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Author | Topic: A Year In Intelligent Design | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PaulK Member Posts: 18120 Joined: Member Rating: 6.0 |
Yes, I think the usual method of detecting design is to consider a positive design hypothesis and use inference to the best explanation. Purely negative arguments are an unreliable method - it’s too easy to miss possibilities.
However Dembski’s method is supposed to deal with identifying the pattern in retrospect. That’s the point of specification - the observed pattern is shown to be special. The problem Dembski missed at the time is that there are plenty of special patterns and the probability of getting any one of them is (usually) what you really need. I’ve seen writings where he tries to correct for this by calculating the number of possible specifications but it’s a really bad omission. The really weird thing though is that Dembski tried to sell his Complex Specified Information as an anti-evolution argument. But you can’t count any feature as CSI without ruling out evolutionary explanations. It makes me suspect that Dembski had a quite different argument in mind but couldn’t get it to work.
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A Certain Cyborg Member (Idle past 1801 days) Posts: 8 From: Alberta, Canada Joined: |
Would you mind elaborating? It's been a couple months since I've looked at any of this in depth.
Appended: Quoting wouldn't work earlier when I was trying to reply from my phone, so I'm fixing the post now for what I actually wanted to communicate. PaulK writes: ...the usual method of detecting design is to consider a positive design hypothesis and use inference to the best explanation. Purely negative arguments are an unreliable method - it’s too easy to miss possibilities. I'm not too familiar with the usual methods; I have an interest in Forensics, but I know too little to make a comparison between how the science actually works compared with Dembski's method. However, I do understand that Dembski's method is a 'negative', or exclusionary 'sieve'; it doesn't positively indicate design, and it only rules out the (purportedly) only other explanations. As for probabilities...
PaulK writes: Dembski’s method is supposed to deal with identifying the pattern in retrospect. I'm at a loss for how it is supposed to do this. Complex Specified Information makes sense to me, but he doesn't seem to propose a method to detect any specifications, they must be assumed. As for 'special patterns' and the probabilities of "getting" any of them, I don't know what you're referring to. In regards to possible specifications, I'd really like to see Dembski's chicken scratchings on that. Evolutionary mechanisms are ruled out a priori with his method not because of the 'necessary' sieve in his Explanatory Filter, but because natural selection doesn't specify positively any patterns of surviving organisms genome, right? Please correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm not a savant or even very well acquainted with evolution beyond the basics, but natural selection is the environmental pressure selecting negatively (akin to Dembski's sieve) the organisms which are unfit, and the rest of the population it is blind to, right? In other words, natural selection is simply death of the unfit, no? Edited by A Certain Cyborg, : I'm not going to try to respond from my phone again.
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PaulK Member Posts: 18120 Joined: Member Rating: 6.0
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Just time for one quick point.
If you look at Mt Rushmore (a favourite ID example) you don’t go I can’t think of a natural explanation, it must be designed - but you might well go humans carved that to honour famous people That is, Dembski’s method leaves design as an unexamined default. If you can’t think of a possible natural explanation for a pattern you are supposed to conclude design - even if you don’t have any idea at all of who might even want to do it. In contrast most people would think of an actual explanation involving design and compare that to the evidence.
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PaulK Member Posts: 18120 Joined: Member Rating: 6.0
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quote: The basic idea is pretty common. Given a fair coin the probability of any sequence of tosses depends only on the length. Obviously it would be daft to say that there must be something odd going on just because you’ve tossed a coins twenty times in a row. But if you get twenty heads in a row - which is a million-to-one shot you would be justified in thinking that maybe there is something making it come up heads. Dembski does have some ideas on what makes a specification valid and they aren’t too bad, but I don’t think that they are objective enough to call his design inference a mathematical proof. I may quote them later - I do have a copy of the book (remaindered - no way I’d have paid full price)
quote: Evolutionary explanations are supposed to be ruled out based on probability calculations. In reality I’ve never heard of Dembski coming close to doing that - in one case the reason was Behe said so which doesn’t even seem to be true.(In Darwin’s Black Box Behe admitted that there were indirect routes of evolution that sidestepped his argument. He assumed that they were too unlikely to count but never made an argument to that effect, and certainly never showed that the probability fell below Dembski’s probability bound. He was almost certainly wrong, too) quote: That’s not really accurate. Positive selection for beneficial traits is an important part of evolution. The simplest explanation is that, in aggregate, genes that help individuals successfully reproduce become more common while genes that hinder that become less common.
