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Author | Topic: COVID vaccine works - we're saved! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:The first step in trying to do a risk/benefit analysis is to correctly formulate the probability problem correctly. You haven't formulated the problem correctly and people like you won't correct your formulation when your errors are pointed out, such as the difficulty of implementing a general mask mandate. Kleinman:This is the way you try to address your errors in the risk/benefit analysis for the implementation of a general mask mandate. Kleinman:Clinical Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster 1 : of, relating to, or conducted in or as if in a clinic: such as
a : involving direct observation of the patient clinical diagnosis b : based on or characterized by observable and diagnosable symptoms clinical treatment clinical tuberculosis Kleinman:Try writing a law and then get the person arrested or fired. Kleinman:Do you want me to tell you the instructions I give to patients that have an infection and being treated with antibiotics? Won't Theodoric's wife tell you? Or has Google failed to give you the expert advice. I'll give you a hint, start with the four classical signs of infection. You can give me your answer in Latin. That is where you begin addressing the problem.
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Percy Member Posts: 22388 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2
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Kleinman writes: The first step in trying to do a risk/benefit analysis is to correctly formulate the probability problem correctly. You haven't formulated the problem correctly and people like you won't correct your formulation when your errors are pointed out, such as the difficulty of implementing a general mask mandate. Again, I've never mentioned a general mask mandate, and I leave the epidemiological analyses to the epidemiologists. If you have epidemiological information that would be helpful to the discussion then please provide it.
This is the way you try to address your errors in the risk/benefit analysis for the implementation of a general mask mandate. I haven't conducted any risk/benefit analysis for the implementation of a general mask mandate that I've never mentioned, other than to tell you that I've never mentioned it.
Percy:Try writing a law and then get the person arrested or fired. Are you suggesting that to deal with pandemics government should pass and enforce laws with severe penalties for non-compliance?
Do you want me to tell you the instructions I give to patients that have an infection and being treated with antibiotics? Sure, tell us, but specific to respiratory infections contagious enough to cause pandemics.
I'll give you a hint, start with the four classical signs of infection. You can give me your answer in Latin. That is where you begin addressing the problem. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum. --Percy
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:Do you understand the difference between claiming masks work and imposing a mask mandate on the general population? Kleinman:Are you aware that general mask mandates have been imposed in some localities? Do they show that they have decreased the spread of Covid? And if not, why? Percy:That's the strategy that you and people like you try. Where is the data that shows that mask mandates decrease the spread of Covid? Kleinman:So you don't want the instructions that should be given to a patient when being put on antibiotics but the instructions for reducing the spread of their infection? Kleinman:If you are going to cut and past from Wikipedia, at least cut and past the correct answer. Inflammation - Wikipedia The five cardinal signs are heat, pain, redness, swelling, and loss of function (Latin calor, dolor, rubor, tumor, and functio laesa). Inflammation is a generic response, and therefore it is considered as a mechanism of innate immunity, as compared to adaptive immunity, which is specific for each pathogen.[3] Too little inflammation could lead to progressive tissue destruction by the harmful stimulus (e.g. bacteria) and compromise the survival of the organism. In contrast, too much inflammation, in the form of chronic inflammation, is associated with various diseases, such as hay fever, periodontal disease, atherosclerosis, and osteoarthritis.
Before you start claiming that there are five signs, loss of function is not one of the classical signs of infection. There is actually much more to identifying someone with an infection. Infections can be imposters of other diseases.
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Percy Member Posts: 22388 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2 |
Kleinman writes: Do you understand the difference between claiming masks work and imposing a mask mandate on the general population? Yes.
Are you aware that general mask mandates have been imposed in some localities? Yes.
Do they show that they have decreased the spread of Covid? And if not, why? The expectation would be that properly worn high-quality masks should reduce spread in public spaces.
Percy writes: Are you suggesting that to deal with pandemics government should pass and enforce laws with severe penalties for non-compliance? That's the strategy that you and people like you try. The only one raising this strategy here is you.
Where is the data that shows that mask mandates decrease the spread of Covid? Please see Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates — 10 States, March–October 2020 | MMWR for one.
So you don't want the instructions that should be given to a patient when being put on antibiotics but the instructions for reducing the spread of their infection? You referred generally to "an infection", so I requested that you focus on respiratory infections to keep discussion more relevant to the thread's topic, which is covid, a respiratory infection.
If you are going to cut and past from Wikipedia, at least cut and past the correct answer. That bit of Latin flotsam is used all over the Internet as filler. That was a joke. I put a smilie on it.
You asked about "the four classic signs of infection" but instead gave those for inflammation. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22388 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2 |
You seem very interested in mask mandates, so I did a little more searching. Here's another study on mask mandates: State-Level Masking Mandates and COVID-19 Outcomes in the United States. From the Conclusions section:
quote: And another: Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates — United States, March 1–December 31, 2020 | MMWR. From the Summary section:
quote: And another: Overview ‹ Association between COVID-19 Outcomes and Mask Mandates, Adherence, and Attitudes — MIT Media Lab. From the opening paragraph:
quote: It makes sense that to the extent that people properly wear high quality masks in public settings that spread would be reduced. --Percy
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:Based on that understanding, why can't you show the data that mask mandates work for reducing the spread of Covid? Kleinman:Do you have any data that these general mask mandate work? Kleinman:On what do you base that expectation that the general public would wear masks properly and the masks be effective? Kleinman:Where have I advocated for a mask mandate? Kleinman:Do you understand the difference between the spread of Covid and the decline in hospitalization from Covid? Kleinman:Do you understand the difference between the instructions in how to use antibiotics and the instructions that would guide a patient in reducing the spread of their infection, respiratory or otherwise? Kleinman:Oh, good joke. Kleinman:Aren't you aware that infections cause inflammation? Diagnosis and management of cellulitis | RCP Journals The classic presentation of rubor (redness), dolor (pain), tumor (swelling), calor (heat) are the hallmarks of cellulitis.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Percy:Why didn't you post this from your link: There were several limitations to our findings. First, our analyses may be subject to bias due to unmeasured confounding, incomplete control for measured confounders, and complex dependence. As previously discussed, examples of unmeasured common causes of the masking policy and COVID-19 outcomes included the (perceived) epidemic trajectory, the (perceived) compliance with prior public health policies, and the strength of the state’s public health department. There are likely many other factors; indeed, the spatial–temporal waxing and waning of COVID-19 is still poorly understood. Nonetheless, given the apparent differences between early and delayed states on measured confounders (e.g., population demographics and prior COVID-19 outcomes as shown in Table 1), we expected that our adjusted results were closer to the true effect than the unadjusted results. Of course, it is always possible that the unmeasured confounders balanced out the impact of the measured confounders.
