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Member (Idle past 166 days) Posts: 3645 From: Indianapolis, IN Joined: |
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Author | Topic: Trump and Trump supporters keep using the Y2K Fallacy, and it is driving me crazy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
they will be less likely to have popular support for the actions they recommend. Oh, posh popular support. I am not optimistic. Not until people personally feel the effects themselves in ever increasing numbers. Something like taking a rich productive society and reducing through drought its social fabric to the point of civil war. Wait. We have that. Twice. More coming. Well, they're mostly brown so it's easy to not see it. Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.Factio Republicana delenda est.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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that's why we got pure food and drug laws, child labor laws, seat belt laws, civil rights laws etc. etc. etc. What planet are you from? The truth, which they have been given in spades, is ignored. We have those laws because we overcame the restrictive social fascists which still, to this day, ignore, flout and seek to overturn these programs. Note all the efforts by Trump & Co to rescind by executive order establish environmental protections even in the face of the reality of the dangers. Truth does not matter to a very large segment of our religious and racist society. We should always give the people the facts and the reasons, but, as shown in the last few days here, truth is not an impediment to stupid. I am not in the least bit optimistic that enough of this world society is intelligent or motivated enough to deal with the environmental damage we will suffer these next few hundred years. Just that time line alone is beyond their comprehension or care. We need to install highly restrictive programs on carbon emissions and other pollution controls. But the level of stupid and greed in our society is too great to establish such despite the truth being glaringly obvious. You, My dear, and we all, have nothing to be optimistic about. We are too stupid and greedy to deal with the environmental facts, the reality, the truth as we know it, and we, as a species, will suffer greatly because of it.Factio Republicana delenda est.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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Then suffering it is. Money is too valuable to waste on human beings.
Factio Republicana delenda est.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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... while Democrats believe idealistically in helping all of the people at the expense of individual interests...which is unrealistic. Where did this come from? What individual interests are you expecting to lose?
Besides...why does this stupid bill need to get paid? What if we just tear it up? The only Landlord that can evict us is reality itself. Sure. We can ignore the coming future of war, disease and famine humanity faces in the next few hundred years because of severe economic and social disruptions caused by long term shifting weather patterns and disappearing coastlines where most of us live on this planet. We're doing that anyway. And as we have seen recently, the USofA is not immune to unrest let alone the factional wars about to be unleashed. And we are too greedy, too concerned about our individual interests, to care. We can go extinct in the next few thousand years along with the rest of mammalia. Phat? Does any of this register with you? Like jar said present societies pay an increasingly steep price now or humanity, over the next few centuries, pays the cost in famine, disease and war to an unprecedented, species-threatening degree. Our judgement day, Phat, has already passed. We failed. Now the horsemen are loose upon us. Unfortunate for your dream of being saved by a cosmic ghost, what is happening is not from some ghost but is from us. And, as we have seen throughout all of human history and all of cosmic history there is no majik ghost out there to save us. As I've said before, waiting for some hoped-for ghost to save us is the most egregiously evil and fuckin'ly stupid excuse ever. Even ahead of greed.
If so, make everyone pay the same as a percentage of their income. Let's do that. Problem. The $$billionaires won't allow it. Got anything else? Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.Factio Republicana delenda est.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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One can get things done by lying to people, yes, but I think telling the truth is more effective at getting things done you really want done. We, the environmental anthropic warming crowd, are not lying to anyone. The nay-sayers and conspiracy nuts, the industrial elite and the whole capitalist edifice are lying to the world about how insignificant a few rain showers are and laugh when it snows outside sneering at "global warming". https://www.sciencedaily.com/...ses/2021/01/210111190141.htm But it doesn't seem to matter. Not enough people care. We missed one big tipping point about 50 years ago and we're approaching a more desperate tipping point in the next 30 years. We will miss it. By a lot. Like we didn't even try. Which we didn't.
In early 1941 it looked like an unlikely alliance of Soviet Socialism, National Socialism and Japanese Imperialism might doom us to a millennium of woe. But it didn't At the cost of 150 million dead in a world we are evolved to inhabit. Drastically change that environment, all over the globe, all at the same (relative) time, and layer on top of that a modern war conflict on the scale of WWII over multiple places on several continents. Not even close. Your analogy is way weak. Amsetri tre! Dif-tor heh smusma. Ehh ... Zephram's going to be a bit late getting here. Something about the capitol building. Factio Republicana delenda est.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
So you think scientists extrapolating from data is the same as some religious nutcase pulling prophecies out his ass? Foolish.