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
Evolutionary explanations are supposed to be ruled out based on probability calculations. In reality I’ve never heard of Dembski coming close to doing that - in one case the reason was Behe said so which doesn’t even seem to be true. This is an easy attack point for both Dembski's and Behe's positions. They each use different methods of ruling out evolution as a possibility and their critics have pretty much hammered away at those failings. The straight probability calculations are completely flawed. Here is one such critique: http://scienceblogs.com/.../dishonest-dembskithe-universal-1
quote: There is more in the article, but it is not hard to find any number of sound attacks on this probability BS. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door! We got a thousand points of light for the homeless man. We've got a kinder, gentler, machine gun hand. Neil Young, Rockin' in the Free World. Worrying about the "browning of America" is not racism. -- Faith I hate you all, you hate me -- Faith
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A Certain Cyborg Member (Idle past 1801 days) Posts: 8 From: Alberta, Canada Joined: |
PaulK writes:
Alright. Good to know I'm mistaken. It's been a while since I've read any Dawkins, and I haven't read any textbook explanations (which I should; I have several right next to me). I'll have to review the literature I have on hand before I consider these things further.
quote:That’s not really accurate. Positive selection for beneficial traits is an important part of evolution. The simplest explanation is that, in aggregate, genes that help individuals successfully reproduce become more common while genes that hinder that become less common.
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Taq Member Posts: 10450 Joined: Member Rating: 6.5 |
A Certain Cyborg writes: I haven't read The Design Inference, but I have printed out several pages of his seminal thesis (upon which the book and his subsequent writing about Complex, Specified Information is based) for reference. When I first started reading the arguments from the Intelligent Design community I was immediately interested in their claim (based on Dembskis claim) that it is being used in Forensic Science and Archaeology.It was a short order for me to cook up an argument probing my interlocutors as to exactly how the Design Inference would differentiate between four scenarios. Needless to say, they merely told me I should read the Design Inference (a seeming tacit admission that they haven't read it, or at least haven't understood it). Taking their bait, that's how I came to accessing Dembskis thesis (my library didn't have a copy of The Design Inference, but did have a copy of The Design Revolution which I was unimpressed by, to say the least). I've tried my best to comprehend it, but as I mentioned even Dembskis academic peers have criticized his writing for being misleading or hard to comprehend (and not because it's a difficult topic). Suffice it to say, those actually involved in Forensics and Archaeology aren't impressed. See: Chapter 8, written by Gary S. Hurd in 'Why Intelligent Design Fails'. From my surface understanding of the Design Inference, it is nothing more than a Designer of the Gaps argument backed by bad math. His main thesis seems to be "it is too improbable, therefore magic". Of course, internally his whole thesis hinges on getting the probabilities right, and from what I have seen he uses the Sharpshooter fallacy where probabilities are calculated after an event has occurred (which is the wrong way to do it). In a nutshell, if we look at evolutionary pathways down to the fine grained level of individual mutations then every evolutionary pathway is extremely improbable. The problem for Dembski's thesis is that the mere fact of the arrow of time guarantees that a highly improbable evolutionary pathway will occur due to the simple fact that mutations occur in large populations of organisms. It is equivalent to a sharpshooter painting the bullseye over his bullet hole. Edited by Taq, : No reason given.
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Taq Member Posts: 10450 Joined: Member Rating: 6.5
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PaulK writes: If you look at Mt Rushmore (a favourite ID example) you don’t go I can’t think of a natural explanation, it must be designed - but you might well go humans carved that to honour famous people If an archaeologists is digging in the ground and finds a potshard and an earthworm, which one does he take back to the museum as evidence of an intelligence? The potshard. If Dembski wants to claim that archaeologists are using the Design Inference, then he needs to explain why this is.