Second, our adjusted analyses may be subject to bias due to incomplete control for measured confounding. As commonly occurring, the set of potential confounders was high dimensional, especially relative to our sample size (N=50 states). To improve data support and reduce the potential for bias due to violations of the positivity assumption,33 we reduced the confounder set based on univariate associations with the outcome. This approach should help avoid controlling for instrumental variables but also risks exclusion of a key confounder that is weakly associated with the outcome. In this application, the minimum and maximum of the estimated propensity scores were far from 0 and 1 (eTable 3; https://links.lww.com/EDE/B888). Third, our causal model explicitly assumed independence between states. Due to the infectious nature of COVID-19 and travel between states, this assumption was likely to be violated. In cluster randomized trials, such interference is expected to bias the effect towards the null52; however, in settings with complex network dependence, the impact of interference can be unpredictable.53 In all scenarios, ignoring interference and other sources of dependence will cause our confidence intervals to be overly precise. Future work could partially relax this assumption by adjusting for the preexposure COVID-19 outcomes of neighboring states.
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Percy Member Posts: 22388 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2
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Kleinman writes: Based on that understanding, why can't you show the data that mask mandates work for reducing the spread of Covid?... Do you have any data that these general mask mandate work? See Message 890.
On what do you base that expectation that the general public would wear masks properly and the masks be effective? That wasn't the expectation I expressed. I said that the expectation would be that properly worn high-quality masks should reduce spread in public spaces.
Where have I advocated for a mask mandate? I didn't say that you were. I said you were the one who keeps mentioning it.
Do you understand the difference between the spread of Covid and the decline in hospitalization from Covid? Not sure what you're saying here. If you're just asking if I know the difference, then yes I do. If you're implying a correlation between covid spread and declining covid hospitalization, then that seems unlikely to me.
Do you understand the difference between the instructions in how to use antibiotics and the instructions that would guide a patient in reducing the spread of their infection, respiratory or otherwise? You're asking if I know the difference between instructions for taking medication and the instructions for reducing contagion? If so then yes.
Percy:Aren't you aware that infections cause inflammation? Yes. Are you saying that the answer to your question about the four classic signs of infection is identical to the answer to the same question for inflammation? Because they're not. It isn't even an appropriate question for infection because the symptoms for infection can be incredibly varied due to the wide variety of diseases. It might be best to just stay focused on covid in this thread. Addressing this generally to the thread, I don't know if anyone has already posted this, but I found this message at Panda's Thumb: Evaluating Alan Kleinman's arguments --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22388 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 5.2
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Kleinman writes: Why didn't you post this from your link: Thank you for posting more content from the link. --Percy
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Tangle Member Posts: 9489 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Percy writes: Addressing this generally to the thread, I don't know if anyone has already posted this, but I found this message at Panda's Thumb: Evaluating Alan Kleinman's arguments It's been posted at least twice Percy. Several attempts have been made to reason with him but he is impervious - he's a religious nut job and troll with no hope of redemption. Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London. Olen Suomi Soy Barcelona. I am Ukraine. "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
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Stile Member Posts: 4295 From: Ontario, Canada Joined:
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I found that if I read Kleinman's messages - I don't have any idea what's going on.
But, if I read Percy's messages - I get the gist of the conversation. Not only that, even if I read only Percy's text (and ignore Kleinman's text that Percy quotes in his message...) - I can still follow the conversation just fine. I dunno - I just think that says a lot.
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4344 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 5.8
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I dunno - I just think that says a lot. It says everything!Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned! What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Kleinman:I see your Message 890 and raise it to Message 892 Kleinman:Why would you expect that? Kleinman:That's because you have false expectations about what the public would do. Kleinman:Who is more likely to be hospitalized for Covid, a child or an elderly person? Kleinman:Do you think the general public understands that distinction? And if so, do they understand those instructions without the physician having to explain those instructions? Percy:The Covid infection triggers inflammation, as do many other causes of injury to the tissues. Don't you want to know what the patient should understand when they are treated for an infection with antibiotics? Theodoric won't tell what his wife tells her patients, and Google doesn't tell you what the expert advice is. Don't you want me to tell you so that you can say, "That's obvious", except you won't tell us now? And Tangle has already pointed out my discussion with Felsenstein on Panda's Thumb. Do you know that Felsenstein refuses to do the mathematics for the Lenski experiment?
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Percy:I just don't buy your pseudoscientific tripe. Do you know Felsenstein's reason for not doing the mathematics of the Lenski experiment?
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 334 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
Stile:Math really isn't that hard.
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