Barash, David 1995... "Many that live deserve death. And some die that deserve life. Can you give it to them? Then be not too eager to deal out death in the name of justice, fearing for your own safety. Even the wise cannot see all ends." - Gandalf, J. R. R. Tolkien: The Lord Of the Rings "The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death."
1 Corinthians 15:26King James Version (KJV) -->Nihil supernum --> -->
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 726 by Phat, posted 01-26-2026 3:23 PM | | Phat has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 730 by Phat, posted 01-29-2026 8:58 AM | | Rahvin has not replied |
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Phat
Member Posts: 19116 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 729 of 744 (924971)
01-27-2026 2:20 PM
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Reply to: Message 727 by Taq
01-26-2026 4:06 PM
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Re: 2026 Financial Apologetics
Taq writes: Why? So they can just take it all back and nationalize it like they did before? What US oil company is going to be willing to lose billions of dollars? Which is why we will insist on a favorable regime change. I've already established through personal interviews that a majority of the Venezuelans here are in favor of a liberated Venezuela. That could be why they came here. They were against the deplorable Marxist Dictator who cozied up to China. This scenario has been relayed several times over the last fifty years by the United States in S. America. Yes, it's the oil. It's about stabilizing the US Dollar. Its also why we wiped out the soft power backroom deals with European Social Democrats. They had a different view of US influence, and globalism was not to the current administration's liking. For better or worse.
Trump's Venezuela oil grab revives 'petrodollar' debate And
'A sign of desperation'—Venezuela and the petrodollar endgame quote:
There are no official figures, but it is estimated that as much as 20% of the world's crude trade is now priced in currencies other than the dollar, such as the euro or Chinese yuan.
quote:
President Donald Trump has made it clear that the U.S. is interested in tapping this enormous potential, stating that he plans to have U.S. energy majors revitalize the Latin American country's flailing oil industry.
Keeping all this future production within the U.S. orbit could impact more than just energy markets, however, as it would create a lot more petrodollars – a tool that has long helped the U.S. maintain its dominance in the global financial system.
That said, I agree that it appears Trump is behaving like a bull in a China shop regarding global trade. Edited by Phat, . Edited by Phat, . Edited by Phat, .
If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 727 by Taq, posted 01-26-2026 4:06 PM | | Taq has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 732 by Taq, posted 01-29-2026 3:32 PM | | Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply |
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Phat
Member Posts: 19116 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 730 of 744 (924996)
01-29-2026 8:58 AM
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Reply to: Message 728 by Rahvin
01-26-2026 4:46 PM
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Re: 2025 Financial Apologetics
Rahvin writes: Oil is out. Renewables are growing. There is no need for a "petrodollar." Oil is still a primary commodity. Perhaps in five more years, the renewables will dominate, but not today. Commodities and precious metals are countercyclical to the US Dollar. Look at the evidence.
Gold jumps above $5,500 as weak dollar is 'supercharging' rally Look at the DAX P market.
Precious Metals Rally Pushes Silver to Record High While some analysts say the Bull run could suddenly reverse, others predict $200.00 an ounce for silver. This all points to a major correction in the US dollar's value. We have 3 more years of this. Invest wisely.
If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 728 by Rahvin, posted 01-26-2026 4:46 PM | | Rahvin has not replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 731 by Tangle, posted 01-29-2026 11:48 AM | | Phat has not replied |
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Tangle
Member Posts: 9893 From: UK Joined: 10-07-2011 Member Rating: 4.7
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Message 731 of 744 (925001)
01-29-2026 11:48 AM
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Reply to: Message 730 by Phat
01-29-2026 8:58 AM
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Re: 2025 Financial Apologetics
Phat writes: Oil is still a primary commodity. Perhaps in five more years, the renewables will dominate, but not today. In the UK renewable became the majority energy source in 2024. There's a very long list of countries with more than 50% of their energy coming from renewables. I'll leave you to google it. Gold is countercyclical to everything in a crisis - you man has created a crisis. I suspect he bought gold. Edited by Tangle, .
Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 730 by Phat, posted 01-29-2026 8:58 AM | | Phat has not replied |
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Taq
Member (Idle past 102 days) Posts: 10563 Joined: 03-06-2009
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Message 732 of 744 (925002)
01-29-2026 3:32 PM
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Reply to: Message 729 by Phat
01-27-2026 2:20 PM
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Re: 2026 Financial Apologetics
Phat writes: Which is why we will insist on a favorable regime change. Ohhhh . . . we'll insist. Yeah, that'll work. Show me a South American government that promises to not be corrupt and I will show you a South American government that will reach new heights of corruption in under a year. And why would they even want to risk it? There are many, many more areas to extract oil from that aren't nearly as risky.