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PaulK Member Posts: 18120 Joined: Member Rating: 6.0 |
quote: Formally it is more everything else I can think of is proven too unlikely therefore some unspecified designer did it by unspecified means. That’s poor as science (since the conclusion is too damn vague), risks error (it’s too easy to miss something) and pretty much useless where he wants to apply it. (The calculations for evolution would be a ridiculous amount of work even if we had good figures)
quote: In my experience it’s more a case of he finds excuses not to do the calculations or does the wrong calculation entirely. He does actually take some steps to avoid the sharpshooter fallacy, but having a more or less valid methodology - in principle - is no good if the application is always seriously lacking.
quote: Yes, that is a potential flaw of the method but I haven’t seen Dembski do a good enough job of applying his method for that to be a real issue in practice. If Dembski ever gets to calculating the probabilities of evolutionary paths (and he may have, I haven’t looked at his work in the last few years) that might be an issue. But I haven’t seen him even try it, even when he should. So, I think you are missing the mark somewhat.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1793 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
If an archaeologists is digging in the ground and finds a potshard and an earthworm, which one does he take back to the museum as evidence of an intelligence? The potshard. If Dembski wants to claim that archaeologists are using the Design Inference, then he needs to explain why this is. One of the arguments I have used re neo-Paleyism is comparing watches (of course) to a kaleidoscope ... see Is ID properly pursued? (posted 2004) Enjoyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Taq Member Posts: 10450 Joined: Member Rating: 6.5 |
PaulK writes: Yes, that is a potential flaw of the method but I haven’t seen Dembski do a good enough job of applying his method for that to be a real issue in practice. If Dembski ever gets to calculating the probabilities of evolutionary paths (and he may have, I haven’t looked at his work in the last few years) that might be an issue. But I haven’t seen him even try it, even when he should. Then it ends up being a moot point. It would seem that the Explanator Filter is incapable of explaining biology, the very thing that ID is focused on.
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PaulK Member Posts: 18120 Joined: Member Rating: 6.0
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quote: It is still worth getting the criticisms correct. Aside from the fact that honest debate demands it - and that is important, errors on our part give opponents an advantage they don’t deserve.
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Phat Member Posts: 18762 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 3.4
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Dr.A writes: Here's the flagship journal of the wonderful new science of intelligent design. When it was launched in 2010 the Discovery Institute described it as "set to accelerate the pace and heighten the tone of the debate over intelligent design". In 2017 they've managed to produce two articles. Hooray! What a dizzyingly accelerated pace!2018 will mark the twentieth anniversary of the Wedge Document. Here are their twenty-year goals: * To see intelligent design theory as the dominant perspective in science. * To see design theory application in specific fields, including molecular biology, biochemistry, paleontology, physics and cosmology in the natural sciences, psychology, ethics, politics, theology and philosophy in the humanities; to see its influence in the fine arts. * To see design theory permeate our religious, cultural, moral and political life. I was curious if there has been any activity, research,or reason generated through the ID Community in 2018? If they generate so few articles yet seemingly go on the lecture circuit as pork n cheese brought to my attention in his new topic, I am naturally curious whether these scientists are simply in it for the money---earning a living through lecturing favorable creationist leaning audiences at churches and Christian schools? Edited by Phat, : No reason given.Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. —RC Sproul "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." —Mark Twain " ~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith You can "get answers" by watching the ducks. That doesn't mean the answers are coming from them.~Ringo
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 8740 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 5.6
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No. Like Francisco Franco, ID is still dead.*
* Old joke from Saturday Night Live mid 1970's
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Dr Adequate Member Posts: 16113 Joined:
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Well this year they have three articles. You may scoff, but that's a 50% increase. If this trend continues, in 35 years they'll be producing three million articles per year and in a century all the mass of the universe will have been converted into ID articles.
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