Someone, definitely not a climate scientist, overblows their essays with emotion and you treat it as if it was some official scientific pronouncement of the future. That is stupid, Sarah. Don't do that. Even the prognostications of the IPCC, The Climate Group, NOAA, WMO are not precise enough for the bullshit forecasts you cited. But they all agree on this: Global temperatures are rising and humans are the cause. This will inevitably lead to long term shifts in weather patterns and coastlines that will result in massive population dislocations most probably resulting in social disruptions and the famine, disease and war that usually accompany such changes long and short term. See Syria, Ethiopia/Eritrea/Somalia, Yemen. Disintegrated societies plagued by famine/disease then devastated by war all due to climate change. On Blaming Climate Change for the Syrian Civil War - MERIP You find solace in bashing the hyped prognostications of charlatans. We do talk and have been talking about tropical diseases, hurricanes, crop yields and such. We talk about the future of famine, disease and war. Then you come along centered on the scare tactics of charlatans and religious weenies and destroy that message with bullshit comparisons. You, my dear, are the very problem that is dooming us all with inaction.Factio Republicana delenda est.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
Dr. James Hansen or Dr. David Viner (climate researcher at the University of East Anglia) or the Environment ministry of the Maldives Care to show how these support your claims in Message 24?
By the way, if you're so worried about people who are "definitely not climate scientists" doesn't that write a lot of sensible people, from former V.P. Al Gore to Greta Thunberg, onto the pay-no-mind list? Why should it? They're popular and they spread the scientific understanding. Do you have a problem with that? Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given. Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
But the people I quoted above were, first of all, speaking from some position of authority (the environment director may or not have been a scientist, but the other two were) and, second, they got their facts (or, rather, their predictions) muddled. So what? Some responsible people were wrong about some future predictions from 30 years ago. That triviality means nothing. There are more issues here than chasing fake internet points.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
So they must be answered. No. The flame throwers who try to burn down the entirety of the science by finding fault in a few individuals, must be ignored.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
But the real problem here concerns predictions of doom No, Sarah. The real problem is we are burning up the world big time and there are far too many obfuscators sidetracking the narrative with picayune trivialities.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
Yet so far the trend actually continues to point towards those direst projections and what reality show is that human efforts have changed the timing but so far there is no indication that we have done anything more than postpone the consequences. True, we are in deep doo-doo, but I have seen no studies indicating any mediation-caused delay in this scheduled funeral for our species. Quite the opposite. Target goals are falling farther behind, being missed altogether with tipping points rushing at us faster than we had forseen. My message Message 718 In speaking of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
quote: Unfortunately, this same scene is being played out with ocean thermal gain, Antarctic ice melts and, the biggie, anthropic carbon emissions. It has all sped up these last few years. We're in worse shape than we thought. Our timeline to oblivion needs to be re-calculated to be well sooner that we thought. Edited by AZPaul3, : titleEschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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The Y2K problems that DID happen show what a meagre issue it all was: a 105 year old grandmother getting a notice about her first day at kindergarten, a plant employee binning an ingredient for a mixture because the computer told him it had expired 98 years ago. You know, disasters! And the hundreds of billions $$ that wouldn't transfer bank to bank because some computers thought those transactions had already been processed, a hundred years ago. And the newly input rail traffic schedules that wouldn't get implemented because they were "old". Yes, we saw them coming, disasters! And we fixed them before they happened. Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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Many, many hours.
Way back in 1995 I was on a team that was contracted to help BofA test their ACH and wire transfer programs. We copied all their production stuff to an isolated test partition and put up a database of live transactions from Dec-Jan 1994-95. We went through each record to update time/date stamps and coded security fields to Dec-Jan 99-00. The biggest headache setting up the test was the base system, IMS. IMS did not react well to having the sysclock set forward. The IBM guys on our team spent two days getting it right. Yes, two 24 hour days straight. We were under contract and you don't argue with the biggest gorilla in the financial world. The entire setup took 3 months. The tests did not go well. BofA spent the next year becoming Y2k compliant for ACH, FedWire, SWIFT and all. Many hours indeed. Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
There never really were any serious worries. Well, after 21 years, it's no use worrying about them now.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8685 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
It's always interesting to have some chucklehead swear that something I was directly involved in didn't happen. Your experiences can't be trusted. You, sir, are one of them real scientists with published papers and everything.Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.
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