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 729 by Phat, posted 01-27-2026 2:20 PM | | Phat has seen this message but chosen not to reply |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 733 by Percy, posted 01-29-2026 6:21 PM | | Taq has not replied |
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Percy
Member Posts: 23814 From: New Hampshire Joined: 12-23-2000 Member Rating: 4.7
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Message 733 of 744 (925003)
01-29-2026 6:21 PM
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Reply to: Message 732 by Taq
01-29-2026 3:32 PM
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Re: 2026 Financial Apologetics
Has it already been mentioned that Venezuelan oil is very low quality? It has high viscosity and sulfur content. It's difficult to extract from the ground and expensive to refine, lowering interest in its exploitation. Another factor worth mentioning is that the U.S. is a net oil exporting country. We don't need Venezuelan oil, and anyway, it doesn't belong to us. It belongs to Venezuela. Most people in the U.S. believe in democracy and self-determination. Restoring democracy is a good thing, but it is the Venezuelan people who should choose the leaders to guide Venezuela in rejoining the community of democratic nations. But the manner in which we restored democracy (if we really have) was not a good thing. If the U.S. can claim the right to invade Venezuela and kidnap their leaders, then, for example, China can claim the right to invade Taiwan and kidnap theirs. We have done a great disservice in providing the world yet another example of the powerful acting with impunity. --Percy
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 732 by Taq, posted 01-29-2026 3:32 PM | | Taq has not replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 734 by Phat, posted 03-17-2026 8:49 PM | | Percy has not replied | | | Message 737 by Phat, posted 03-18-2026 7:59 PM | | Percy has seen this message but chosen not to reply |
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Phat
Member Posts: 19116 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: 12-30-2003
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Message 734 of 744 (925276)
03-17-2026 8:49 PM
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Reply to: Message 733 by Percy
01-29-2026 6:21 PM
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LNA: How can we make the dollar stronger (& do we want to?)
LNA writes: First, how to make it stronger? Raise tariffs gradually to 100% over a period of twelve years - 8.5% per year. Then make it clear that no future lawmaker or administration can change the policy for the next 20 years. Then make the policy change include a legal clause stating that the revenue needs to be used to subsidize record drilling on sea and land, plus fund the building of refineries and pipelines. Then include a legal clause stating that the rest of the revenue will be used to fund a federal offer of payments to states that end their sales taxes. Then use the rest to reduce the deficit. I imagine this would strengthen the dollar quite a bit. It would probably enable ten+ years of zero percent interest rates on treasury bonds - down from around 4% (?) right now. Just the lower interest rates on replacing maturing bonds with new issues would save over $500 billion a year after about 7-8 years. But, I don't like the idea. Not the tariff part, anyway. What is Phat's idea? (And remember that a stronger dollar (often made stronger through higher interest rates) makes the $40 trillion debt more murderous to pay off.) (I would rather inflate the crap out of the $, and "pay off" the debt that way.) I think that Percy, Taq, Tangle, and Rahvin would argue that we need to go back to Joe Biden diplomacy. Tariffs were a mistake, they would argue. I'm not so sure, but I brought your topic over here to my thread. Have a go at it.
If you look carefully you will see that there is one thing and only one thing that causes unhappiness. The name of that thing is attachment. What is an attachment? An emotional state of clinging caused by the belief that without some particular thing or some person you cannot be happy.~Anthony de Mello God alone is God *but* God is not alone~Ellis Potter We see Monsters where Science shows us Windmills.~Phat, remixed
For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who disbelieve, no amount of proof is sufficient. Ignatius of Loyola
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 733 by Percy, posted 01-29-2026 6:21 PM | | Percy has not replied |
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LamarkNewAge
Member Posts: 3151 Joined: 12-22-2015 Member Rating: 4.1
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Message 735 of 744 (925277)
03-17-2026 9:21 PM
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Reply to: Message 734 by Phat
03-17-2026 8:49 PM
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Re: LNA: How can we make the dollar stronger (& do we want to?)
You probably need to keep dollars in the country if you want to make the dollar stronger. Or raise interest rates, which would explode the deficit. You were the one making the issue. I think the only solution is for a pretty big inflationary correction, which - if enormous enough - could wipe out the debt via devaluation. But, what is your solution? What is the problem?
| This message is a reply to: | | | Message 734 by Phat, posted 03-17-2026 8:49 PM | | Phat has replied |
| Replies to this message: | | | Message 736 by Phat, posted 03-17-2026 10:07 PM | | LamarkNewAge has not replied |
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